The Big event of the month for May is here. The FED gather again this week to decide on the interest rates and monetary policy for the year ahead. There are also some fears that another bank crash could be coming. These fears were seen in the market on Friday which is why we had some wild moves. So be very careful, maybe the market could open with a gap if something happens on the weekend. Keep an eye on the news.
First Republic Bank stocks plunge
The BOJ decided to continue with its monetary policy as it is and continue with the easing. This was the reason why we saw the JPY weaken further and had some big moves on Friday. The governor also gave us a clue that they won’t change it anytime soon. He said they need 1.5 years to review the whole Japanese monetary policy to make changes to it as they want to review it going back to 25 years in the past. I suggest you read Marc to Market article who has explained it really well in his blog post. Added the link below:
The Forex Week Ahead+++++++++++++++++++++++
It is one of those weeks again where we have plenty of Red Flag news, so it will be tricky to trade. There is Bank holiday in England and across all of Europe so suggest not to trade on Monday as it could be slow. Then you have AUD cash rate on Tuesday , CPI for Europe. Wednesday you have the FED FOMC announcement. I would suggest to not open any trades on this day and wait until the press conference is over, it will be a very volatile time in the market. Then on Thursday you have the EUR finance rate, so wait until that is out. Finally Friday is NFP which we don’t trade. So make a plan to trade around the news and try to be extra cautious before opening a trade.
This week’s live training session. If there is anything specific you would like us to cover please submit a ticket via the helpdesk.
Keep watching the $index it is now at a major “make your mind up” area on the weekly charts. I said a few weeks ago that even though it was dropping I suspected a move up was more likely than down, so far that has turned out to be the case.
Remember I am looking for “A” grade trades from weekly & daily charts that I can place the orders and then just walk away. A “B” grade is one that I will watch on smaller timeframes to see how it reacts if it hits my zone.
DXY: MACD divergence is a clue that it could reverse and the $ could strengthen this week.
EUR/USD: Im looking for a long at 1.0700 at the weekly 55 EMA on the daily. 1.10660 is a possible swing trade.
USD/CHF: A grade short at 0.94100, not interested where it is right now.
Do not take the Euro/$ & Chf at the same time. They are correlated so it’s the same “bet.”
GBP/USD: I would be interested to long at 1.2300 on the Daily. Watch the video.
AUD/USD:It is in a range. I would be interested to short at 0.67900.
NZDUSD: Currently In a triangle, needs a breakout for clear direction.
USD/CAD: The first area to long at 1.3310 and the A grade for me is 1.30040 which has been a MAJOR area of support and resistance in the past.
USDYEN: It has broken triangle which is around 2500 pips. I would wait for a pullback and look to long anywhere around 134 area.
Some are A grades where I will place forward orders, most pairs have “areas of interest.” I have a lot of similar crosses so be very careful with the correlation.
EURGBP:I have a split order at 0.8730 and 0.8710 is the A grade long for me.
EURAUD: I would be looking anywhere around 1.57180 and 1.5640.
EURCAD: I have an order at 1.4450.
AUDCAD: If it pulls back looking to short again at 0.90800. Ashley caught took his profit at 90 pips last week holding it for almost a week.
GBNZD: Interested to long at 1.94600 for multiple reasons.
GBPAUD: Correlated with GBPNZD, Looking to long around 1.8070. 1.7910 is also interesting for long if it drops.
GBPCAD: 1.6330 is the sweet spot for me.
GBPCHF: 1.1490 is where I have placed my forward order. It is a major area of resistance but still far away, been waiting for weeks. I will also watch 1.1360 to short, but a B grade.
Cross YEN pairs: They are miles away now from where I want to enter, I would suggest looking at Earth and Sky next week as it could give us a good area for a Long.
As always, remember correlation!
M3 -Shorter timeframes.
I do my analysis on daily and weekly charts first and make a note of the MAJOR areas of support and resistance. Then copy them onto Pierre’s Earth and sky template. Then I make a note of the weekly & monthly pivots points and add them to the charts. You will see lots of opportunities line up during the week. The important thing then is to select a bias for the next few days and do NOT take trades if the price is too near a trend line or pivot. Ideally, you want to buy when the price is near a major support and or pivot point line and has the potential to make at least 40 pips. Vice versa for a short.
New members, please note: If I am looking to take a trade long, for example, 1.5000, I place my order 10 pips above & 10 pips below for a short. This is because price often does not quite reach a major line and you need to allow for spreads.
We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself.
Watch the video below for more detailed explanations of this week’s analysis and trade plan (click the 4 arrows bottom right to view full-screen):