Hi members,

In todays webinar Myself and Thinus went through the Earth and Sky and M2 set ups.

At the start I shared with you the current set ups I’m looking to trade and also the one I lost on this morning. The GBPCAD.
I shared this set up yesterday in my Monday update post which you can watch below.

Monday market update

GBPCAD
The reasons behind taking the trade. As you know we need Multiple reasons.
1) The GBPCAD broke back into the upper trendline closing below the Monthly 55 and weekly 200 EMA.
2) It had a very bearish candle close on the daily on Friday.
3) Fundamentals- OPEC made a surprise statement on the weekend saying they cut oil production. This led to OIL opening with a huge gap at the market open to the upside. As you know if OIL prices go higher this is better for the CAD as its one of the highest exporters of OIL. OIL is negatively correlated with USDCAD. Hence why I was shorting the GBPCAD.

But that didn’t work unfortunately because the GBP was surging today. There was no news about why this was happening although I knew the Dollar was weak. Thanks to one of our members in the webinar mentioned that the GBP and EUR are still expected to raise rates whereas the Dollar inflation has cooled down so the market is pricing in a possible pause in FEDs rate hiking. Also the economic data for the FED is expected to be weak hence why the Dollar is weakening further as Thinus mentioned.

So you can see above how the market sentiment has changed very quickly and the technical analysis got washed away like nothing. Market sentiment is something hard to measure as its what most people think about the market which is pretty much the professional traders as they move the markets. Hence why pay attention to the fundamentals and read what is happening in the markets. James in the forum has been very kind to share his fundamentals every week. You can see his latest post which I have shared as an article.

Fundamentals- lets focus

I also showed at the end that I spotted a head and shoulder pattern on the GBPCAD but this could play out in the future as the right shoulder could be forming as we speak.

image 2023 04 04 151045841

 

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You can watch the full webinar below:

Kind regards,

Ashley