My analysis remains the same from Sunday in that I am still waiting for the Fed statement that will be released later today. However I do have 1 potential trade on my radar from a WEEKLY chart that I will take even if price spikes with the Fed news. Take a look at this $/Chf chart to see the multiple reasons why this potential trade is so tempting.
0.9150 is 78.6% fib of the recent weekly moves.
Its the daily 200ema.
Its previous support (though not the strongest example) and just above it we have the weekly 55ema which is pointing down as is the Bollinger band. Bollingers closing is a clue that liquidity is drying up.
Usually this type of Bollinger Is the point at which price reverses. Sometimes price simply touches it and bounces away, other times it will pierce the bands and then turn down.
I am looking to sell at A
Stop at B 0.9210 ( I may move that down if the bollinger touches the 55ema).
1st Target is 0.9000 and the balance I will let run, hopefully to the recent low at D worst case scenario is its a 1:3 risk reward ratio.
Don’t sell the Yen When Risk is Off
On Sunday I explained briefly how the global macro economic events in Argentina, China and Turkey and the Dow drop could all affect the currency markets. Our guest writer, Fotis Papatheofanous has not had the time to provide us with his written analysis in recent weeks, but he and I recorded a discussion on Monday morning, before London opened as to what has been happening, how he sees global events unfolding and their effect on currencies.
As he points out, in times of upheaval and crisis the Yen is still seen as a safe haven currency, which is why the $, Gbp et al, all fell last week. This knowledge is vital for next time it happens to keep you out of shorting the Yen.
New members please note: If I am looking to take a trade long, at for example 1.5000 , I place my order 10 pips above & 10 pips below for a short. This is because price often does not quite reach a major line and you need to allow for spreads.
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