Hi guys,
I hope all of you managed to survive the past week?

As we all know by now the Russian invasion into Ukraine has created an extremely volatile environment to try and trade in. Even the best laid plans, areas, zones etc could mean very little when the real world political situation and real world sentiment is changing by the hour.

The fact is nobody knows what will happen next and for that matter for how long. We trade probably and everything we teach at FMP is geared towards adding probability in your favour. Trading during these times DOES NOT add probability in your favour and starts bordering on guessing. Also remember that the high inflation environment and everything that could, and will, entail has not gone away and the war has more than likely just put another spanner in the works.

Volatility in action: 

Some strategies I recommend you follow during these times;

  • Keep practicing on a demo account and make a note in your journal that these are/were extraordinary times…(you all are journaling your trades right?)
  • Use the situation as a real world case study on fundamentals. Have a look at what’s going up, what’s going down and try and to figure out why? What do you think will be next? Does it have a knock-on effect on anything else?
  • If you are going to trade, seriously consider halving your risk (at least). I always tell my students, protect your trading capital account at all costs…live to fight another day.
  • This may seem counterintuitive but be extra careful with the safe havens (USD, CHF, JPY + Gold). They could change dramatically (and very quickly) as the real world sentiment & situation changes.

Good luck for the trading week!

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MAJORS

EUR/USD:  Short for me is from the 1.15500 to 1.15400 area.

USD/CHF: Long from 0.9200. 0.9400 is a big area. 

GBP/USD: Messy. I need a clear break below 1.3400 to start looking for pullbacks.

AUD/USD: Area to short from is  0.7300.

NZD/USD: Similar scenario to the AUD pair, looking to short from 0.68500.

USD/JPY:  Opportunity for those that trade shorter timeframes. Areas for smaller timeframes, 109.500, 112.500, 114.500.

USD/CAD:  Looking to long from 1.26700 to 1.28500 area. 1.28500 area is massive for this pair.

CROSSES

EUR/GBP:   I would like to short from 0.85500

GBP/CAD:  1.71500 is where I’d like to short from.

EUR/CAD:  No M2 setups for me at the moment. 1.45800 is an area to look at for smaller timeframes.

GBP/NZD: I’d look to have a split entry. Entry 1 from 1.97300 and Entry 2 from around 1.96200

EUR/AUD: M2 short from 1.58000. For smaller timeframes look at 1.56400

AUD/CAD: M2 short from around 0.93200. For smaller timeframes look at 0.92200

As always, remember correlation!

We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself.

Watch the video below for more detailed explanations of this week’s analysis and trade plan: