Live: Will the $ weaken?
I covered for Thinus today as he couldn’t make it. I went through the M2 set ups for the week ahead and also showed you the Earth and Sky pairs.
Will the $ weaken?
Last week the DXY stopped above the 200 MA also taking out its previous high so I was a bit cautious about shorting the USDCHF as they are both correlated. You can see today that’s it heading up again. The $ could find resistance at 104.500 as shown in the video, which is where I might be interested to short it. If it breaks above then my bias would be to long the Dollar.
However, there are some other clues I had shown in the webinar. Mike Maloney has warned about the 10yr yield bonds as they have broken the previous highs and sit above 4%. He has shown in his video every time this has happened something has broken. He also spoke about the $92 billion worth of commercial real estate which are up for renewal and the probability is that most of these owners can’t afford to pay the new higher rates for the rent as the costs have risen.
Furthermore, Michael Burry who predicted the 2008 recession is heavily short on the S&P 500 and NASDAQ putting in a $1.6 billion bet against the US economy to crash by the end of the year. That is 90% of his portfolio. That is very risky as he is betting against the U.S. economy. You can read that below.
However, things could change quite quickly as China’s largest real estate company Country Garden as they have missed two dollar-denominated payments. Their share price plummeted last week and is down 40% compared to last month. If they default or miss another payment investors could rush to the $ as It is considered as a safe haven.
So it’s best not to leave any trades over the weekend and close them by Friday evening before the market closes.
You can watch the full webinar below: