If you have been following my analysis and updates in the forum you would have seen that I caught around 460 pips from 3 pre-planned trades this week.
The markets were volatile on Thursday when the CPI news came out as we expected. CPI figures came out worse than expected or rather signs to show that inflation is slowing down. What this could mean is the FED might not raise rates aggressively going forward. Which is probably what the market is pricing in.
Signs of Reversal?
I think Yes. I have been waiting for a break of structure confirmation on the majors for the past couple of weeks. We finally got that this week and I have my bias to long the majors next week. However, I would prefer the 105 region on DXY to be tested. If it breaks that support then we could head for a long way down.
GOLD has also broken previous highs, the 200 MA and structure, and stopped right at the 55 MA on the weekly. It is a very Bullish candle also taking out previous price action and showing that buyers have stepped into the market. Longs anywhere near 1678 looks very attractive on the pullback. Here in India one of the gold merchants said to my aunt it could be the last chance to buy GOLD at the current price. It could keep heading higher going forward!
GOLD is a very precious commodity in India and has a lot of importance in our community. Every year there are millions of people buying GOLD here and it has a high demand during the wedding season.
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The Forex Week Ahead
The week ahead look pretty calm to trade as we don’t have plenty of news every day. Out of all the days, Wednesday looks the toughest and we will need to have a plan before entering a trade for that day. It is a big day for the GBP as they have the CPI release. Then you have the CAD CPI followed by the US retail sales. Probably best to leave the majors alone that day or trade the pair after the news.
I have also warned in the video to keep an eye out for UK unemployment figures on Tuesday morning. It always shows as yellow for some reason when it should be orange or red at least.
The market has been giving more trade opportunities on the cross-pairs for many months. Don’t go looking for trouble but make sure you manage and trade around the news. You must have learned by now just because a country raises its interest rates doesn’t mean its currency will go up at that moment.
Remember I am looking for “A” grade trades from weekly & daily charts that I can place the orders and then just walk away.
EUR/USD: I think it’s time for a reversal as it has broken its structure and previous highs. I would look to long anywhere near the Parity region 1.0000 on the pullback.
USD/CHF: Looking to short at 0.95800 on the pullback near the EMAS.
GBP/USD: Same as the EURUSD. A pullback to 1.14026 for a long is attractive.
AUD/USD: A grade short at 0.71647
NZDUSD: Looking to short near 0.66560.
USD/CAD: Don’t touch where it is now. Seems like it has broken a Head and Shoulder pattern worth 460 pips. A grade long near 1.30 region, we have multiple reasons there.
USDJPY: I don’t trade this pair, only using it for the YEN direction so I can trade cross pairs.
EURGBP: A grade long at 0.86300.
EURCAD: Anywhere near 1.3750 is much safer for a short.
EURNZD: Only interested to long at 1.65350
EUR/AUD: Could look to range trade between 1.56400 and 1.53700
GBPAUD: I want to short around 1.78370
NZDCHF: longs look attractive around 0.57000
GBPNZD: Had a 200 pip winner last week. Would look to short again at 1.95090
AUDCAD: 0.89900 is the A-grade short region.
AUD/NZD: Short worked pretty well at 1.10050. Would look there again.
CHF/YEN: Long at 145 worked last week but would leave it alone for now.
GBP/YEN: Very volatile pair. 160 is the area I would look for a long.
CAD/CHF: 0.73500 is an A grade short for me. failed the previous week, worked last week for 250 pips 🙁
AUDCHF: 0.64830 and 0.66040 are interesting areas for a short.
As always, remember correlation!
We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself.
Watch the video below for more detailed explanations of this week’s analysis and trade plan (click the 4 arrows bottom right to view full-screen):