Hi everyone,
The U.S. data last week was a mix, $ weakens again. It was another good example of why we don’t trade NFP. The ADP used to be an important economic release years ago, it hasn’t been a reliable economic indicator in the past few years as it’s only an advance prediction of the actual NFP data which is released in the same week on Friday.
You could see the ADP figures came out at nearly 500k new jobs from which the $ strengthened, only for it to reverse the move the next day when the NFP figure was 209k and worse than the forecast. This resulted in the $ weakness and would have taken out retail traders who tried to long the Dollar. $ weakens again
I have added Marc Chandler’s article below, who talks about the YEN move this week into a little more detail. As ever we need a big pullback still to long the YEN pairs.
Yen Extends Recovery on Wage Data
Ashley will make a post tomorrow to show you his areas of interest on other pairs and shorter timeframes.
The Forex Week Ahead+++++++++++++++++++++++
For the week ahead, Tuesday the UK releases its unemployment figures. Wednesday is MASSIVE as you have the NZD rate statement, USD CPI, and the CAD rate statement all in one day. It’s probably best to trade those pairs after the news is out as you should know by now what happens if you trade around the news. Remember we are traders, not gamblers.
MAJORS
Keep watching the $index it is now at a major “make your mind up” area once again on the weekly charts. It is now stuck at the 55EMA and you have the 200 EMA just above it. If it could break above that we could be looking at $ strength.
Remember I am looking for “A” grade trades from weekly & daily charts that I can place the orders and then just walk away. A “B” grade is one that I will watch on 4 hour timeframes to see how it reacts if it hits my zone.
EUR/USD: I need a pullback to 1.0740 for a long. I would also watch 1.10500 to short if it shoots up for a short.
USD/CHF: Would keep an eye on DXY but clearly 0.90000 looks a good area to short Intraday
Do not take the Euro/$ & Chf at the same time. They are correlated so it’s the same “bet.”
GBP/USD: Im not sure with the Pound, so leaving it alone for now. Only interested to long at 1.2400. When in doubt stay out!
AUD/USD: Only interested to long around 0.7000.
NZDUSD: Not interested for now.
USD/CAD: The stop is an issue near the 1.33 area to short so leaving it alone for now . Equally, I will look to long anywhere near 1.30600.
USDYEN: Only interested to long at 136 for multiple reasons. Watch the video.
CROSSES
Some are A grades where I will place forward orders, most pairs have “areas of interest.” I have a lot of similar crosses so be very careful with the correlation.
EURGBP: Currently in it, have moved my stop and locked in 50 pips so far.
EURCAD: Needs a breakout above the EMAS at 1.45600 ideally on weekly or Daily. I would then be interested for a long.
EURAUD: Needs a big pullback to 1.58 area.
EURNZD: messy but an area to watch is 1.7320.
GBPNZD: I have forward orders at 1.96170 and 1.95100
GBPAUD: Correlated with GBPNZD, Looking to long around 1.82500. Also watch the 1.8500 area for intraday longs.
GBPCAD: 1.6540 is the sweet spot for me. 1.6800 can also be watched for intraday long/
AUDJPY: A grade long at 92.00, multiple reasons. If the EMAS moves up I will need to move the order higher. applies to other YEN pairs aswell.
AUDCAD: 0.90200 looks like an A grade short again for multiple reasons.
$ weakens again
As always, remember correlation!
M3 -Shorter timeframes.
I do my analysis on daily and weekly charts first and make a note of the MAJOR areas of support and resistance. Then copy them onto Pierre’s Earth and sky template. Then I make a note of the weekly & monthly pivots points and add them to the charts. You will see lots of opportunities line up during the week. The important thing then is to select a bias for the next few days and do NOT take trades if the price is too near a trend line or pivot. Ideally, you want to buy when the price is near a major support and or pivot point line and has the potential to make at least 40 pips. Vice versa for a short.
New members, please note: If I am looking to take a trade long, for example, 1.5000, I place my order 10 pips above & 10 pips below for a short. This is because price often does not quite reach a major line and you need to allow for spreads.
We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself.
Watch the video below for more detailed explanations of this week’s analysis and trade plan (click the 4 arrows bottom right to view full-screen):
Kind regards,
Marc
