Just when we thought the worst is over from a world health perspective it now seems that cases of monkeypox have been recorded in the US, England, Italy, Sweden, Australia and Canada – signaling a potential global outbreak. Although not usually that serious (it of course can be), monkeypox is a viral infection which is usually mild and from which most people recover in a few weeks. The virus also doesn’t spread easily between people -I believe the fear stems from people around the world’s immune systems still being compromised. Let’s hope that the world is more prepared now for this type of event. It’s early days, but expect market turmoil if this gets out of hand. You need to Navigate the macro for some big setups.
With the world wide battle against inflation still raging, we might now see the focus turn to the Euro zone. This week European central bank president, Christine Lagarde said the first increase in interest rates in more than a decade may come in July. With inflation almost four times the 2% target and the US Federal Reserve already delivering a bigger than expected hike in April, critics have accused the ECB of moving too slowly.
Down 20% from its latest peak in January, the S&P 500 is still putting pressure on risk assets everywhere. This week Walmart and Target (the USA’s biggest retailers) also sent warning signs during earnings reports, about the state of the economy. Put very simply, if people need to spend more for the essentials they have less disposable income to spend on other, non-essential goods.
Bitcoin: 23 May finding support at 30k
Australians also go to the polls today (21 May) and as ever a result not favoured by the financial markets could see some volatility this week for the AUD.
The Forex News Week Ahead
A pretty quiet week with regards to the news, but keep an eye out for German inflation figures on Tuesday and US GDP numbers on Thursday.
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Navigate the macro for some big setups
MAJORS
EUR/USD: Only looking for shorts. 1.12000 is the area I’m looking at. On the 4H you could look at 1.07400
USD/CHF: I’m still looking to long from the 0.94500 area.
GBP/USD: Looking at the weekly chart, I like the 1.3200 area for a short.
AUD/USD: Only looking to short at the moment. On the weekly, I’m looking at the 0.72800 area.
NZD/USD: Again on the weekly. Looking at 0.68200 for a short.
USD/JPY: Nowhere near anything at the moment. I’d start looking to long at 118.000
USD/CAD: I still like the look of this setup from where it currently is (to long) If you want to play it a little safer, wait for a daily candle close above the 200 ema.
Navigate the macro for some big setups
CROSSES
EUR/GBP: I’m still looking to trade the range between 0.8500 and 0.8600
GBP/AUD: 1.8200 for a short
AUD/NZD: 1.07000 to long. I’d look to short form 1.1200.
AUD/CAD: I am looking to short at 0.9200
NZD/CHF: 0.63200 to short.
GBP/NZD: I’m going to look for a short at the open. Multiple reasons for the stop. Alternatively if it breaks higher, look for a pullback to the 1.95500 area.
EUR/CAD: 1.37800 on the 4H for a possible short.
As always, remember correlation!
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