Hi, there is a lot of red flag scheduled news this week, especially for the Gbp. The first is on Tuesday morning, so the best advice is to leave it alone until after that and the US retail sales data at the New York open.
Thursday is the big UK event of the month, interest rates & monetary policy statement, so it doesn’t leave much of a window to trade it, unless you are day trading using the M3 method.
I explain in the video how to tiptoe around all the news, but there are better opportunities elsewhere. Your call if you decide to trade it!
Thursday is also the CHF big news so trading the Chf, €uro or Gbp on Thursday morning is NOT a good idea.
The live training session Here is a link to register for this weeks live training session which takes place on Tuesday, 15th June 2020 at 11.00am London time (BST/GMT+1).
Then we can have a more detailed, up to the minute look at what’s happening and potential trades for the rest of the week.
https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_GMwGpR9hTyaLfyVKvlgYbA
If you are new, I use a “top-down” approach. I focus on trading from longer timeframes with my M2 method. I am looking for potential trade setups on weekly charts, areas that scream at me 🙂
I then go to daily charts looking for multiple reasons why I believe price will react in an area.
I then look at the fundamentals and what is my bias for the week, ie $USA strength or weakness. Finally, I check which news releases are scheduled. This week, as I explained earlier, the GBP has too much of it, so I will focus elsewhere.
Wherever possible I place orders at the market open and walk away or daily candle closes.
However, if you like to day trade, we have the brand new M3 system here.
You still need to fully understand my M2 & Pierre’s Earth & Sky system before using this strategy.
Pivot points: Generally I only use the main ones, Monthly & weekly when trading the M3. However, if I see a decent setup on a pair and I am struggling for multiple reasons to place the stop I will check out where the pivots are. I don’t use all the time on the M2 because if you have emas, fibs, trendlines AND pivots, there is always something in the way and you end up with “paralysis by analysis” ie overkill!
Forex Trade Plan for the Week Ahead
This is a copy of the detailed analysis I provide for members every weekend, looking for trades for the week ahead, suing for forex traing strategies.
We have 3 systems.
M2: we plan and trade from weekly and daily charts with forward orders.
Earth & Sky: Analysis on daily charts but trade from 4 hour candles
M3 Day trading 30 minute charts, using a combination of the main systems
Keep your eye on the calendar and of course, there is always the chance of surprise news.
€uro/$: A lot of pairs have reacted repeatedly at whole numbers in recent months, the €uro being one of them. 1.1000 is the A grade trade for me, but 1,1100 is also a strong contender to long. Watch the Chf for confirmation. If it moves higher I will look to short at 1.1450. Intraday M3 traders watch 1.1400.
Chf: It has broken the 0.9600 area on a weekly after previous attempts failed so now I am looking to short it. If it gets back up to 0.9800 (which it might do if Thursday’s news is bad from the Swiss National Bank) I will short it
Prior to that if it pulls back to 0.9600/9640 I want to short it OR use its correlation to long the Euro.
Euro/Gbp: Same as last week, It bounced back down off 0.9000 which is HUGE previous resistance. I will be interested to short it there on a 30 minute & once more or long from 0.8750 a forward order. Intraday 0.8850 is the area to watch. If it breaks and closes above 0.9000 I will wait for it to do so on a weekly chart before longing there. See the video and look at a weekly chart to see how many times it faked out here in the past.
Gbp/$: Technically it’s not clear, add in all the news and there are better opportunities elsewhere. Areas to watch for possible M3 entries: keep your eye on the whole numbers.
€uro/Aud: Australian member Mark asked me to look at this in last Tuesday’s live session. I don’t usually trade it as the spreads can be too big at the daily candle closes BUT Mark is correct, 1.6600 is a big area to short with the added benefit of the 200ema just above for the stop and it has over 200 pips daily range. Last week it bounced to the pip off a weekly trend line after the drop. The trend line is at 1.6060 so watch there for a possible long and definitely at 1.5960/1.6000.
$/Yen: Still too messy for me. Too many EMA’s above. Leaving alone.
Cad: I have two main areas for the Cad this week, long and short. The way I will play this is to split the orders in half and scale in. I will cover this again in detail in Tuesday’s live session. The principle is if you risk eg $100 on a trade usually, this time you place 2 x $50 trades.
The Cad to short I will do so at 1.3800 & 1.3850 & longs at 1.3070 & 1.3000. Remember any levels I post here I place long orders 10 pips above and shorts 10 below.
Nzd: Same as last week when I said “As expected it rejected once more at 0.6500 as per last weeks analysis. However, it spiked through so look there for M3 shorts.” I show in the video how it was a good M3 trade. There is nowhere to place a stop for me, so no forward order.
If it breaks and closes above 0.6500 on a daily candle close we start to look for a long with a target of 0.6700. Other than that keep your eye on emas on the daily/weekly charts for possible bounces if it drops.
Aud: Same as last week when I said “Broke higher, stopped at the HUGE area of previous support and resistance of 0.7000.” again it was an M3 due to a lack of a strong area to hide the stop. If it pulls back its another one I will look to split the entry/scale in 0.6650 & 0.6700.
As with the NZD. I would need a break and close above 0.7000 on a daily to think about a long on a move higher.
Yens: I show 3 of them in the video. In truth I am finding it difficult to read them at the moment so not as confident, but check out the levels in the video.
M3 Shorter timeframes
See the new course & recent blog posts as to how I do this: I do my analysis on daily and weekly charts first and make a note of the MAJOR areas of support and resistance. Then copy them on to Pierre’s Earth and sky template. Then I make a note of the weekly & monthly pivots points and add them to the charts. You will see lots of opportunities line up during the week. The important thing then is to select a bias for the next few days and do NOT take trades if price is too near a trend line or pivot. Ideally, you want to buy when price is near a major support and or pivot point line and has the potential to make at least 40 pips. Vice versa for a short.
New members, please note: If I am looking to take a trade long, for example, 1.5000, I place my order 10 pips above & 10 pips below for a short. This is because price often does not quite reach a major line and you need to allow for spreads.
We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself.
For more up to the minute, updates do not forget to drop by the forum.
Watch the video for more detailed explanations of this week’s detailed analysis and trade plan.
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