Important Events and Indicators

Last week we saw the forex year really ‘kick off’ with quite a bit of movement on all pairs. You may recall me mentioning that Martin Luther King day was the ‘unofficial’ start to the trading year. With this in mind I thought I’d look at some important indicators, events, and dates you should definitely take note of.

Central Bank Meetings:
Meetings of major central banks, including the Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of Japan (BoJ), and Bank of England (BoE), can have a significant impact on currency markets. Traders focus on interest rate decisions, monetary policy statements, and press conferences.

Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Report:
Released on the first Friday of each month by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the NFP report provides crucial information about employment trends in the United States. It often leads to increased volatility in currency markets.

GDP Releases:
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reports are important indicators of economic health. Traders closely watch GDP releases for major economies, such as the United States, Eurozone, China, and Japan.

Inflation Reports:
Inflation data, including Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) releases, are closely monitored for signs of inflationary or deflationary pressures. Central banks use inflation data to make monetary policy decisions.

Trade Balance Reports:
Trade balance data, which reflects the difference between a country’s exports and imports, can impact currency values. Traders pay attention to trade balance releases for major economies.
Interest Rate Decisions:

Interest rate decisions by central banks have a profound impact on currency values. Traders watch for rate announcements and accompanying statements for signals about future monetary policy.
Political Events:

Elections, referendums, and major political events can introduce uncertainty and volatility to the forex market. Traders monitor political developments that may impact a country’s economic policies.

Bank of Canada (BoC) rate Decision:
The Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision is closely watched by forex traders, particularly those interested in trading the Canadian dollar (CAD).

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate Decision:
The RBA’s interest rate decisions and statements are important for traders focused on the Australian dollar (AUD).

Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Rate Decision:
The RBNZ’s interest rate decisions and comments are significant for traders involved in the New Zealand dollar (NZD).

OPEC Meetings:
Meetings of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) can influence oil prices, impacting currencies of countries heavily dependent on oil exports.

Economic Summits and G7/G20 meetings:
International economic summits and meetings of the Group of Seven (G7) and Group of Twenty (G20) nations can lead to discussions and agreements that impact global economic conditions and currency values.

Let’s look at some key charts
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DXY chart:
Note how price pulled back at the 200 ema

Gold:
Still looks to have found support at the 2000 level.


Oil;

Finding support at the $70 level.

Bitcoin:
Might pullback a little more, but 40k is a big level. Fundamentals are now behind BTC.

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Red flag news:
Make a note of the tentative Japanese news on Tuesday (GMT +3 below).

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MAJORS

EUR/USD: A grade long at 1.0800.

USD/CHF: Looking to short from around 0.88900

GBP/USD: Long from 1.2500. Counter from 1.2750 looks interesting.

AUD/USD: Looking to short from 0.66300 or 0.6600 (see video)

NZD/USD: I’m looking at 0.6100 to short.

USD/CAD: 1.3500 is a MASSIVE level for this pair. I’d look to short if it gets there again (see video)

USD/JPY: Looking to long from 145.900 potentially. Note the Yen news this week.


CROSSES

EUR/GBP: Short from 0.86300

EUR/CAD: Counter trend short from 1.4650 looks interesting.

AUD/CAD: I want to see how it reacts at 0.890 (see video)

GBP/AUD: Looking to short from 1.9200

GBP/CAD: Looking to long from 1.6860

GBP/CHF: See video for an update on the pattern we have been following.

AUD/NZD: I’m going to wait to see what price does at around 1.0800. BIG bullish momentum on Friday.

As always, remember correlation! -Especially when taking more than one JPY trade!

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M3 -Shorter timeframes.

I do my analysis on daily and weekly charts first and make a note of the MAJOR areas of support and resistance. Then copy them onto Pierre’s Earth and sky template. Then I make a note of the weekly & monthly pivots points and add them to the charts. You will see lots of opportunities line up during the week. The important thing then is to select a bias for the next few days and do NOT take trades if the price is too near a trend line or pivot. Ideally, you want to buy when the price is near a major support and or pivot point line and has the potential to make at least 40 pips. Vice versa for a short.

New members, please note: If I am looking to take a trade long, for example, 1.5000, I place my order 10 pips above & 10 pips below for a short. This is because price often does not quite reach a major line and you need to allow for spreads.

We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself. Watch the video below for more detailed explanations of this week’s analysis and trade plan (click the 4 arrows bottom right to view full-screen.

Regards
Thinus