Marcs Analysis: Limited Movement? What to Do?
Hi, forex trading has not been easy in the last few months, but I see a brighter future in my crystal ball 🙂
If you have managed to be moderately successful in the last few months or even just control the drawdown then you have done well.
For the rest of this year if ranges stay small then I show in the video how going down to a 4-hour chart can give a lot more possible trade setups.
Remember if you want to trade for clients and receive a substantial profit share you only need to make 3 to 5% per month.
You can find a copy of the brochure here: Trade for Clients
When trading technically we are looking for repeatable patterns. There has never been anyone like Trump before. There has never been a Brexit scenario.
There has not, in living memory been a world wide epidemic that has brought economies to their knees.
To have all three at the same time is unbelievable. Thankfully come January two of the issues will be gone, one way or the other and I expect things to be a lot easier, so hang on in there!
This week there is a lot of AUD news which will make it tricky to trade and there are ongoing problems with their biggest trading partner, China who slapped a 200% duty on Australian wines on Friday.
This is bad enough on its own for the Aussies, but if China decides to cause more problems it could push Australia into a recession.
It’s also NFP Friday this week which we never trade so as ever keep your eye on the news and calendars.
This Weeks Trading Ideas
I explained last week that I expected the Bitcoin drop and made a plan to buy more. I did so at $17400 & 1.16200 & I still have orders in place if it drops further to 1.1540 and 14400 & 13000. I also bought more of some of the smaller coins in my portfolio.
The drop was to be expected as the price had made huge moves and it neared the all-important highs from 2018. I am convinced that Bitcoin and crypto are going mainstream and therefore this is a buying opportunity for me.
There will be more volatility along the way but all the reasons I explained in my recent webinar on the subject remain the same. Please note I BUY crypto and do NOT trade it as it’s far too wild and the spikes will take you out more times than not.
Marcs Analysis: Limited Movement? What to Do?
Forex
Some of the longer time frame setups are the same or very similar. As I show in the video if you struggle to find anything on longer timeframes go down to a 4 hour chart and look at the structure and where the areas of support and resistance are.
Aud/Nzd: Almost the same as last week: Its in a 300 pip daily down channel. I will scale into this, half of the entry at 106.40 and the other at 106.60 with my stop above the 55ema and whole number.
Euro/Nzd: Not interested now at the bottom unless it breaks and closes on a daily above the 200eme, then I would consider a long. Most conservative trade is a short around 1.7450/1.7500 maybe later in the week or after a Brexit announcement in the next few weeks.
Nzd/Chf: Still looking to long at 0.6210 for multiple reasons.
Gbp/Yen: If it shoots up swing traders will look to short at 142.30 area.
Regular pairs: Many are the same as last week with the occasional “tweak” so pay attention 🙂
€uro/$: too messy now I either need a move up t0 1.2000 for a possible short or down to 1.1530 for a long.
Chf: Intraday 0.9120 might interest some of you for a short.
Euro/Gbp: Brexit is a nuisance still BUT its in a 500 pip weekly triangle. If it can break above 0.9050 and then pull back to 9015 I will long it.
Gbp/$: I said last week that “1.3300 is key in both directions. It still is! Keep your eye on news re Brexit if you trade it. If there is a positive move up then this could go to 1.3500 so I will watch at the open for a possible long. The more conservative entry is to wait for it to break and close above 1.3350 then pullback, but if the news is positive it could just keep going. If its negative then 1.3300 is where swing traders will look for a short.
If it drops and its not a crazy Brexit related spike then 1.3150 looks good for a long. If there is a really crazy Brexit spike down then watch 1.2900 as it will be the last line in the sand.
$/Yen: I only want to short 105.90 is the first area. If it shoots up then 106.85 is stronger. However, Jonah pointed out to me in our Saturday private session that on the 4 hour charts it is in a range and 104.60 looks a good place for a short.
Cad: Messy. Only just broke below 1.3000 and it has recently “faked out” there so I am not in a rush to short unless it makes a significant move lower then pulls back. There doesn’t appear to be any energy/momentum in this right now, maybe this weeks news can give it a kick!
If it moves higher then 1.3100 might give a limited win short. I much prefer a move up to 1.3300 to short.
Nzd: Just kept going, still need a pullback to long at 0.6820. Swing traders will be looking to short at 0.7050
Aud: The Chinese news concerns me with the Aud and there is a lot of red flag news too, but it has broken a weekly trendline and monthly 55ema so its a significant break. Be careful & half the risk if you take it. 0.7320 is the area to look to long. If it does a big drop then a long at 0.7010 is the place for me.
Aud/Yen: 75.00 to long and 78.00 to short
Euro/Yen Stopped to the pip at weekly trendline and monthly 55ema. I will not short as there is too much in the way below it, but if it breaks and closes on a daily above 125.20 then pulls back I will look to long it.
Cad/Yen It broke then closed sitting on 80.00 to tempt us to long 🙂 watch it at the open. Its another one that seems to have no momentum right now. Also interested to short at 82.30. Don’t be in more than one Yen at a time.
Marcs Analysis: Limited Movement? What to Do?
M3 Shorter timeframes
See the new course & recent blog posts as to how I do this: I do my analysis on daily and weekly charts first and make a note of the MAJOR areas of support and resistance. Then copy them on to Pierre’s Earth and sky template. Then I make a note of the weekly & monthly pivots points and add them to the charts. You will see lots of opportunities line up during the week. The important thing then is to select a bias for the next few days and do NOT take trades if the price is too near a trend line or pivot. Ideally, you want to buy when the price is near a major support and or pivot point line and has the potential to make at least 40 pips. Vice versa for a short.
New members, please note: If I am looking to take a trade long, for example, 1.5000, I place my order 10 pips above & 10 pips below for a short. This is because price often does not quite reach a major line and you need to allow for spreads.
We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself.
For more up to the minute, updates do not forget to drop by the forum.
Watch the video for more detailed explanations of this week’s analysis and trade plan.
Marcs Analysis: Limited Movement? What to Do?
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