In today’s live webinar I looked at the M2 setups and also Earth and Sky.
Ashley only got back from his weekend away yesterday and was still catching up with his emails and charts. He should be back to full speed tomorrow and be active in the forum.
USDCHF in focus
This week, member James asked an interesting question in the forum as shown below. I did my best to explain this in the webinar. I explained how we can chart the highs and lows using technical analysis, but at the same time, it is hard to predict where it could exactly do that in the future. In Summary, the USDCHF on the longer timeframes is technically still in an uptrend. This is because it has still not taken the last low it made at 0.92000. Until it breaks that I would say we are still long on USDCHF in terms of long-term bias.
Another example would be when the market opened yesterday it took out the last highs it made on the 4-hour timeframe on EURUSD. Take a look at the screenshot below. A less experienced retail trader would think, “ohh its broken the last high so it should go up now”, then they would also change the fibs around and look for longs. But the reality is if you go on the Daily timeframe EURUSD is still in a downtrend, it has been bouncing off the trendline repeatedly for several months. It did exactly that today and bounced off it so a short would have worked. To go for longs technically it needs to break its last high at 1.03610. That would count as a break of structure.
I also then went on to explain why it is probably a good and safe idea to wait until the CPI news is out for the $. As Im writing this article it did bounce off 0.95 where all the EMAS are and would have been a very good trade if anyone took it.
I saw Ashley managed to get a very good entry on this and made 130 pips out of it. He has posted it in the forum.
I also spoke about being cautious about the Red flag news as there is plenty of it for different currencies this week. Also make sure to pay attention to the yellow flag news. For some reason the UK unemployment news was shown as yellow when it should be Red. It was out this morning.
Tomorrow we have the GBP CPI, House price index(HPI) which is shown as yellow flag. So keep an eye on it. Then US PPI and in the night for some the NZD GDP. SO have a plan to tip toe around the news.
You can watch the full webinar below: