Good morning all.

Well this week was dominated by the FOMC that was scheduled for Wednesday.

For the first part of the week most pairs were slow…….except  for the GBP/JPY that triggered long from our earth and sky long zone that gave almost 200 pips from the 75% fib area before Wednesday’s red flag news.

Wednesday the news came out and the momentum kicked in……..

I warned that we were at a key support level on the Dollar Index and till that broke to the downside……………the head and shoulder pattern was not on for me !!! 

This morning we can see how right we were in our thinking !!!

With the Dollar Index finding the support and the momentum kicking in with the FOMC – other pairs I look at kicked in from my levels I called.

However…….There is nothing like hindsight is there ?

The Euro/Dollar drove I think most of us up the wall this week. Price hit the MR1 pivot at 1.1792 BUT FOR SIX DAYS didnt move…so now emotions and the pressure started to take over as more and more news and tweets and blog posts hit the web saying that we might break this area to the UPSIDE ?

With the pressure building……..things are never that easy in real time as in hindsight is it ?

Looking at the chart this morning ……it should have been an easy short…….I think the fact that it camped out at this area for SIX DAYS made people anxious !!!

……………………………………………………………………………..

Lets have a look how we did this week with our analysis.

……………………………………………………………………………..

1) Euro Index on the 4 hour chart :

Currently I have an Earth and Sky long zone between 107.09 and 106.76 with areas to keep an eye on the 107.08 and 106.96 and 106.82 and 106.72 support areas where after I will re look to long this pair again.

Possible counter shorts at 107.74 and 108.00 resistance areas.

Notes:

Currently in no man’s land – wait for price to come to you.

Fridays notes:

Price touched the WR1 pivot at 107.74 and dropped back in the early part of the week….there after it got stuck in a triangle that broke later to the downside.

Price dropped in to the earth and sky long zone but didn’t give any conformation to long yet……price currently breaking now a key support area at the 75% fib and cluster of EMA`S at 106.70.

Looks like we on our way to last week’s low at 106.42.

Still no confirmation to long yet.

……………………………………………………………….

2) Euro Dollar on the 4 hour chart:

The direction Indi is mixed on the daily…..but long on the 4 hour chart so I will fib the 4 hour chart this week to get a long zone.

Currently I have an Earth and Sky long zone between 1.1719 and 1.1669 with areas to keep an eye on the 1.1726 and 1.1706 support areas where after I will re look to long this pair again.

Possible counter shorts at 1.1831 and 1.1900 resistance areas.

Notes:

Currently in no man’s land – wait for price to come to you. If price breaks the 62.5 fib at 1.1694 to the downside…..be careful as we can then drop to the WS1 pivot and 4 hour 200 EMA and daily 55 EMA at 1.1645 where I will re look to long from.

Fridays notes:

Looking at the daily chart this morning we can see how helpful the MR1 pivot was at 1.1792. Price moved bullish last week but slammed into this resistance area and for 6 days camped out at this level before we had the drop yesterday !!!

Looks like we on our way to last month’s low and monthly main pivot at 1.1547 areas.

……………………………………………………………….

3) Euro JPY on the 4 hour chart:

Currently I have an Earth and Sky long zone between 131.62 and 130.87 with areas to keep an eye on the 131.62 and 131.25 resistance areas where after I will re look to long this pair again.

Possible counter shorts at 133.52 and 134.83 resistance areas.

Notes:

If price makes new higher highs without the correction we want….follow price with your fib to get the adjusted long zone for the week.

Fridays notes:

Price moved bullish on Monday but slammed into the psychological level at 133.00 and then camped out there 3 days before it dropped yesterday.

Currently we sitting at a support area at the weekly main pivot and 55 EMA at 131.81 that can be key support.

……………………………………………………………….

4) Euro GBP on the 4 hour chart :

Currently I have an Earth and Sky long zone between 0.8921 and 0.8883 with areas to keep an eye on the 38.2 fib at 0.8938 and 0.8930 and 0.8922 support areas where after I will re look to long this pair again.

Possible counter shorts at 0.9000 and 0.9035 resistance areas.

Notes:

If price breaks the 60% fib at 0.8922 to the downside be careful as we might then drop to the WS1 pivot at 0.8883 and the daily 200 EMA at 0.8867 where I will re look to long from.

Fridays notes:

Price dropped since Monday back from 0.8995 into the earth and sky long zone…..HOWEVER we broke loads of EMA`s at the 50% fib to the downside and by the looks of it we on our way to the daily 200 EMA at 0.8868 area.

……………………………………………………………….

5) GBP Dollar on the DAILY chart:

* Main trend is still short……however last week we closed plus 10pips higher than the opening so I can’t fib the 4 hour to get a short zone and have to fib the daily chart – on the daily we already passed last month’s high so we can’t fib that for a short zone – Plan B  *

Notes:

We have currently resistance at the daily 200 EMA at 1.3268 up to 1.3300 where I will look for possible shorts to set up from.

Possible support area at the 4 hour 200 EMA and daily 55 EMA at 1.3037 where I will look for a possible long to set up from.

Fridays notes:

This one for most of the week went sideways and only now getting to the possible bottom area at 1.3048 where we might find the support we want before we can re look to long again.

……………………………………………………………….

6) GBP JPY on the 4 hour chart:

Currently I have an Earth and Sky long zone between 147.99 and 147.12 with areas to keep an eye on the 55 EMA at 147.12 support areas where after I will re look to long this pair again.

Possible counter shorts at 149.16 and 149.71 resistance areas.

Notes:

Yesterday price found support at the 55 EMA and moved bullish…..this will be a key support area for me this week. If it breaks to the downside for some reason….be careful as we can drop then to last week’s low at 146.26 and even deeper to 145.77/35 where we have a daily 55 EMA and a 4 hour 200 EMA where I then will re look to long from.

Fridays notes:

This one triggered from the 75% fib area at 147.12 on Monday and moved bullish and got to the psychological level just under the WR1 pivot at 149.00 where profit take was for this long trade.

Price dropped back to the earth and sky long zone and once again found support at the weekly main pivot and 55 EMA at 147.74

Currently trapped in a triangle again.

……………………………………………………………..

7) Aussie Dollar on the DAILY chart:

* Main trend is still short……however last week we closed plus 134 pips higher than the opening so I can’t fib the 4 hour to get a short zone and have to fib the daily chart *

Currently I have an Earth and Sky short zone between 0.7269 and 0.7362 with areas to keep an eye on the 0.7250 and 0.7279 and 0.7300 resistance areas where after I will relook to short this pair again.

Possible counter longs at 0.7178 and 0.7079 support areas.

Notes:

The 0.7300 resistance area is key for this pair. While it holds my bias will be to look for shorts.

Fridays notes:

The bear trend line kept this one down at the 50% fib and 55 EMA and monthly main pivot at 0.7272 area.

Currently 70 odd pips up with first profit take at the WS1 pivot at WS1 pivot at 0.7178

………………………………………………………………

8) Aussie JPY on the DAILY chart:

* Main trend is still short……however last week we closed plus 192 pips higher than the opening so I can’t fib the 4 hour to get a short zone and have to fib the daily chart 

Currently I have an Earth and Sky short zone between 80.88 and 81.98 with areas to keep an eye on the 82.98 and 82.50 resistance areas where after I will relook to short this pair again.

Possible counter longs at 80.31 and 78.75 support areas.

Notes:

The daily resistance 200 EMA at 82.50 is key !!! While it holds as resistance….my bias will be to look for shorts.

Fridays notes:

The MR1 pivot and daily 200 EMA at 82.48 kept this one down but it looks like we might be trapped between the daily 200 EMA at 82.48 and the 4 hour 200 EMA at 81.00 area at the moment.

 ………………………………………………

9) Dollar JPY on the 4 hour chart:

Currently I have an Earth and Sky long zone between 112.31 and 111.98 with areas to keep an eye on the 112.31 and 111.98 support areas where after I will relook to long  this pair again.

Possible counter shorts at 113.06 and 113.56 resistance areas.

Notes:

Be careful with counter trades as we have s strong bullish channel on the 4 hour chart.

Fridays notes:

In the early part of the week price found resistance at the WR1 pivot at 113.00 – we had MACD divergence so a counter short triggered……price dropped back to the 34 EMA where it found support again…..With the news this week it broke to the upside breaking the high and WR1 pivot at 113.00 – Currently hitting the WR2 pivot at 113.56 so possible counter trades can set up from here.

………………………………………………………………

10) Dollar CAD on the 4 hour chart:

Currently I have an Earth and Sky short zone between 1.2975 and 1.3020 with areas to keep an eye on 1.2964 and 1.2975 and 1.3000 resistance levels where after I will relook to short this pair again.

Possible counter longs at 1.2845 support areas.

Notes:

Hitting the first resistance area here this morning at the 200 EMA at 1.2964 area.

Fridays notes:

This pair pulled back and broke the first resistance area at the 50% fib  and with the news we went straight past the earth and sky short zone…..but slammed right into last week’s high at 1.3065 where it burned. Currently dropping back and we might be on the way again to the daily 200 EMA again at 1.2967 area.

………………………………………………………………

11) Dollar Index on the DAILY chart:

Notes:

Still have the head and shoulder in place. Price broke the neckline to the downside BUT we have that big support at the MS1 pivot at 94.00 and the 200 EMA at 93.82 area where we found support last week.

We might be trapped between the daily 200 EMA at 94.90 and the 4 hour 200 EMA at 93.85 area so I will be looking for possible trades to set up from here.

Fridays notes:

I warned for a week or so against that support area at the MS1 pivot and 200 EMA at 94.00. Price for most camped out here for 6 days before it jumped with the news that came out his week…….Looks like we on our way to the monthly main pivot at 95.49 area.

……………………………………………………………

12) Aussie/NZD on the 4 HOUR chart:

Notes:

Looks like we in a sideway channel for the last 4  weeks with a top at 1.1000 and a bottom at 1.0870/50 area. I will be looking for possible trades to set up from here.

Fridays notes:

This was a fast mover this week…..price touched the support zone area at 1.0872 and burned within seconds here

Currently back at the weekly main pivot area again at 1.0927.

……………………………………………………………

Have a super weekend.

Regards

Pierre