Hi, this is Marc with my analysis for the week commencing 9th February 2014. I explained in my analysis for 2014 that I intend to trade wherever possible from weekly charts this year. Place a trade at the market open, walk away, job done. However a few members have asked me to explain how I deal with news.
Often on longer timeframes price will go in the predicted direction despite news, so do you just take the trade anyway OR apply some extra trade management?
I show in the start of todays video how I traded the Euro/Gbp & Gbp/$ AFTER Thursdays interest rate news and even left the second part of a trade running through NFP eek 🙂 Does this mean I am turning into a adrenalin fuelled news junkie? No way, BUT, as ever, if I see MAJOR area that have multiple reasons I will take the trade.
Best advice is don’t trade during NFP (yes I know I contradict myself) nor FOMC and be wary with speeches like the upcoming Yellen and Carney ones this week. What I am saying (and show in detail in the video) if there is a big news spike to where you have selected an entry on a weekly chart AND you have multiple reasons, then consider taking the trade once the dust settles and the move appears to have run out of steam.
The week ahead
Lots of pairs are technically all over the place. Trends heading one way and emas, macd etc pointing the other SO we could be on for a reversal or minor pause. The trick is to guesstimate which is correct OR like me zoom out to weekly charts.
Gbp/$ Technically messy. Weekly I will place an order to long at 1.6030. Its 78.6% fib, confluence of 200/55ema. Previous support and resistance. In other words, multiple reasons
Intraday: There is a daily channel with a low around 1.6300. There is also support & resistance at 1.6255 so 2 options. Long at 1.6300 with stop at 1.1645 OR take half there and half at 1.6260. Its a tricky one to call, make your own decisions as ever.
If it doesn’t pull back and keeps heading north then consider a long if price breaks and closes clearly above 1.6400, then look for a pullback
Euro/$: Trend line break, macd divergence & possible daily down channel suggest a short, but support is holding around 1.3460 so its tricky.
Weekly 1.3400 is the area for me. Whole number, 61.8% fib, weekly 200/55ema cross over just below.
Intra day, lots options, none particularly scream at me. 1.3700 is key. Swing traders consider shorts there. Personally I will be interested if price breaks and closes above 1 .3700 on a daily chart, then I will consider a pull back there to long.
Chf (don’t take at same time as Euro/$ as they are negatively correlated) I have an order in to short at 0.9140 for multiple reasons. 78.6% weekly fib, weekly 55ema, daily 200, upper bollinger and previous support & resistance
Intra day consider M2 shorts/pullbacks below 0.9000 but not for me, support has broken too many times for my liking.
Euro/Gbp Best pair this year for % win ratio. I have been shorting at 0.8350 intraday and have an order to short at 0.8400 on a weekly for those multiple reasons once more: whole number, major previous support and resistance, weekly 55ema/daily 200ema, daily 78.6% fib – how many do I need 🙂
Intra day consider M2 shorts if price breaks and closes below 0.8290 on a daily, but not for me.
Aud: I lost shorting last week at 0.8900 after news, so as ever nothing is guaranteed
Weekly I would love a big pull back and 0.9300 has multiple reasons to short- see the video
Intra day 0.9000 is key. Swing traders look for clues to short back down. Other option is an M2 break and close followed by a pull back to 0.9000 for a long.
Cad: Went 600+ pips of my anticipated 1500 for 2014! BUT Fridays Canadian job news was much better than expected and the Usa’s was worse, so we could be on for a pullback and it could be a substantial one. I show in the video my approach for this one as I definitely want to get into the BIG whoppa!
1.0800 is first. Its a weekly trend line intersecting with daily 55ema and 61.8% fib. If that fails I will try again at 1.0700 and finally 1.0600 any one of these could be a HUGE move so a few losers along the way will not matter. The hard part is if the first 2 lose, having the confidence to take the 3rd!
Yens: As Fotis and Mary (Trainspotting in the forum) have explained in detail the yens are most affected by global macro events that affect risk on or off sentiment. Last week Fotis and I discussed this in detail in a blog post video and Mary updates regularly. Personally i am going to leave all yens alone for a few days to see how they react to NFP, speeches, stock markets et al
The only trades I will take is a long on the $/Yen at 100.00 and or the Euro/Yen at 131.00 for technical reasons as explained in the video
New members please note: If I am looking to take a trade long, at for example 1.5000 , I place my order 10 pips above & 10 pips below for a short. This is because price often does not quite reach a major line and you need to allow for spreads.
Hope you enjoy the analysis!! See you Wednesday for an update!! Best wishes and happy trading to all!!!
Weekly Outlook Video:
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