Live: Be Careful Who You Listen to!
In today’s webinar I went through what is going on in the current markets, being careful about who we listen to, and also the YEN as it’s currently almost at its previous high when the BOJ intervened in the market.
I have said it several times in the past, always take it with a pinch of salt in whatever you see out there. Never believe what the banks or brokers are saying, because they mostly do the opposite of what they say.
It’s not just the banks but there are influential people out there who could be doing it too. Take for example Warren Buffet, he holds around 46% of Apple shares in the market. So if he sells some of his shares it could affect the price for Apple. If he makes a comment on any of his holdings it could affect the prices of those shares.
In 2020, when COVID hit the world, he came out saying he would not be selling his airline stocks. But two months later he sold all of his airline stocks. He did this so that he could keep the price of those shares stable. But it made sense if the world was coming to a halt, the tourism industry was going to get hurt as traveling was restricted. Hence many people lost their jobs in the travel industry and airports had to cut down on staff.
I wont be selling airline stocks
Warren buffet sells airline stocks
Investors cheer strong earnings
Another way the bank can intervene in the market is verbally. The BOJ has been doing this for the past couple of months now trying to strengthen the YEN, but this clearly hasn’t worked. The YEN is approaching its previous high and it’s very likely they will intervene again so that the YEN doesn’t weaken further. A cheaper YEN affects they import and export prices and causes an imbalance. Japan as we know imports most of its goods so their imports will become more expensive. Similarly, if the YEN is too cheap it will affect their export prices.
I also spoke about the current market conditions. Currently, we have a risk-off environment as most of the investors are turning towards the Dollar. We can clearly see this in the DXY. Short-term and long-term bonds are also giving good interest rates so its a no-brainer for investors to shift their money toward the bonds.
Talking about someone I trust, I do read Marc Chandler’s article weekly as he gives a good overview of the market.
I also shared Peter St Onge article with you this week, below you can find his website where you can subscribe to his newsletter for free.
I also follow ALF who is an ex bond trader and knows what he is talking about.
Alf (@MacroAlf) / X (twitter.com)
You can also follow me on twitter
Marcs Twitter https://twitter.com/marcwalton
Below is the link to the article summarising what happened during the meeting at Jekyll island in 1910.
If the FED breaks the market along the way and if we do see a recession then it will start the whole cycle again and we could see the money printing to continue just like Peter St Onge said in his article. This then bring us to the Debt limit issue that we had last year.
You can watch the full webinar below.
Kind regards,
Marc
