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You will find written notes below the video
In this live session Marc explains his trade grading theory. He is a ‘laid back’ trader and does not spend all day at the computer. The analysis is done at the weekend and the plans made. Entry exit and target all require multiple reasons, and if they exist the trade gets an ‘A’ and is eligible for a forward order, because it has conviction.
Waited for this a long time, the channel is 1200/1300 pips wide, so the risk /reward is excellent. This was the trade of the year last year. Marc uses weekly charts, so weeks can come and go without a trade. When the setup occurs the reward is big so worth the wait. These are repeating patterns, in this case, channels, and can be seen on other charts.
Marc uses the risk management tool which is available for download and lots of emas and indicators as he shows in the attached video. In this pair, the stop was placed above the recent high and there is also a fib. The potential reward is excellent.
A similar channel, and another big return opportunity. it is not about how many wins you have , it is how much you win. This has broken a down-trend and is moving up. If your style is pull-back, you miss some of the entries and that is annoying but remember, usually they are big wins if you do catch them. The pullback level is 1.3850, but the problem is where to put the stop, so this is not a grade A trade.
Looking at the trend line, it is at support with fibs and confluence. On a weekly chart, it is another 400 pip channel.
A triangle, a 160 pip triangle, and the theory is that it will take you the same distance after the break. There was a breakout and a pull-back and continuation and continuation. It’s a good trade. The fundamentals support the long rather than the short.
This broke out but not a big enough pullback so left this one, Marc will wait to see if it reached the right level, and it could be a 800 pip move.
This has broken out. It can be choppy and spiky. It needs a pullback and the stop is also tricky. Risk/reward is huge!
This pair is stuck in a range, trade the range or watch for the break of the low are high, just have a plan. It’s the middle of nowhere.
Wait for breakout of the range. This is all to do with sentiment.
No mans land, for now and not much room underneath before the road blocks.
Again going nowhere, you can consider a long at trend line but it does not have a great risk/reward.
Since Jan last year, this has been unreliable with the unexpected drastic move. not good, but does bounce well off the bottom.
Everything is about risk and what the reward is. And you need good odds.
Wait for candles to close if you are using the H4 timeframe for entries. If you use the risk reward tool, it will give layers of reward and set your weekly loss limit, and your overall exposure. 3% is appropriate per week as a loss limit and 5% drawdown is the limit for most pro’s for the month.
Answering the question whether to short the EURJPY, on Earth and Sky, the price broke the 200EMA to the upside, and there is a WPV. On a H1 there is a trend line so it needs to break first. Forward orders are tricky, because we often need confirmation. Pierre shos how he uses the spaghetti indicator, giving it great attention currently. He saw that the CAD was oversold, Uand the USD overbought, so :
Candle formation was bearish at the high which was a at psychological level and it dropped from there, he used the spaghetti indicator also to look for short AUD opportunities ; there were quite a few!
This took off downwards on a H4 chart…the high was a resistance area, WR1 , and there were multiple reasons to short.
All look the same
AUDJPY, no pivots so left this pair alone. Watch the candle formations…also bearish!
EURAUD, another rejection at support
So keep an eye on the spaghetti because it shows you where to focus. And it shows when things are going nowhere!!
Spiked on the H4 chart, it was going sideways but the MACD was down. Pirre took a 61 pip profit on the short.
I shared my set-up and how I use the fundamentals. There are 4 windows always open, Bloomberg, Forex calendar, zerohedge talking forex and stockcharts and they are all free!
On the technical side, I use pivots and EMAs and market profile (available on the pro site). This is combined with Robbie’s technical system which uses traditional indicators and when we see the same opportunities it is a green light!
This week Draghi and Carney have both defended QE against their political aggressors (!). The dovishness looks likely to continue making the USD stronger in comparative terms. This does fluctuate so we have to watch for statements and changes in tone. In the USD, look out for the weekly overhead resistance in the index. If the USD is to strengthen ahead of the December meeting it has to get through this weekly layer. We have an open trade
NZDUSD, short with our trade at break-even and will look to take profit at the 200 EMA, a 1:2 so acceptable! A note on oil: OPEC pre-discussions this week can make waves. The bias is that the agreement will break down but please remember anyway that membership of OPEC is voluntary and there is no enforcement mechanism even if they can all agree on some kind of freeze.
When the price gets above 50USD per barrel the production kicks in and that adds to supply and keeps the price down. The bias is for oil to either stay around 50 or move to the downside if production rises and OPEC fails. The meeting is next month.
This is on our list but it will need a healthy stop loss because of the potential volatility. The risk reward, however, is excellent. Details of trades Robbie and I are watching are in the blog, Theory Into Practice.
Marc covered some questions including the USDJPY and why this may go further. The whole session is recorded in the video
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