Weekly Analysis: $ Reversal clues

by | Aug 15, 2023 | Forex Analysis

Reversal

Weekly Analysis: $ Reversal clues

There were some very good setups this week which we had shared in the forum and also the webinar. One of them missed my entry by a few pips and went on to do 100!. I was in the EURGBP on Thursday but got out at breakeven on Friday as I didn’t want to hold it over the weekend.

 

Most of the traders were expecting the $ to drop if the news came negative or go up if it was positive. But neither of those happened. The news came out as expected with a slightly lower CPI reading and the $ actually went up.

This is why we always recommend not to trade the news as its a perfect opportunity for big players to catch the retail traders on the wrong side of the trade. So always let the dust settle and then look to enter if there is an opportunity.

In the video I showed you, there are plenty of clues that the $ could drop in the week ahead. It is coming to its previous high, you have the 200 MA and also a clear downtrend. The USDCHF looks very similar and also GOLD is at a crucial point of reversal.

I still have a bearish bias towards the $ unless it breaks above the 200 MA. Also, the CPI news this week gives us another clue that they will most likely keep rates on hold. Watch the video for more clarity.

The Forex Week Ahead+++++++++++++++++++++++

For the week ahead you have Tuesday will most likely be very volatile as you have news for the AUD, GBP unemployment, CAD CPI y/y, and USD retail sales. So it will be tricky to trade until all of that is out of the way.

Then on Wednesday, you have the NZD cash rate announcement overnight, so make sure not to open any trades on NZD pairs until the news is out. Followed by that you also have the GBP CPI y/y on Wednesday, but wait until London open to see what happens as the GBP is most active in that session.

MAJORS

Keep watching the $index it is now at a major “make your mind up” area once again on the weekly charts. It is now stuck at the 55EMA and you have the 200 EMA just above it. If it could break above that we could be looking at $ strength.

Remember I am looking for “A” grade trades from weekly & daily charts that I can place the orders and then just walk away. A “B” grade is one that I will watch on 4 hour timeframes to see how it reacts if it hits my zone.

EUR/USD: A grade at 1.07900 , intra-day long  at 1.08500

USD/CHF: Interested to short at 0.88275 for multiple reasons. Watch the DXY for clues when price is closer.

Do not take the Euro/$ & Chf at the same time. They are correlated so it’s the same “bet.”

GBP/USD: Price action very messy, Leaving it alone as its trapped between EMAs.

AUD/USD: Interested to short on 4HR at 0.66700

NZDUSD: Too far away.

USD/CAD: Interested to long at 1.33260.

USDYEN: At its previous high, could reverse or breakthrough, leaving it alone.

CROSSES

Some are A grades where I will place forward orders, most pairs have “areas of interest.” I have a lot of similar crosses so be very careful with the correlation.

EURGBP: Its quite messy at the moment I prefer a break below all EMAS and then a short.

GBPAUD: Looking for a long at 1.93130 for multiple reasons, watch the video.

GBPCAD: 1.70160 for a long.

EURCAD: Far away but 1.44950 for an A grade long.

EURNZD: Looking to long at 1.74150 for multiple reasons.

AUDJPY: Forward order in the same region as last time 91.90

CADJPY: Similar to AUDJPY , Forward order at 101.900

GBPCHF: Short on 4HR at 1.12150

As always, remember correlation! 

M3 -Shorter timeframes.

I do my analysis on daily and weekly charts first and make a note of the MAJOR areas of support and resistance. Then copy them onto Pierre’s Earth and sky template. Then I make a note of the weekly & monthly pivots points and add them to the charts. You will see lots of opportunities line up during the week. The important thing then is to select a bias for the next few days and do NOT take trades if the price is too near a trend line or pivot. Ideally, you want to buy when the price is near a major support and or pivot point line and has the potential to make at least 40 pips. Vice versa for a short.

New members, please note: If I am looking to take a trade long, for example, 1.5000, I place my order 10 pips above & 10 pips below for a short. This is because price often does not quite reach a major line and you need to allow for spreads.

We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself.

Watch the video below for more detailed explanations of this week’s analysis and trade plan (click the 4 arrows bottom right to view full-screen):

Kind regards,

Ashley

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