Jackson Hole Symposium

by Thinus Briers | Aug 22, 2023 | Forex Analysis

Jackson hole

Jackson Hole Symposium

Jackson Hole refers to a valley located in the U.S. state of Wyoming, specifically in the Teton Range of the Rocky Mountains. It’s a picturesque area known for its stunning natural beauty, including majestic mountain views, pristine lakes, and abundant wildlife. The town of Jackson is situated within this valley and serves as a gateway to the nearby Grand Teton National Park and Yellowstone National Park.

However, the term “Jackson Hole” can also refer to an annual economic symposium that takes place in this region. The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium is an event organised by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. It brings together central bankers, financial professionals, academics, and policymakers from around the world to discuss important economic and monetary policy issues.

The symposium has gained significance over the years due to the prominence of the attendees and the topics discussed. It often features keynote speeches by influential figures, including central bank governors and prominent economists. The topics covered in the symposium can include discussions about monetary policy, economic outlook, financial market stability, and other key issues impacting the global economy.

The symposium’s importance lies in the fact that it provides a platform for central bankers and economic experts to exchange ideas, share insights, and engage in discussions that can shape monetary policy decisions and economic strategies on a global scale. The speeches and discussions at Jackson Hole can influence financial markets and investor sentiment, as they offer valuable insights into the direction of monetary policy and the economic outlook.

Some notable moments from the history of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium:

1982 – Inaugural Symposium: The first Jackson Hole Economic Symposium took place in 1982. It was initially a smaller event focused on fostering discussions about agricultural and rural issues. Over time, it evolved into a major international economic conference.

2010 – Bernanke’s Speech: In 2010, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke used the Jackson Hole Symposium to signal the possibility of a second round of quantitative easing (QE2) to stimulate the U.S. economy after the global financial crisis. This speech highlighted the Fed’s commitment to supporting economic recovery.

2012 – Draghi’s “Whatever It Takes” Speech: Mario Draghi, the President of the European Central Bank (ECB), delivered a highly influential speech at the 2012 symposium. He stated that the ECB would do “whatever it takes” to preserve the euro and ensure the stability of the eurozone. This statement is often credited with helping to calm markets during the European debt crisis.

2014 – Yellen’s Speech on Labour Markets: In 2014, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen used her speech at Jackson Hole to discuss labour market conditions and the challenges of interpreting employment data after the financial crisis. Her remarks offered insights into the Fed’s perspective on economic recovery and the timing of interest rate hikes.

2020 – Virtual Symposium and Pandemic Response: Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2020 symposium was held virtually. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announced a shift in the Fed’s policy framework to tolerate higher inflation for a period of time, signalling a more accommodative stance to support economic recovery.

2021 – Taper Talk: The 2021 symposium drew attention as central bankers discussed the timing and approach to scaling back the extraordinary monetary policy measures implemented in response to the pandemic. This event marked discussions about tapering bond purchases and potential interest rate hikes.

These moments are just a few examples of the impactful discussions and announcements that have taken place at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. The symposium continues to be an important platform for central bankers and economic leaders to communicate policy intentions, share insights, and shape the direction of global monetary policy.

DXY chart:
Broke and closed above the 200. There wasn’t a strong follow through though.

Energy & Metal Prices;

Gold;
Strong $ putting pressure on gold.

Oil;
Looks like we could see higher prices in oil now.

Bitcoin;
Failed at the 30000 level (which is a massive level). Big selloff this week.

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You can also follow us on Twitter https://twitter.com/marcwalton

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Red flag news:
EUR & GBP interest rate news this week.

MAJORS

See the video for a more detailed explanation on my thoughts on the majors.

EUR/USD: Long from 1.0800

USD/CHF: Short from 0.9060

GBP/USD: Long from 1.2500

AUD/USD: Short from 0.6700

NZD/USD: Short from 0.6200

USD/CAD: Long from 1.3350

USD/JPY: Leaving alone for now.

CROSSES

EUR/GBP: Short from 0.8610

EUR/CAD: *See video (Long from current position).

AUD/CAD: Short from 0.89700

GBP/AUD: Long from 1.92500

GBP/CAD: Long from 1.68500

GBP/CHF: See video.

AUD/NZD: Make your mind up time -see video

As always, remember correlation! -Especially when taking more than one JPY trade!

M3 -Shorter timeframes.

I do my analysis on daily and weekly charts first and make a note of the MAJOR areas of support and resistance. Then copy them onto Pierre’s Earth and sky template. Then I make a note of the weekly & monthly pivots points and add them to the charts. You will see lots of opportunities line up during the week. The important thing then is to select a bias for the next few days and do NOT take trades if the price is too near a trend line or pivot. Ideally, you want to buy when the price is near a major support and or pivot point line and has the potential to make at least 40 pips. Vice versa for a short.

New members, please note: If I am looking to take a trade long, for example, 1.5000, I place my order 10 pips above & 10 pips below for a short. This is because price often does not quite reach a major line and you need to allow for spreads.

We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself.

Watch the video below for more detailed explanations of this week’s analysis and trade plan (click the 4 arrows bottom right to view full-screen):

Regards
Thinus

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