{"id":218239,"date":"2022-08-15T11:11:32","date_gmt":"2022-08-15T10:11:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.forexmentorpro.com\/blog\/?p=218239"},"modified":"2022-08-15T15:12:51","modified_gmt":"2022-08-15T14:12:51","slug":"remember-the-bigger-picture","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.forexmentorpro.com\/blog\/remember-the-bigger-picture\/","title":{"rendered":"Remember the bigger picture!"},"content":{"rendered":"

Hi everyone,
\nThe USD news has been a very mixed bag.
\nSofter (weaker) inflation news + negative GDP + better job earnings = confusion in the markets.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

My biggest advice is that you don’t mistake all of this ‘good’ news for prolonged USD weakness. The overall picture still very much favours a stronger USD and a more ‘risk-off’ environment. It’s probably a good idea to not be too greedy with your profit targets as I suspect it might be quite choppy for a while.<\/p>\n

Let’s look at the facts….<\/p>\n

-Inflation remains VERY high around the world.
\n-Oil prices are still high and Europe has an energy shortage
\n-The US is probably<\/em> in a recession already.
\n-The war in the Ukraine rages on…will they stop by the European winter…who knows.
\n-Europe is facing a massive drought.\u00a0 LINK\u00a0<\/a><\/p>\n

DXY chart -don’t mistake a pullback or price struggling at a big level for a bearish bias. This is still a VERY bullish chart \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n

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Commodity prices;
\n<\/strong>A lot of commodities seem to have found some buyers this month. To me this means we might be seeing a stronger AUD. Remember a weaker dollar usually means higher commodity prices.<\/p>\n

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Gold;<\/strong>
\nAs shown in the live session this week, Gold is struggling at 1800. I believe that a break above this level could see a big rise in price, but with the mixed news of lower<\/em> inflation, this might take a while.<\/p>\n

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Oil;
\n<\/strong>Also affected by the mixed inflation news, oil has now fallen below the 200 ema. A cheap oil price doesn’t make sense to me fundamentally though.<\/p>\n

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Bitcoin;
\n<\/strong>Seemingly found some buyers at the 23000 price level. Could this be a short squeeze? I tend to lean towards this scenario. I hope I’m wrong…<\/em><\/p>\n

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You can also follow me on Twitter https:\/\/twitter.com\/marcwalton<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

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The Forex Week Ahead<\/h4>\n

Big one for the week ahead is US retail sales on Wednesday (below time is GMT +2). Remember that even though the AUD and NZD news is ‘on tap’ (available already), there are no guarantees in Forex, so stay cautious.<\/p>\n

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Trade for clients & receive a substantial profit share<\/p>\n

If you want to receive a substantial profit share you only need to make 3 to 5% per month. You can find a copy of the brochure here: Trade for Clients<\/a><\/p>\n

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MAJORS<\/strong><\/p>\n

EUR\/USD: Big resistance at 1.0370. If it breaks above this level, I’d look for longs on the smaller timeframes. A grade short from around 1.08300<\/p>\n

USD\/CHF: Will look at the open for a potential short. Not looking to be too greedy with the take profit though (see video)<\/p>\n

GBP\/USD: Same idea as the Eur\/Usd. 1.221 is big. If it can brake above this level I’d look to long on the longer timeframes. A grade short from 1.27500<\/p>\n

AUD\/USD: Be very careful with this one. The current position looks good for a short, but with commodity prices increasing we could see an even stronger AUD. 0.700 was a huge level that has now been broken.<\/p>\n

NZD\/USD: Highly correlated to the AUD\/USD, but keep an eye on the 0.65500 level for a short<\/p>\n

USD\/CAD:\u00a0 A little messy now with the mixed news, but I’m looking at a new range now.\u00a0 1.27500 is key. If it breaks below this level, I’d look to short to around the 1.2500 level and then to long from this level (see video)<\/p>\n

USD\/JPY: Looking to short from the current position on the smaller timeframes. (see video)\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

CROSSES<\/strong><\/p>\n

EUR\/GBP: Worked last week, but unfortunately on Friday. Same area for a short 0.84800<\/p>\n

AUD\/CAD: Same advice as the AUD\/USD -0.91000 for a possible short<\/p>\n

AUD\/NZD: Still looking for a countertrend trade from 1.12200. Long from 1.0880<\/p>\n

EUR\/CAD: A grade for me is a short at\u00a01.37600 (far away though)<\/p>\n

NZD\/JPY: On the 4H chart, I’m looking at 84.900 for a long.<\/p>\n

GBP\/JPY: Long from 160.00<\/p>\n

EUR\/JPY: Long from 135.400<\/p>\n

GBP\/CHF: Looking at the weekly, I like the look of a short from 1.2100<\/p>\n

As always, remember correlation! -Especially when taking more than one JPY trade!<\/strong><\/p>\n

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We are NOT a \u201ctipping service\u201d our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself.<\/p>\n

Watch the video below for more detailed explanations of this week\u2019s analysis and trade plan (click the 4 arrows bottom right to view full-screen):<\/p>\n