Good morning everyone.
We had a little bit of a bumpy ride this week as the Easter long weekend had a huge impact on the performance of the currency pairs this week. Volumes and momentum were low.
We had some triangle break outs this week but I was not keen to take them as my feeling was that I couldn’t trust the moves with the volume/momentum that`s been so low.
Pairs that’s drawing my attention at the moment will have to be:
1) Euro/Dollar
2) GBP/Dollar
3) GBP/JPY inverse head and shoulder – price currently sitting at the neckline
4) Aussie/JPY
5) Dollar/JPY
6) Dollar/CAD head and shoulder neckline that broke to the downside
and the outside horse…..
7) Dollar/CHF currently at the daily 200 EMA and MR1 pivot at 0.9637 so possible roadblock here
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LETS HAVE A LOOK HOW WE DID WITH OUR ANALYSIS FOR THE WEEK:
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1) Euro Index on the DAILY chart:
Notes:
The direction Indi shows short on the 4 hour and long on the daily. We camping out at loads of EMA`s at 108.41 and by the looks of it we might be trapped in a triangle for now.
I will prefer to look for shorts from the top area at 109.53 where we have previous resistance or long from the support area at the MS1 pivot at 107.65 and daily 200 EMA at 107.15.
Fridays notes:
This one still trapped in the triangle, My plan is still to look for shorts from the top area at 109.53 or longs from the MS1 pivot at 107.65 or the daily 200 EMA at 107.17.
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2) Euro Dollar on the DAILY chart:
Notes:
The direction Indi shows short on the 4 hour and long on the daily. We camping out at loads of EMA`s at 1.2318 and by the looks of it we might be trapped in a triangle for now.
I will prefer to look for shorts from the top area at 1.2482 where we have previous resistance or long from the support area at the MS1 pivot at 1.2160.
Fridays notes:
This one broke the triangle to the downside this week. Two options – one is to wait for a pullback to the monthly main pivot and EMA`S at 1.2294 followed by a short set up…..two is to wait for support at the MS1 pivot at 1.2160 or the 200 EMA and MS2 pivot at 1.1996 to go long again.
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3) Euro JPY on the DAILY chart:
Last week we closed plus 140 pips higher than the opening BUT the main trend is still short – we can’t fib the 4 hour to get a short zone and have to fib the daily chart.
Currently, I have an Earth and Sky short zone between 130.60 and 131.57 with areas to keep an eye on the 130.75 and 131.26/44 and 131.70 resistance areas where after I will re look to short this pair again.
Possible counter longs at 129.00 support areas.
Notes:
While the 55 EMA holds at 131.70 my bias will be to look for shorts.
Fridays notes:
Currently, in my Earth and Sky short zone…..my bias will be to look for shorts while we under the 55 EMA now at 131.67. If we break to the upside for some reason……my next area to look for shorts will be at the MR1 pivot at 132.63 where we also have last month’s high.
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4) Euro GBP on the DAILY chart :
Last week we closed plus 38 pips higher than the opening BUT the main trend is still short – we can’t fib the 4 hour to get a short zone and have to fib the daily chart.
Currently, I have an Earth and Sky short zone between 0.8818 and 0.8893 with areas to keep an eye on the 0.8809 and 0.8818 and 0.8829 resistance areas where after I will re-look to short this pair again.
Possible counter longs at 0.8667 and 0.8650 support areas.
Notes:
While the 200 EMA holds at 0.8829 my bias will be to look for shorts.
Fridays notes:
Price didn’t give us the correction we wanted. Levels to look for shorts will stay the same as mentioned above.
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5) GBP Dollar on the DAILY chart:
Last week we closed min 111 pips lower than the opening BUT the main trend is still long – we can’t fib the 4 hour to get a long zone and have to fib the daily chart.
Currently, I have an Earth and Sky long zone between 1.3979 and 1.3845 with areas to keep an eye on the 1.3987 and 1.3946 support areas where after I will re-look to long this pair again.
Possible counter shorts at 1.4184 and 1.4245 and 1.4272 resistance areas.
Notes:
While the 55 EMA at 1.3946 holds my bias will be to look for longs.
Fridays notes:
Price currently hitting key support areas now as we finding the daily 55 EMA at 1.3955. While it holds my bias will be to look for longs……however….if it breaks for some reason I will be careful as we might go visits the MS1 pivot and last month’s low at 1.3712 where I will re-look for support to go long.
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6) GBP JPY on the DAILY chart:
Notes:
Leaving this pair alone for now. The direction Indi is mixed on the 4 hour and daily plus looks like we might have an inverse head and shoulder forming here…..little ugly but it’s there….can you spot it?
Fridays notes:
Still in that inverse head and shoulder pattern here currently testing the neckline at 150.30
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7) Aussie Dollar on the 4 hour chart:
Currently, I have an Earth and Sky short zone between 0.7701 and 0.7730 with areas to keep an eye on the 0.7695 and 0.7704 resistance areas where after I will re-look to short this pair again.
Possible counter longs at 0.7632 support areas.
Notes:
If we break the 55 EMA at 0.7704 to the upside for some reason….then I will re-look to short from the WR1 pivot at 0.7747 and the 200 EMA`S at 0.7773 area.
Fridays notes:
Price broke the 55 EMA at the 50% fib this week to the upside but the 62.5 fib at 0.7715 gave the resistance we wanted. Price turned bearish and we slowly working our way lower to the main profit take at last week’s low at 0.7643.
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8) Aussie JPY on the DAILY chart:
Last week we closed plus 88 pips higher than the opening BUT the main trend is still short – we can’t fib the 4 hour to get a short zone and have to fib the daily chart.
Currently, I have an Earth and Sky short zone between 82.52 and 83.53 with areas to keep an eye on the 82.52 and 82.95 and 83.39 resistance areas where after I will re-look to short this pair again.
Possible counter longs at 79.95 support levels.
Notes:
While the 55 EMA at 83.39 holds my bias will be to look for shorts to set up.
Fridays notes:
Price gave us the correction we wanted…..and getting to our resistance areas at the 50% fib at 82.52 and 82.83 and 83.33 where I will re-look to short this pair.
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9) Dollar JPY on the DAILY chart:
Last week we closed plus 150 pips higher than the opening BUT the main trend is still short – we can’t fib the 4 hour to get a short zone and have to fib the daily chart.
Currently, I have an Earth and Sky short zone between 105.03 and 106.60 with areas to keep an eye on the 106.00 and 106.65 resistance areas where after I will re-look to short this pair again.
Possible counter longs at 104.81 support areas.
Notes:
If the 200 EMA at 106.65 breaks to the upside for some reason then I will re-look at the 55 EMA and MR1 pivot area for a short setup at 107.47.
Fridays notes:
Nasty one this…..price broke our Earth and Sky short zone to the upside……but slamming now into key resistance at the MR1 pivot at 107.47 so take note as we can slow down here now followed by a short set up.
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10) Dollar CAD on the DAILY chart:
Notes:
Leaving this one alone for now. We have a big support area between 1.2826 and 1.2749 on this pair…BUT there might be a head and shoulder pattern forming here so we need to keep an eye on this.
Fridays notes:
Price broke the head and shoulder neckline to the downside this week. Currently, we finding support at the daily 200 EMA but be careful – if this support break we can drop deep to get to the head and shoulder target of 300 pips.
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11) Dollar Index on DAILY chart:
Notes:
The direction Indi shows long on the 4 hour and short on the daily. We camping out at loads of EMA`s at 89.93 and by the looks of it we might be trapped in a triangle for now.
I will prefer to look for shorts from the top area at 90.95 where we have previous resistance or long from the support area at the 88.94 support area.
Fridays notes:
Price broke the triangle to the upside. Two ways to play this now…….one is to wait for a pullback followed by an M2 long set up from 90.07 area or two is to wait till price gets to the MR1 pivot at 91.00 and then to look for possible short setups again.
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Regards
Pierre
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