Hi, this is a copy of my Sunday analysis that I share every week with members.
I said a few weeks ago that there were signs of some potential big moves, especially the Cad.
The Cad had a 1000 pip triangle break brewing.
It has done so now on a weekly and I am looking to trade it.
There were a lot of very good trades that setup on the 30 minute charts last week, see Thursdays video if you missed it. I will be watching these charts closely again this week. Now more than ever you need to be flexible. Do not be greedy. Do not enter more than one trade at a time. Pay close attention to correlation and the news:
This is the most difficult time to try to predict what is likely to happen next. We have been so accustomed to $USA strength, for so long BUT I showed in Thursday’s short video, how there were signs that we were going to see some movement as all the majors were in synch together on Tuesday in the London session. This is why you have to be so careful with correlation.
Recently, things have been out of wack! But suddenly it came back and if you look at the 4-hour results at the moment they surged. The daily are still out of synch so we need to keep our eyes on it this coming week, but if you longed the Aud, Nzd Euro & Gbp or shorted the Chf and the Cad last week, they were all virtually the same bet. If one loses they all do and your account will have suffered.
The live session reverts back to normal this week. Here is a link to register for this weeks live training session which takes place on Tuesday 2nd June at 11.00am London time (BST/GMT+1).
Then we can have a more detailed, up to the minute look at what’s happening and potential trades for the rest of the week.
The Forex Week Ahead
Its NFP Friday so no trading Friday under any circumstances!
Last Sunday I explained why Monday would be a slow day (it was) due to the USA and Uk bank holiday. This week its the turn of the EU main players and the Swiss on Monday. The best advice is to avoid all of those pairs until Tuesday. Usually, price goes nowhere in a bank Holiday. Very occasionally it goes crazy. Either way it’s harder than usual to make a plan so walk away.
The Euro/$ broke out of its triangle on a weekly but then stopped at the major area of 1.1100. It surged like the other majors on Tuesday, but then kept going. Probably because of the announcement by the EU re loans and grants up to €750 billion to southern states. However, this is very premature as all states have to agree and many on the right politically do not want to accede to the demands. So watch this space!
I am less sure and in general, and particularly wary about longing the Euro. The hardest thing to try gauge when trading? Is this a reversal or fake out?
Similarly, the Chf has broken down, but tantalisingly it closed above 0.9600. I will leave both alone until Tuesday at the earliest- see the video
I heard an expression years ago that price “usually changes direction very slowly, like an aircraft carrier”-
so don’t be in a rush to change your bias just because of a few days action.
As ever, be patient and disciplined.
The Aud is best traded on the 30 minute this week as there is big news almost every day.
I have been shorting this pair consistently for the last few years and am still wary about changing my bias BUT the Aussies suffered less than most major economies from the Covid crisis and are almost out of it now, with very few deaths. Also, Governor Lowe of the central bank, was a bit more upbeat than expected last week and Tuesday’s red flag release is interest rate news and the statement. He has already said that rate rises nor cuts are likely for an extended period, but if the statement is more positive the Aussie just might change direction.
Conversely, if they are more negative this could be the turning place to continue dropping. Best advice is to wait and see.
If it does break and close above 0.6700 on a daily candle close THEN I will start to consider a long if it pulls back, standard M2 trade.
Euro/Gbp: Same as last week, again not on Monday: It shot up again to 0.9000 last week which is HUGE previous resistance. I will be interested to short it there on a 30 minute & once more or long from 0.8750/0.8800. If it breaks and closes above 0.9000 I will wait for it to do so on a weekly chart before longing there. See the video and look at a weekly chart to see how many times it faked out here in the past.
Gbp/$: It pulled back to the daily trend line again last week and bounced off the daily 555ema. Its an area to watch, but not an A grade for me. I would be happier with a forward order at 1.2650 for multiple reasons.
Euro/$: Neutral: expert talk meaning no idea!
$/Yen: Same as last few weeks. its Messy, 107.00 is key on this pair. Then short at 109.00. The concern if it breaks below 107.00 for a short is that it will probably struggle at 106.00 once more, so might be a limited move.
Cad: Broke the 1000 pip weekly triangle and daily range. I will watch 1.3850 on the 30 minute for a potential short. I am more confident placing a forward order just below the major area of 1.4000.- see the video. If it crashes I will long at 1.3010.
Nzd: Swing traders will look to short at 0.6490. I prefer a pullback to long at 0.6000. Intraday watch 0.6100 to long.
Shorter timeframes
See recent blog posts as to how i do this: I do my analysis on daily and weekly charts first and make a note of the MAJOR areas of support and resistance. Then copy them on to Pierre’s Earth and sky template. Then I make a note of the weekly & monthly pivots points and add them to the charts. You will see lots of opportunities line up during the week. The important thing then is to select a bias for the next few days and do NOT take trades if price is too near a trend line or pivot. Ideally, you want to buy when price is near a major support and or pivot point line and has the potential to make at least 40 pips. Vice versa for a short.
New members, please note: If I am looking to take a trade long, for example, 1.5000, I place my order 10 pips above & 10 pips below for a short. This is because price often does not quite reach a major line and you need to allow for spreads.
We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself.
For more up to the minute, updates do not forget to drop by the forum.
Watch the video for more detailed explanations of this week’s detailed analysis and trade plan.
Click on the square button bottom right to watch in full-screen mode
Break Outs Or Fake Outs?
