Stocks, crypto & a lot of forex pairs are all at major areas right now. The S&P for example is back at the support and resistance level I have had on my charts for months and shared with you in previous live training sessions.
Bitcoin and Ethereum for example could “pop” upwards by $10’s of 1000s in the next few days BUT they could just as easily drop.
A lot of forex pairs are at major levels and trendlines. Last week I explained the Cad was at such a point and how to play it. If you took the trade it was only a 100 pips win so far, but a good 1:3 risk reward. There is a similar scenario right now on the Gbp/Nzd which I show towards the end of the video.
I recorded the video on Saturday morning. If anything major happens in the Ukraine before the markets open I may need to revise my plans. If so I will let you know in the forum.
Looking at the Vix/fear indicator, it appears all around the world is calming down and life is good! Stock markets appear to be “pricing in” the war. To my mind this is insane. You have a major war taking place on Europe border. Russia is ruled by a lunatic who has both chemical and nuclear weapons. In other words things could go very bad, very quickly.
The flip side of course is if a ceasefire is announced, then markets will shoot up and gold would be expected to drop. Having said that the “devil will be in the detail”- in other words, if it’s just temporary, then the markets can be expected to just as quickly turn the other way.
The bottom line is that traders need to pay close attention, before placing trades, not only to scheduled news, but the war in Ukraine.
Similar to last week
Forex news this week:
The week starts quietly with a smattering of speeches. Tuesday and Wednesday there is some red flag US news, the ADP slightly more important. Thursday is a big one for Canada with their GDP figure release. The week culminated with NFP on Friday which we NEVER trade as its forex at its silliest.
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EUR/USD: My bias is to short. On a weekly its just not possible but I show in the video how 1.1300 is an area to consider on shorter timeframes.
USD/CHF: Would look to long from 0.9220 & look for possible shorts around 0.9360 to 0.9400 on smaller timeframes- see the video
GBP/USD: Area to consider a short on the 4H is 1.33000. On the daily I’m looking at 1.3500
AUD/USD: I want to long this at 73.30. Don’t be greedy with this one, as I explained in last weeks video “for a target…..it will probably struggle at 0.75.00”- it stopped at 0.7506!
NZD/USD: Worked last week for a 100 pips. I am looking to long same area again, namely 0.6910 BUT it will probably struggle at 0.700 so I will take 80% of the trade off at 0.6990 (if we catch it of course)! (See video for details).
USD/JPY: All the Yens have ‘gone’. I need a big pullback to around the 115.60 area. I am not looking to swing trade at the tops either
USD/CAD: Worked for 100 pips. I showed in last weeks video how price was at a MAJOR weekly trendline. I explained that if it broke and closed below on a daily candle I would look to short on a pullback to the line. I will short again if it pullback to 1.2580
EUR/GBP: “A” grade short for me at 0.84700
Aud/Cad, best of the bunch for cross pairs. I will long at 0.9270
Gbp/Nzd is sat on a 5 year old trendline. Swing traders will consider a long there. Not for me, but its not a bad setup. I prefer to short. I need a break and close of at least a daily candle, very similar setup to last weeks Cad- explained in the video
Other cross pairs: I have analysed a lot more pairs in today’s video. A few of these are worth watching, but I also show ones I will not touch. This should be useful for new folks to understand what I consider and those I reject.
As always, remember correlation!
We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself.
Watch the video below for more detailed explanations of this week’s analysis and trade plan:
The first 4 minutes are an introduction, looking at news and fundamentals. AT 4:30 minutes I look at the VIX; S&P, gold, silver and Bitcoin & Ethereum (the latter 2 are at a very important “make your mind up zone”
at 12:30 I analyse over a dozen forex pairs:
Have a great week, I look forward to seeing you in this weeks live session on Tuesday,