Weekly Analysis: Tough week ahead

by Ashley DeSousa | Sep 11, 2023 | Forex Analysis

FOMC

Weekly Analysis: Tough week ahead

Hi all,

Marc will be posting his ideas for the week ahead later but will be focusing on the bigger picture. Hence I have made a video to focus on the shorter time frames.

The $ has been very bullish for the past few weeks amid fears in China, strong employment figures, and inflation showing slowing down. This week we have the CPI reading for the USD and its expected to show higher number and inflation to peak a little. If it does it’s another sign that the FED could hike one more time this year to end the $ strong for this year.

The Gov Ueda of Japan Bank tried to talk down the YEN but it didn’t really work but has suggested they are willing to step into the market if the price reaches a certain level. So expect a big drop in the months ahead if they step in. However, I would say for now there is a chance to catch a move to the upside and get out before it gets to 150.

The EURUSD is definitely a better bet right now to short as the GBPUSD is stuck in a small range as shown in the video. Until that breaks I’m not looking to short. I got out of it this week for a small loss before it actually went further down, so avoided a full loss there. I made some profits on the GBPAUD but was around 75 pips. Couldnt make the video as I was out.

Also, a point to note is the correlation has changed on some pairs so refresh your tables on MATAF and have a look. GBPUSD and GBPJPY which are correlated 80-90 % of the time are now negatively correlated.

The Forex Week Ahead+++++++++++++++++++++++

For the week ahead we have plenty of news and it’s one of those tough weeks. I would say make a plan if you are looking to get into a trade and get out or at least protect your trade before the news is out. Tuesday unemployment figures for GBP. Wednesday you have the USD CPI which is very volatile. Then on Thursday EUR Finance rates and USD retail sales will be released around the same time. Probably best not to trade that day until all of it is out of the way.

MAJORS

Keep watching the $index it is now at a major “make your mind up” area once again.

Remember I am looking for “A” grade trades from weekly & daily charts that I can place the orders and then just walk away. A “B” grade is one that I will watch on 4 hour timeframes to see how it reacts if it hits my zone.

EUR/USD: Trendline break on Daily, so I’m looking for the short at 1.07800

USD/CHF: Nowhere to put my stop, prefer the EURUSD

Do not take the Euro/$ & Chf at the same time. They are correlated so it’s the same “bet.”

GBP/USD: Watch the video its stuck in a small range I need that broken before thinking of a short.

USD/CAD: Interested to long at 1.35250 on 4HR

USDYEN: Likely to go higher despite BOJ trying to verbally intervene. 145 is an area of interest to long.

CROSSES

Some are A grades where I will place forward orders, most pairs have “areas of interest.” I have a lot of similar crosses so be very careful with the correlation.

EURGBP: Looking to split the order to short at 0.8630 and 0.8645

GBPAUD: 1.9350 is an interesting area too long but it’s a wild pair.

EURAUD: Correlated with GBPAUD so pick one, I prefer GBPAUD for the reasons mentioned.

EURCAD: Far away but 1.44950 for an A grade long.

GBPCAD: Trendline break, looking to short at 1.70470

AUDJPY: Forward order in the same region as last time 91.90

NZDCAD: 0.8265 is an area of interest to short.

AUDCAD: 0.89450 is an A grade short

As always, remember correlation!

M3 -Shorter timeframes.

I do my analysis on daily and weekly charts first and make a note of the MAJOR areas of support and resistance. Then copy them onto Pierre’s Earth and sky template. Then I make a note of the weekly & monthly pivots points and add them to the charts. You will see lots of opportunities line up during the week. The important thing then is to select a bias for the next few days and do NOT take trades if the price is too near a trend line or pivot. Ideally, you want to buy when the price is near a major support and or pivot point line and has the potential to make at least 40 pips. Vice versa for a short.

New members, please note: If I am looking to take a trade long, for example, 1.5000, I place my order 10 pips above & 10 pips below for a short. This is because price often does not quite reach a major line and you need to allow for spreads.

We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself.

Watch the video below for more detailed explanations of this week’s analysis and trade plan (click the 4 arrows bottom right to view full-screen):

Kind regards,

Ashley

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