Could Bitcoin drop below 50k?

by | Jul 9, 2024 | Forex Analysis

CBDC

Could Bitcoin drop below 50k?

There are so many things happening around the financial world. If you haven’t been able to keep up with it, I suggest following Marc to Market. He is very good and has plenty of experience in the markets.

The Labour party (socialists) won in the UK, which is the start of a new government and potentially new decisions to reform the path of the UK’s economy. The GBP seems to have cleared of the range but stopped at the weekly trendline. Could it head higher?

The French elections continue today and will be the final round. Le Pen is expected to fail to gain outright control, which is seen as a positive for the Euro, but don’t rule out any surprises. I recommend waiting and seeing what the traders do on Monday after the opening. Don’t rush to take € trades until the results is in. If she does win then expect the €uro to tumble at least in the short term.

I have also provided an update on crypto. I told you in advance that we could see a drop in crypto. A huge amount of Bitcoin was expected to be dumped in exchanges, causing a big sell-off.

According to Blockworks, both the US and German governments have sent a combined $738 million to bitcoin exchanges over the last two weeks, suggesting that they will imminently be sold.

Also, Mt Gox has been selling up tp $9 Billion of Bitcoin and redistributing the lost assets back to its creditors. Hence, we are seeing selling pressure on Bitcoin, with potentially a drop towards 50k or just below, considering the amount of Bitcoin still left to be sold on the exchanges. In the video, I explained which levels I’m looking to buy more.

Bitcoin price declines

Bitcoin Nosedives Under 58k Amid Mt. Gox, German Government Wallet Movements.

Mt. Gox Starts Paying Back Creditors

I have noted MACD divergence on some stocks, S&P and Oil suggesting a possible reversal.

The Forex Week Ahead+++++++++++++++++++++++

For the week ahead, as already mentioned, the French election results are due today, so don’t trade the Euro at the open; let the markets process it. Powell testifies twice during the week, along with Yellen in the cabinet. The RBNZ will announce their cash rate decision on Wednesday morning, so either aim to be in and out of any NZD trades by then or wait until the news is out. Thursday could be a very volatile day as the US CPI is due out. It is very important as the FED is watching this data to decide when to forecast the first rate $ ratecut for this year.

++++++++++++++++++

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MAJORS

Remember I am looking for “A” grade trades from weekly & daily charts that I can place the orders and then just walk away. A “B” grade is of interest, but not an A yet. I will watch on 4 hour timeframes to see how price reacts if it hits my zone after the news is released.

There is a danger that the $ will rebound, so keep your eye on the Index and only be in one trade versus the dollar at a time.

EUR/USD: Not as clear cut yet because of elections. Technically 1.08 is a massive area so I would be looking long there and short at 1.0950

USD/CHF: Not going to trade until it  to clear the EMAs below

Do not take the Euro/$ & Chf at the same time. They are correlated so it’s the same “bet.”

GBP/USD: Moved higher but stopped at the weekly trendline and monthly 55ema, better opportunities elsewhere until that clears.

AUD/USD: Broken out of a weekly trendline. I am looking to split the trade at 0.6640 and 0.66170

NZDUSD: Would Long again at 0.6110, there is news on Wednesday.

USD/CAD: Bounced off 1.36 again which seems to be a strong support area. watch the DXY

USDYEN: Far away but 158 would be an area to long.

CROSSES

Some are A grades, where I will place forward orders; some pairs have “areas of interest.” I have a lot of similar crosses, so be very careful with the correlation.

EURGBP: I would short again at 0.8490

EURAUD: 1.60 seems to be massive as it has repeatedly bounced off it.

CADJPY: Watching 115 area for a possible long.

AUDCAD: Similar to AUDUSD, I will look to long at 0.9120

I have quite a few other “possibles” that I will monitor during the week. See the video. I also show areas where I will be interested to buy crypto and metals.

As always, remember correlation! 

New members, please note: If I am looking to take a trade long, for example, 1.5000, I place my order 10 pips above & 10 pips below for a short. This is because price often does not quite reach a major line and you need to allow for spreads.

We are NOT a “tipping service” we aim to teach you how to trade for yourself.

Watch the video below for more detailed explanations of this week’s analysis and trade plan.

To find out more about our crypto journey check out the mini-course and if you want to get involved in what I believe is the next boom, scroll to the bottom of the page to find out more: CLICK HERE

I am currently on holiday in the Canary Islands. I recorded the video early Saturday morning. If anything extra ordinary happens over the weekend I may need to revise my plans and Ashley or I will update you in the forum.

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You can watch the full video below, you can read the transcript or view the full screen by clicking the buttons below the video:

Kind regards,

Marc

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