Weekly analysis: A-grade setups but Caution rules the week

by | Sep 6, 2021 | Forex Analysis

Hi everyone,
The charts feel a little crazy at the moment, with the currencies of the economies in lockdown strengthening across the board. I had a losing week this past week, but my risk management is always sound and I know that statistically I’m more likely to get the next one right. Remember you can be very successful in forex by only even being right 50% of the time.

The NFP news on Friday created weakness in the dollar and on the dollar index chart (DXY) price is now teasing the 200 EMA. I’ll be keeping a careful eye on the 91.8/92 level as a brake below this could mean further dollar weakness.

There is loads of red flag news this week, so be extra cautious! 

Monday is a public holiday for the USA & Canada and this could very well mean a slower than usual USD and CAD. There is also loads of red flag news around, especially, the CAD so it might be a better approach to leave CAD trades until next week.

Remember we always have to keep correlation in mind.  Correlation is the measure of how currency pairs​ move together i.e. the same way or in the opposite way. Taking trades on pairs that statistically move in the same way would mean you are doubling your risk. Here is a link to the handy mataf correlation tool I mention in the video: correlation tool

 

Let’s have a look at some potential levels;

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The live training session: Here is a link to register for this week’s live training session which takes place on Tuesday 7 September at 11.00am London time (BST/GMT+1).

https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_phGHDW3WRqWFxy1muriUVw

Then we can have a more detailed, up-to-the-minute look at what’s happening and potential trades for the rest of the week.

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The Forex week ahead:


MAJORS

EUR/USD:  1.1660 is still an A- grade long for me. 1.200 is also major area of previous support and resistance.

USD/CHF: Stuck in a triangle, leaving it alone for now.

GBP/USD: We had a break of a range on a daily chart and price is now at an interesting area. Problem is the news this week. If price can stay above the ema’s we could start looking for pullbacks in order to take longs.

NZD/USD: Again, fundamentally it doesn’t make sense with NZ being in lockdown, but price broke higher and I’d be looking for a long from around 70.70

AUD/USD: Fundamentally it doesn’t make sense, but we need to trade what we see and I’d now be looking for a break above 0.75 to start to look for pullbacks.

USD/JPY: 108.400 is the A-grade area to long from. Alternatively, look for a break of the triangle on a daily chart. (see video)

USD/CAD: Too messy for me at the moment for M2. A break above (on a weekly) of 1.3000 is the area on this pair to watch. Intraday, 1.2460 and 1.2850 look interesting. Again, be careful of all the CAD news this week.


CROSSES

AUD/NZD: 1.0680 is a BIG area for a potential M2 pullback, short. I’m looking to split my entry at around 1.0680 & 1.0640

EUR/GBP: I’m looking to short at 0.8650 -stop around 0.8715. (Remember you need to adjust your entries as the ema’s move)

EUR/NZD:  In a range at the moment, but with ema’s in the way. See the video on how I plan to play this.

GBP/AUD: In an good area on a daily, but no reasons for the stop. I’d be looking to go down to the 4H chart and look for entries.

GBP/CAD: LOTS of news this week that could affect this. I’ll wait until next week to see what it does.

EUR/NZD: Broken out of a range, but I don’t have any areas/reasons for the stop yet.

AUD/JPY: 81.30 is the area to consider a long for those that trade intraday.

EUR/JPY: Broken higher. 1.300 is the area to watch.

 

As always, remember correlation!


M3 -Shorter timeframes. 

See the new course & recent blog posts as to how I do this: I do my analysis on daily and weekly charts first and make a note of the MAJOR areas of support and resistance. Then copy them onto Pierre’s Earth and sky template. Then I make a note of the weekly & monthly pivots points and add them to the charts. You will see lots of opportunities line up during the week. The important thing then is to select a bias for the next few days and do NOT take trades if the price is too near a trend line or pivot. Ideally, you want to buy when the price is near a major support and or pivot point line and has the potential to make at least 40 pips. Vice versa for a short.

New members, please note: If I am looking to take a trade long, for example, 1.5000, I place my order 10 pips above & 10 pips below for a short. This is because price often does not quite reach a major line and you need to allow for spreads.

We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself.

For more up to the minute, updates do not forget to drop by the forum. Ashley is back from his travels and there are other senior members who are happy to help.

Watch the video below for more detailed explanations of this week’s analysis and trade plan:

Related posts:

Strong dollar for FebruaryWeekly analysis: LOTS of BIG trades setting up. Weekly analysis -Majors heating up. Weekly analysis: 1 Pair + 3 Trades = Full month’s target Weekly Analysis: $ Break or Fake?

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