Hi, this is a copy of my forex trading plan and analysis that I share every week (for the last 10 years) with members of my forex mentor group.
Last weeks analysis gave members the opportunity to make over a 1000 pips from pre-planned forex trades!
Last week my Flag Pattern, Gbp/$ trade worked with a take profit almost to the pip!
This was from detailed analysis I shared with you in November and covered in more detail in recent updates and live training sessions.
I showed how technically the move was suggesting a big break and I explained why technically and fundamentally I believed the move would stop at 1.3500, which it did!
I have created a short blog post and video reviewing the trade so you know what to look for next time you see a similar setup.
You can find it here: https://www.forexmentorpro.com/blog/900-pip-flag-pattern-success/
Last week I explained why I would short the Euro/Gbp if it pulled back to 0.8500, it did and then dropped 250 pips.
I showed in recent live sessions how to scale into the Euro/Aud and half of that trade got “hooked” for 130 pips.
The Aud/Nzd I was looking for a pullback to short at 1.0500, it almost did (missed my entry by a handful of pips) and dropped 90 pips.
Unfortunately my hope that the Yens would drop, did not work (can’t win them all) and they shot up even further in Chinese news. This is why I cautioned about only taking one Yen trade at a time. If one loses they usually all do.
Please register for this week’s Forex Mentor Pro Live Training on
Tuesday’ 17th December at 11:00 AM GMT (London Time)
Click on the following link to register now:
If you have a topic you would like us to discuss, please let me know in the comments below or via the helpdesk.
We show in real-time what we are looking to trade and are happy to analyse any setups you may have found.
A live training session with Pierre du Plessis & myself this week. We will assess fundamentals, M2 Earth & Sky & fundamentals for potential trades. Followed by a Q & A session.
After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar.
If you miss it, you will find a recording here on the blog, later the same day.
The Forex Week Ahead
Its the final trading week of the year for the professionals.
It IS still possible to trade over the holiday period, but things can be less predictable.
So this week is the one to try and grab some more $$$’s before the big break.
On Friday the UK election result gave the ruling Conservative government a 70 seat majority so that they will now push ahead with Brexit.
As you saw there was a 500 pip surge as the week progressed, but it then stopped at my target (for multiple reasons) of 1.3500 and already it has pulled back 150 pips. This will be a combination of profit-taking And the immediate hangover of NOW WHAT!
Yes, the uncertainty over leave or stay has gone, markets prefer clarity, Brexit will now go ahead without all the nonsense in Parliament and Johnson has got rid of most of the staunch “remainers” in his own party, BUT there are potentially years of complex negotiations to come and an interim period of 2 or 3 years whilst the “divorce” goes through. On the positive side, it should make trading the Gbp a lot more predictable in 2020!
China: Finally, after many months of Trump claiming a deal was almost done, the first step has been taken and put in writing. You can see the outline document here: https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/US-China-Agreement-Fact-Sheet.pdf
A lot of it, makes sense, particularly trying to stop the Chinese stealing western technology, which has been going on for far too long. I was surprised that the Nzd & Aud didn’t react more positively. In general everything seemed to strengthen the $USA; but all economists and central bankers have expressed concerns about the economic downturn that has affected all major economies.
Let’s see what happens on Monday, now traders have had the weekend to analyse the implications more.
There is a lot of UK data this week. For the last few years, despite all the doom and gloom merchants predictions, the UK economy had held up rather well. However, in recent months there has been worsening results. If that continues this week we may well see the GBP resume its downward trend.
There is also a lot of Euro, Australian and New Zealand news. Make a plan for where you want to enter AFTER the releases as I have shown you repeatedly in recent blog posts and live sessions.
Euro/Aud: In a recent live training session I showed how to scale into this and I left it to run last week, The first half “hooked” & I am looking at the same areas again this week. Its been the same for the last 6 weeks, and has been the easiest trade. The news will make it more difficult. I pick the big areas where the price is most likely to react after the news, depending on the outcome. If for example, the news is much better than expected for Australia and price on the Euro Aud drops dramatically, where is it most probably going to stop? Where price is before the announcement is also important.
1.6100 is again the first place to consider a long. If it drops straight through after the news, then the next most likely bounce will be at 1.6000.
Conversely, if the news is a lot worse for the Aud and it shoots past 1.6200, where is it likely to run out of steam? 1.6300 is a weekly trend line and recent major support and resistance and a whole number. In other words, multiple reasons!
GBP/$: It shot up to 1.3500 and predictably rejected. I expect the Gbp to be a lot more data-driven going forwards, without too many wild swings (due to uncertainty). We need to closely watch the red flag announcements this week for clues. My bias is for it to stay between 1.3000 & 1.3500 until or unless a major news shock is announced. If there is negative news this week then I will be looking to long at 1.3000 for multiple reasons. If it shoots up then I would be very surprised if it does not run out of steam again at 1.3500, so those are the areas to look for entries. If news is particularly bad and it drops through 1.3000 then 1.2900 is the next area.
If it breaks and closes above 1.3500 on a daily then I will consider a long on a pullback BUT I don’t believe that fundamentals support the idea unless news is very positive. As ever make a plan for every “what if” scenario.
Euro/$: The short worked last week: ” If it moves higher I still only will short and 1.1170/1.1200 is an A grade for me”- that worked for 60+ pips. There is quite a bit of Euro news on Monday so best to wait for that lot to come out THEN 1.1000, 1.1100 are the areas to consider longs and 1.1200 for a short again
Chf: I usually use it for confirmation with Euro/$ trades, but this has been fairly predictable of late bouncing off the whole numbers. Down at 9900 and up at 0.9800 so they are the areas to consider trades or help with the Euro (if you are new these pairs are correlated – if the Euro is going up the Chf is going down most of the time and vice versa, explained here: Forex Correlation
Euro/Gbp: Worked last week for 250 pips: I said “If it pulls back to 0.8500 I will short”….. it dropped 250 pips! It tends to stop at whole numbers. I need a pullback. The A grade is 0.8500 though that seems unlikely at the moment. The next area of support and resistance from last week is 0.8400
Aud: I said last week ” My bias is still short, 0.6900 is the next line in the sand higher up OR a break and close below 0.6800 I will short. Same again for me. If it shoots up on news I will definitely short at 0.7000 for multiple reasons.
Nzd: My bias is still to short although it did try to break the weekly trend line last week. If it moves higher, then this pair tends to stop at whole number so 0.6700 and 0.6800 I will look for price to slow down. If it keeps going I will place a forward order to short at 0.6900
If it falls from the current position I need it to break and close on a daily below 0.6500 then do an M2 pullback to short.
If it drops like a stone after news then 0.6200 is where it will “probably stop” ergo a counter-trend long.
$/Yen: Failed to break the weekly trend lines and support I mentioned last week. Rallied higher on the Chinese news on Friday. This is still bouncing between 108.40 and 109.30 so those are the areas if you want to range trade. I will wait until London opens and even New York. We need to see if the Yens are going to break higher because of the Chinese agreement.
To long it (and change my bias on all the Yens) I need it to break and close above 110.00 on a daily candle close. Until then my bias is to short.
Cad/Yen: I have been saying for weeks that 83.00 is HUGE on this pair….” and it still is. I am “neutral” on this pair right now- “expert speak” for I don’t know! The China news and how it is interpreted is key.
83.00 is the place to focus. If it breaks higher then the more conservative option is to look for a short at 85.00 for multiple reasons. If it drops then I need a break and close below the trend line and recent support at 81.30
Aud/Nzd: Same as last week although the average range is small on this pair. I only want to short and 1.0500 is the first place but the stop concerns me. 1.0600 is a better option but seems unlikely now. If it keeps dropping then Pierre will be looking for a counter-trend long at 1.02700.
Aud/Cad: Still interested to short at 0.9100 its a big area again.
Aud/yen: Failed last week “75.00 is an A grade short for me” it then stopped at 76.00 (those whole numbers again)! I am interested to short there. To long it I need it to break and close above 76.00 then M2 pullback.
If it just drops then the trend line has a daily 55ema & whole number just below it so I need both to break. SO a break below 73.75 I will look for an M2 short.
Euro/Yen: If this breaks and closes above 122.00 my bias will change to long. All the Yen shorts did not work last week mainly because of the China deal. This is why I repeatedly tell you Do not be in more than one Yen trade at a time. If you are, reduce the risk per trade. ie if you take 2 trades then half your usual stake on each. If one loses, then all will probably do so.
New members, please note: If I am looking to take a trade long, for example, 1.5000, I place my order 10 pips above & 10 pips below for a short. This is because price often does not quite reach a major line and you need to allow for spreads.
We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself.
For more up to the minute, updates do not forget to drop by the forum in Pierre’s corner.
Watch the video for more detailed explanations of this week’s detailed analysis and trade plan.
Click on the square button bottom right to watch in full-screen mode
