Trade What You See

Trade What You See: Nothing has been straight forwards so far this year, and yet we still manage to be profitable 🙂

On Friday the Dollar index held above the 200ema after the break out which is currently looking positive for the USD. If it can keep going up after NFP on Friday THEN we could have some easier months ahead, fingers crossed 🙂

Last year was fairly straight forwards as the $ kept going up so we simply bought that or sold everything else. If the price keeps going then we will just look to buy, buy buy. However- you knew there would be a “but”- another major US or European bank crash and it could all reverse in a heartbeat.

Similarly, if this coming Friday’s NFP surprises to the downside then we might drop back into the range

I still remain convinced we will see a recession this year, but for now we “trade what we see.”

Very good fundamental analysis from Marc Chandler:

http://www.marctomarket.com/

Here is our channel Marc Walton & Forex Mentorpro

Here is the short video about why you should NOT trade through the news:

The only time I might hold trades through NFP (I do NOT open new ones) is when this happens:

The Forex Week +++++++++++++++++++++++

This coming Friday Its NFP – No Forex Please 🙂 I explain in part 1 why I NEVER trade it BUT I show, for advanced folks only, how I sometimes manage open trades during the release.

It’s also a Bank Holiday in most of the West on Monday which usually results in very little movement, aka “watching paint dry.” Occasionally it goes crazy, I prefer to sit it out.

A lot of potential trades this week require me to go down to 4-hour charts to look for confirmation/multiple reasons for the stops.

Keep watching the $index as it now broke the 200ema/ “make your mind up” area on the weekly charts. If it keeps going we could be looking at $ strength and an easier summer period.

Remember I am looking for “A” grade trades from weekly & daily charts that I can place the orders and then just walk away. A “B” grade is one that I will watch on smaller timeframes to see how it reacts if it hits my zone or after big news.

EUR/USD: Im looking for a long at 1.0725/half at 1.0690 at the weekly 55 EMA on the daily. 1.1000 will get my attention for a possible short backdown. The final option if it breaks and clearly closes below 1.0670 on a daily I will look for an M2 break out, pullback to short. Make a plan for all outcomes.

USD/CHF: A grade short at 0.9400. I will watch 0.9300 on a 4 hour. I am not really interested where it is right now BUT I show in the video how you could choose to play it if it can close above 0.9100 and then pullback.

Do not take the Euro/$ & Chf at the same time. They are correlated so it’s the same “bet.”

GBP/USD: No multiple reasons to take it so leaving it alone. EUR is a better bet.

AUD/USD: My bias is to short but leaving it alone for now. 0.6790 is an A grade. On the way up 0.6670 is an area to watch on 4 hour or lower.

NZDUSD: No multiple reasons to take the trade from the trendline break. I need a bigger pullback. 0.6200 to 0.6250 is the area to watch.

USD/CAD: The first area to long at 1.3340 and the A grade for me is 1.30070 which has been a MAJOR area of support and resistance in the past. I will watch it.

USDYEN: I want to get back in but will be extra cautious. An area of interest is 138.00 on 4 hour

CROSSES

Some are A grades where I will place forward orders, most pairs have “areas of interest.” I have a lot of similar crosses so be very careful with the correlation.

Nzd/Cad: A grade for me to short at 83.70 for multiple reasons, see the video.

NZDJPY: 84.30 would be my first area of interest to buy again. I will split it in two. half there and half at 83.80

CADJPY: A grade for me to long at 100.20

EURGBP: leaving it alone for now as its stuck in a 40 pip range. I want it to break higher or, even better, lower for an entry- see the video.

EURCAD: I have an order at 1.4460.

The rest are a long way away right now, but you never know, especially with NFP.

EURAUD: I will long at 1.5810

AUDCAD: A grade if pulls back at 0.90700. I show in the video how 0.8940 is worth watching on a 4 hour.

GBNZD: Interested to long at 1.9610/1.95800 for multiple reasons.

GBPAUD: Correlated with GBPNZD, Looking to long around 1.81150.

GBPCAD: 1.6425 is the sweet spot for me. watch the news.

GBPCHF: 1.1320 on a 4 hour and 1.1390 is where I have placed my forward order, need to move it lower as the EMAs have moved. It is a major area of resistance but still far away, been waiting for weeks. I will also watch 1.1380 to short.

As always, remember correlation!

We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself.

Watch the video below for more detailed explanations of this week’s analysis and trade plan (click the 4 arrows bottom right to view full-screen):

Regards

Marc