Hi, I had a very good week just ended, all from potential trade setups I shared with you in last week’s analysis. For those of you who did well, now it’s important that you start the new week fresh. Overconfidence kills as many traders as a lack of knowledge in my experience!
The first time I hit my weekly target of $2000 back in 2004 I was on a high all weekend. I had finally cracked forex and I was its master. By Wednesday of the following week, I had given most of it back 🙁
It is important to start each week with a clean slate, whether you had a good or bad one just ended. Stick to your rules. Plan the trades, then follow the plan.
You can view my plan from last week and all my previous posts by joining FMP as these are only for members, including last week’s investing live training session where I looked at gold, metals, crypto as well as forex.
Another important thing to note is to not be greedy & calculate your take profits in advance. In last week’s CAD trade I said I would get out (most of it) at the recent low, The NZD at the highs, both of which turned out to be good decisions. I also showed you how to reduce the number of potential losing trades. For example, “0.7500 is a huge area on the AUD where the central bank have previously said they are happy for the currency to be”. For the last 2 weeks it’s stopped to the pip in that place.
I also explained why the fundamentals did not support the Euro breaking higher versus the GBP and technically it was in agreement, that one worked too.
One of the members asked about my thinking about this in the forum. He was concerned there was a 200ema just under it so it kept him out.
I had planned the trade as a weekly and had waited a month for it so I took it anyway. As it turned out he was right, so far, I have taken 80% off and left the balance to run. All explained in todays video.
Where did it stop? You guessed it….
Trading is all about support and resistance in all its forms for me. Add to that some fundamental knowledge and you give yourself an “edge.” I explained last week that the Yens were way overbought and no way would I buy so high. Add to that the Japanese started to intervene to strengthen the Yen, what did it do? This is not rocket science 🙂
This week I still have some decent setups, see my analysis below.
Forex news this week:
The week starts quietly again with a smattering of speeches. Tuesday is AUD cash rate & statement. The RBA has already said they are unlikely to raise rates for at least 12 months so it’s extremely unlikely that will change. The analysts will be focusing more on the statement. Wednesday there is some red flag US news, FMP meeting minutes. The decision is already known, and its future guidance clues experts will be looking at. Having said that FOMC members have been talking about wanting more hikes sooner for the last week or more.
Friday is a big one for Canada with their employment rate figure release. I do not recommend trading Fridays anyway so it will not affect most of us.
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EUR/USD: My bias is to short. On a weekly its just not possible if you insist on trading it then look at shorter timeframes. Not for me.
USD/CHF: Worked last week. I will watch at the open for a possible long. I will not short in its current position, but will consider a long if it drops to the trendline too. The safer option for me is to short around 0.9360 to 0.9390.
GBP/USD: Messy like the Euro/$, better opportunities elsewhere but the area to consider a short on the 4H is 1.33000. On the daily I’m looking at 1.3500
AUD/USD: I want to long this at 73.430. Don’t be greedy with this one, as I explained in last weeks video “for a target…..it will probably struggle at 0.75.00″- it stopped at 0.7495!
NZD/USD: Worked again last week for 100 pips. I am looking to long same area again, namely 0.6900. I am going to watch it at the open. Same target: I said last week”it will probably struggle at 0.700 so I will take 80% of the trade off at 0.6990 (if we catch it of course)” which I did (See video for details).
USD/JPY: All the Yens are sat on big emas. The Japanese are intervening in the markets, I am leaving them alone. If there is a big drop then 116.30 area is where I will be interested. Seems unlikely at the moment but never bet against a central bank.. I am not looking to swing trade at the tops either
USD/CAD: Worked for 100 pips for the second week in a row. I showed in last weeks video how price was at a MAJOR weekly trendline. I explained that if it broke and closed below on a daily candle I would look to short on a pullback to the line. I will short again if it pullsback to 1.2580
EUR/GBP: Worked last week but only for 50 pips. I closed 80% and left the balance to run. If it moves back up then same as last week: “A” grade short for me at 0.84700. I might split the entry this time. Half at 0.8470 and the other at 0.8505
Aud/Cad, Same as last week: best of the bunch for cross pairs. I will long at 0.9270
Gbp/Nzd is sat on a 5 year old trendline. Swing traders will consider a long there. Not for me, but it’s not a bad setup. I prefer to short. I need a break and close of at least a daily candle, very similar setup to last weeks Cad- explained in the video
Other cross pairs: I have analysed a lot more pairs in today’s video. A few of these are worth watching, but I also show ones I will not touch. This should be useful for new folks to understand what I consider and those I reject.
As always, remember correlation!
We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself.
Watch the video below for more detailed explanations of this week’s analysis and trade plan: