Hi, in recent weeks I have shown how shifting focus can improve your trading results.
Around 4 weeks ago I showed how Bollinger bands were giving clues as to price slowing down.
More recently it was macd divergence.
The following is my analysis and trade plan that I share with members on a Sunday, every week for the last 12 years!
This week I can see a lot of triangle patterns on longer timeframes that suggest some big breakout moves are on the way. The Cad, for example, suggests we could see a 1000 pip move!
Last week was not an easy one from longer timeframes although the Nasdaq short was a textbook one.
There was also the Euro/Gbp rejecting at 0.8700 once again.
Other than that I had a few trades from the 30 minute set up. Using the weekly and daily charts for the “big picture” then going down to the 30 minute and adding pivot points. Explained in detail in lots of recent posts that you can find in my blog.
In last Tuesday’s live training session I spoke about being careful with the Aud/Nzd as it often goes to sleep until a big news announcement comes out. Then it makes an explosive move.
The very next day it did exactly that!
Aud/Nzd reaction to Nzd interest rate news and press conference. This is why we do NOT trade around such big news releases:
I also showed in the live session the previous week how I was looking for a pullback on Bitcoin to buy some more and that worked to the pip. I do NOT trade crypto as its a crazy ride. I showed last Sunday why you should never trade it with a forex broker as it dropped $1800 at the market open and would have made a serious dent and even blown your account had you been long with leverage.
Whilst I don’t trade the indices nor crypto I have shown in many recent posts how interlinked all markets are and how the skills you learn here at FMP will enable to trade almost all markets and stocks and shares.
Here is the bitcoin pullback. The same setup we look for with forex, we look for multiple reasons and confluence. Why the price is probably going to react. Had you bought a coin this week it peaked around $1800 higher before pulling back:
The forex week ahead
Big Forex Moves
Since making the video, the Bank of England’s chief economist has made some comments to the effect the bank is considering the possibility of negative interest rates and buying riskier assets to try to make money! On Thursday, governor Bailey of the BoE said not. It might just be a journalist’s sensationalist article title, but beware gaps at the open on all Gbp pairs: Bank of England Possible Negative Rates/ Reuters
My preferred method of trading is to place orders at the market open and the daily candle closes. With the uncertainty over the COVID crisis it has not been so easy. This week I see a few opportunities BUT quite a lot more that are in triangle patterns which suggest some explosive moves ahead.
Chf: Didn-t get to my entry last week, but it has worked 9 out of 10 times in the last 3 months. Until or unless 0.9800 breaks I will continue to short. I will split the trade in half. One part at 0.9765 and the other at 0.9790.
Euro/Gbp: In recent weeks I kept you out of losing shorts. Last week it broke higher once more and this time kept going. I only want to long and a pullback to 0.8660 is the best place. I will also be closely watching 0.8700
Gbp/$: see my notes above re possible gaps at the open. I only want to short. It might just carry on dropping from the open. Last week it broke a weekly support area and a daily trend line before stopping at the whole number of 1.2100. I need a pullback and 1.2200 and 1.2300 are the areas, but there is nowhere for the stops so I will only trade it on the 30-minute template.
Euro/$: my bias is to short. It is stuck inside a weekly triangle which suggests a big move is coming. I prefer it to break down and then pullback, but until the triangle does break and close on a daily then all we can do is watch the whole number of 1.0900 where the daily trendline is, then 1.1000.
Eur/Yen: Not my favourite pair and it’s a long way off right now but 120.00 is huge on this pair so I will short if it shoots up to there.
$/Yen: Messy, 107.00 is key on this pair. If it breaks higher I will look for reasons to long with a target of 108.90. Then short at 109.00. The concern if it breaks below 107.00 for a short is that it will probably struggle at 106.00 once more, so might be a limited move.
Cad: Inside a weekly 1000 pip triangle and ranging on the daily between 1.3850 and 1.4250- see the video.
Aud: Nothing has changed for me, I said last week “my bias is to short, but it looks as though it wants to go higher. It broke down but then stopped to the pip at the 55ema. If it keeps dropping then I need that to break and close on a daily below 0.6370 and then pullback to short. If it moves up then I will be looking for an entry to still short.
Aud/Yen: Did it again last week bounced off the all-important 70.00 recently so its the first place to look for clues to short. My issue is that I don’t have multiple reasons for the stop. One to watch on the 30 minute for entries.
Nzd: It worked for 50 pips last week after the news and on the 30-minute setup when I said “Careful with the news, but if it spikes up to 0.6400 or down to 0.6000 I will look for entries there
Has been the more successful method in recent weeks with some more decent wins last week totalling over 200 pips. All explained in a lot of detail in my recent blog posts. I do my analysis on daily and weekly charts first and make a note of the MAJOR areas of support and resistance. Then copy them on to Pierre’s Earth and sky template. Then I make a note of the weekly & monthly pivots points and add them to the charts. You will see lots of opportunities line up during the week. The important thing then is to select a bias for the next few days and do NOT take trades if price is too near a trend line or pivot. Ideally, you want to buy when price is near a major support and or pivot point line and has the potential to make at least 40 pips. Vice versa for a short, all explained again in todays video.
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New members, please note: If I am looking to take a trade long, for example, 1.5000, I place my order 10 pips above & 10 pips below for a short. This is because price often does not quite reach a major line and you need to allow for spreads.
We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself.
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Watch the video for more detailed explanations of this week’s detailed analysis and trade plan.
Click on the square button bottom right to watch in full-screen mode
Big Forex Moves