{"id":743,"date":"2016-10-16T15:51:41","date_gmt":"2016-10-16T14:51:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.forexmentorpro.com\/blog\/?p=743"},"modified":"2017-02-03T15:21:30","modified_gmt":"2017-02-03T15:21:30","slug":"theory-into-practice-the-update-and-the-fed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.forexmentorpro.com\/blog\/theory-into-practice-the-update-and-the-fed\/","title":{"rendered":"Theory Into Practice: The Update And The Fed."},"content":{"rendered":"

It appears there is\u00a0more disagreement inside\u00a0the Fed than we may have imagined. It was called a ‘close call’ in the September meeting as the FOMC minutes released\u00a0today revealed,even though the rates were left unchanged. So does that mean there is a chance of a rate hike in November? It is still not likely with the presidential election a few days after the November meeting. The chances for a December hike have increased and the USD has enjoyed the more hawkish interpretation.<\/p>\n

\"tip_usdx_2016-10-12_2150\"<\/p>\n

The S&P 500<\/strong> as you would expect were not so keen on the gloss as it has implications for stocks with the prospect of less easy money around;<\/p>\n

\"tip_sp_500_2016-10-12_2153\"<\/p>\n

This is still on our list and has broken out of the consolidation. It is not ready yet as we will wait for the breach and acceptance under the monthly low…2100 is the critical level and it is worth the wait with the excellent risk\/reward it will offer.<\/p>\n

The oil price is always important to watch. It is fighting a weekly resistance and the fundamentals would lead us to doubt the ability it has to break through. I discussed this in the weekly blog. There are problems with follow through on any agreement, problems\u00a0with enforceability and more importantly more production possible from the non-OPEC\u00a0group who could easily fill the ‘freeze’ gap.<\/p>\n

\"tip_oil2016-10-12_2155\"<\/p>\n

The weekly level is the one to watch<\/p>\n

The other piece of the jigsaw this week is the retail data from the US which is due Friday. If it misses it will dilute the optimism from the latest release.<\/p>\n

Much of our watchlist involves a wait for\u00a0pullbacks on pairs which\u00a0have seen a breakthrough but that is just the way it is. Maybe Friday’s\u00a0numbers from the US will provide what we need! Here is our list with no live positions at present:<\/p>\n

USDSGD<\/strong><\/p>\n

This we would prefer as a pullback to 1.3730, but if it breaks the current level around 1.3825 and accepts we will look for longs.<\/p>\n

\"tip_usdsgd2016-10-12_2203\"<\/p>\n

NZDUSD<\/strong><\/p>\n

A short on a pullback to 0.7220. The counter-long to that level could be possible for the brave.<\/p>\n

\"tip_nzdusd2016-10-12_2208\"<\/p>\n

This on market profile, which we use in our analysis and is available on our pro site, the Fotis\u00a0Academy and also shows a more aggressive short as well as the bigger balance pullback we prefer:<\/p>\n

\"tip_mp_2016-10-12_2214\"<\/p>\n

USDCAD<\/strong><\/p>\n

This is high on the list. The set-up is one of the best. The CAD did not perform well when oil was rallying showing some inherent weakness. It also has not left the balance and is very close.<\/p>\n

\"usdcad_tip2016-10-12_2238\"<\/p>\n

AUDJPY<\/strong><\/p>\n

This is a sentiment trade which is at interesting levels but we need a fundamental environment to support it.<\/p>\n

\"audjpy_tip_2016-10-12_2216\"<\/p>\n

The equities are on watch as we see in the S&P500 above<\/p>\n

Gold, also discussed in the blog is a long term long position. We will watch the weekly low at 1241.44 but also the USD news and it’s recent strength has kept Gold subdued. There are other aspects that can lead to sentiment shifts such as weak equities, lack of growth globally even if the US is upbeat and a whole deal of political uncertainty. The bias and the underlying fundamentals have not changed. These are threads we will pick up in the weekend analysis.Let us see if we have a balance around this weekly level:<\/p>\n

\"gold_tip_2016-10-12_2219\"<\/p>\n

These are our trading ideas and not recommendations and are published to illustrate our process. We are happy to answer questions below and will be back Monday, hopefully with some entries!<\/p>\n

Judith Waker<\/p>\n

Robbie Stephenson
\nIf you would like to learn how to trade like a professional check out our 5* rated forex mentor program, RISK FREE; by clicking on the \u201cGet Started Today\u201d Button below<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It appears there is\u00a0more disagreement inside\u00a0the Fed than we may have imagined. It was called a ‘close call’ in the September meeting as the FOMC minutes released\u00a0today revealed,even though the rates were left unchanged. So does that mean there is a chance of a rate hike in November? It is still not likely with the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":35,"featured_media":647,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","rank_math_focus_keyword":"","rank_math_description":"","rank_math_title":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[54],"class_list":["post-743","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-forex-analysis","tag-forex-fundamental-analysis"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.forexmentorpro.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/743","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.forexmentorpro.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.forexmentorpro.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.forexmentorpro.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/35"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.forexmentorpro.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=743"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.forexmentorpro.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/743\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.forexmentorpro.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/647"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.forexmentorpro.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=743"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.forexmentorpro.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=743"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.forexmentorpro.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=743"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}