HI, this was the recording from last weeks live training session that I host for members.
I show trades that are setting up for those using our strategies, answer questions and teach a subject.
This week I had made a plan on the weekend, as usual, BUT big unscheduled UK news meant I needed to revise it.
As you saw, the Gbp DID drop, so it helped us avoid losing trades.
Its very important that you check out news before the markets open and then before you take a trade (to make sure that nothing happened that could affect your decision).
Here are the notes from the session and the recording is at the bottom of the page.
Update to Mondays email, I talked about leaving all Gbp pairs alone. Wait and see if the price pulls back to the MAIN areas.
in todays session I started by explaining that trading does not need to be overcomplicated.
I start on a weekend by reviewing Forex Factory’s Calendar from the previous week and more importantly the upcoming one.
I also read background news from better quality news sites. I am trying to see if there has been a shift in sentiment.
I then do my technical analysis on weekly charts looking for “the sweet spot” where the price will probably react (trading is all about support & resistance and where price will probably bounce or break).
Then go to daily charts looking for multiple reasons for an entry, stop and the potential reward versus the risk, thats basically it!
Once you have found a few, is there any scheduled news that could screw it up, like the Cad this week.
Which one (s) look to have the best reward, place the trade, walk away.
Having done all that then unexpected news arrives so what to do?
You always need to pay attention to news -or me 🙂 then to be able to think on your feet.
Yesterday I sent out a cautionary email advising that due to unexpected news from the UK, be very careful with the Gbp.
This is an update on the UK news from Reuters today: Brexit Poker Games Begin
Also, there were attempted break downs in the S&P500 whose strength defies logic, and the Nasdaq a little less so.
Oil is dropping too and Bitcoin pulled back.
I have a feeling (based on almost 30 years of trading financial markets) that there’s trouble brewing! It didn’t happen yesterday, but don’t be surprised when it does.
How to Value a Currency & sentiment
As you know currency prices are valued based, in simple terms, on the growth, interest rates and inflation.
I explain in the video how you should think of this in the same way as if you were considering buying stocks and you are deciding between 2 companies, in the same sector.
Is the company upbeat about future sales growth, acquisitions, handouts to shareholders? Is the financial press supportive?
Is it paying a dividend (in the case of currency, think interest rates)?
I showed how to compare the $USA & the Euro.
However, the most difficult thing to try and work out is what is the current sentiment.
With the COVID crisis, all economies are in a mess and its very much a case of “which is least worse,” rather than better. Currently, the USD has been perceived to be weaker.
Near the end of the video, I also explained why I have been buying Crypto this year and why I have recommended all my family and friends should at the very least own some Bitcoin. I am NOT a licensed financial adviser, so this is not a “tip.” I am simply explaining my point of view and belief.
I will be hosting a live webinar on the subject later in the month.
M3 Shorter timeframes
See the new course & recent blog posts in the member’s area as to how I do this: I do my analysis on daily and weekly charts first and make a note of the MAJOR areas of support and resistance. Then copy them on to Pierre’s Earth and sky template. Then I make a note of the weekly & monthly pivots points and add them to the charts. You will see lots of opportunities line up during the week. The important thing then is to select a bias for the next few days and do NOT take trades if the price is too near a trend line or pivot. Ideally, you want to buy when the price is near a major support and or pivot point line and has the potential to make at least 40 pips. Vice versa for a short.
New members, please note: If I am looking to take a trade long, for example, 1.5000, I place my order 10 pips above & 10 pips below for a short. This is because price often does not quite reach a major line and you need to allow for spreads.
We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself.
For more up to the minute, updates do not forget to drop by the forum.
Watch the video for more detailed explanations of this week’s detailed analysis and trade plan.