If you are currently at the stage in your trading journey where you are being sucked into the “get rich quick” nonsense, then here is a little bit of realism for you, trading is NOT easy.

Those of us who trade full time still make mistakes and errors of judgement, more often than we care to admit!

The secret is to contol the risk. Personally, I (Marc Walton) prefer to trade with the trend. My trading partner Pierre du Plessis, on the other hand, is quite happy to swing trade and its profitable for him, but not the week just ended.

Best advice if you do like to swing trade is reduce the amount you stake, I recommend halving the amount risked.

Here is his summary of last weeks trading ideas for those following his Earth & Sky forex trading system, that he shares with members every Tuesday morning.

What worked, what did not and potential trades that have not set up yet, but may do so in the coming days:

Good morning all

Eish what a week !!

I was soooooo focused on a possible counter long on the Euro/Dollar that I couldn’t see the wood for the trees.

What does that mean you might ask……

`If someone can’t see the wood for the trees in British English, or can’t see the forest for the trees in American English, they are very involved in the details of something and so they do not notice what is important about the thing as a whole. `

and that is exactly what happened to me this week.

Price dropped from last week’s high to the current low – almost 270 pips

When we got to the psychological level and WS1 pivot at 1.0900 I was convinced that this is it…… (IGNORING THE VOLUME/MOMENTUM BEHIND THIS MOVE)

We had MACD divergence and stochastic was oversold (still is) on the 4 hour chart…..I took a long without confirmation from this level…..then price drifted sideways for 24 hours – STILL NO CONFIRMATION TO LONG but I was still holding on to my long position……..as my head was telling me this is the turning point.

and then boom !!!!

I got burned as price broke the support to the downside even taking the WS2 pivot out and the MS2 pivot out with no sign yet that it wants to correct !!!

……..and that ladies and gents brings back to old saying…..THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND !!!

and don’t try and call bottoms and tops.

Yes yes I am on my way…….

You see…..after years and years of trading……you can and will make a boo boo……

As Marc always says…..you have to learn from your mistakes, otherwise what is the purpose…..then move on dot com…..

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How did we do with our analysis this week ?

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1) Euro Dollar on the 4 hour chart:

Direction Indicator: Short on both time frames so we can go ahead and fib the 4 hour time frame for a short zone.   

Currently, I have an Earth and Sky short zone between 1.0999 to 1.1046 with resistance areas to keep an eye on the 38.2 fib at 1.0977 and 1.1000 and 1.1022/44 areas.

I will re-look to short this pair if we find confirmation to short from any of the above levels.

Possible counter longs at 1.0900 and 1.0892 support areas.

Notes:

If we make new lower lows without the correction we want….follow price with your fib to get the adjusted short zone for the week.

Fridays notes:

Naughty one….this one I had my eyes on but it gave a big middle finger and just kept on making new lower lows breaking all support levels on its way down.

In my book we are very very oversold and will prefer a correction to at least 1.0939 where we have a 4 hour 55 EMA and 1.0979 area where we have a MS1 pivot now resistance for possible shorts to set up from again.

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2) Euro JPY on the 4 hour chart:

Direction Indicator: Short on the 4 hour BUT mixed on the daily chart…..I will fib the 4 hour for a short zone even though we only closed min 12 pips lower that the opening.

My bias is short while we stay under the 200 EMA at 121.00 area.

Currently, I have an Earth and Sky short zone between 120.41 to 120.78 with resistance areas to keep an eye on the 38.2 fib at 120.24 and 120.40 and 120.59/89 areas.

I will re-look to short this pair if we find confirmation to short from any of the above levels.

Possible counter longs at 119.64 support areas.

Notes:

If we make new lower lows without the correction we want….follow price with your fib to get the adjusted short zone for the week.

Fridays notes:

This one had a correction to the original 38.2 fib area at 120.18 and dropped taking the low out so we had to follow price with the fib to get the adjusted short zone for the week…..currently very very oversold and will prefer a correction to at least the WS1 pivot that now resistance at 119.64 for possible shorts to set up from again

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3) Euro GBP on the DAILY chart :

Direction Indicator: Long on the 4 hour chart BUT short on the daily chart.

Notes:

Sitting on my hands with this one as it looks like we trapped in a triangle on the daily time frame.

Will re look for possible shorts from 0.8600 and 0.8668 areas…..and possible longs from support area at 0.8320 and 0.8300

Fridays notes:

Currently hitting my support area at 0.8300 if we look left on the chart…..this pair likes the solid numbers…..plus we have the MS1 pivot here too…..

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4) GBP Dollar on the 4 hour chart:

Direction Indicator: Short on the 4 hour BUT long on the daily chart. My bias is short while we under the WR1 pivot at 1.3086 – so I will fib the 4 hour for a short zone.

Currently, I have an Earth and Sky short zone between 1.3027 to 1.3105 with resistance areas to keep an eye on the 38.2 fib at 1.2997 and 1.3035 and 1.3068 areas.

I will re-look to short this pair if we find confirmation to short from any of the above levels.

Possible counter longs at 1.2836 and 1.2812 and 1.2784 areas.

Notes:

If we make new lower lows without the correction we want….follow price with your fib to get the adjusted short zone for the week.

Fridays notes:

Price broke the first resistance area at the 38.2 fib at 1.2991 and even the 200 EMA at the 50% fib at 1.3027 – we currently at a resistance level if we look left so shorts can set up….just don’t like the EMA`S as it can give support and limit the move down.

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5) GBP JPY on the DAILY chart:

Direction Indicator: Short on 4 hour BUT long on the daily.

Notes:

Leaving alone for now…..looks like we trapped in a triangle

If we break to the downside then we can drop to the 200 EMA at 139.89 area where I will re look to long from again if we find good solid support followed by confirmation to long.

Fridays notes:

The triangle broke to the upside yesterday – currently for me in no man’s land and I will re look for resistance at the MR1 pivot at 144.76 again to short from

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6) Aussie Dollar on the 4 hour chart:

Direction Indicator: Short on both time frames however last week we only closed min 7 pips lower than the opening ( min requirement is min 50 in a down trend) so we can’t fib the 4 hour and have to fib the daily chart for the short zone.

Currently, I have an Earth and Sky short zone between 0.6841 and 0.6930 with resistance areas to keep an eye on the 38.2 fib at 0.6798 and 0.6841 and 0.6883

I will re-look to short this pair if we find confirmation to short from any of the above levels.

Possible counter long at 0.6558 support areas.

Notes:

If we make new lower lows without the correction we wanted….follow price with your fib to get the adjusted short zone for the week.

Fridays notes:

Still waiting for a correction. The 4 hour 55 EMA is currently giving resistance but I will prefer a bigger correction to at least the 38.2 fib area at 0.6800 area where we also have the monthly main pivot and some EMA`s to give resistance again.

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7) Aussie JPY on the 4 hour chart:

Direction Indicator: Short on both time frames however last week we closed PLUS 80  pips higher than the opening ( trending long) so we can’t fib the 4 hour and have to fib the daily chart for the short zone.

Currently, I have an Earth and Sky short zone between 74.33 and 75.32 with resistance areas to keep an eye on the 38.2 fib at 73.89 and 74.46 and 75.00

I will re-look to short this pair if we find confirmation to short from any of the above levels.

Possible counter long at 72.35 and 71.00 support areas.

Notes:

If we make new lower lows without the correction we wanted….follow price with your fib to get the adjusted short zone for the week.  

Keep an eye on the 2 x 200 EMA`s in the short zone.

Fridays notes:

Price got to the 50% fib at 74.37 and found resistance at the fib, 55 and 200 EMA in the same area……move down was limited so far…..but this will stay a key resistance area for me.

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8) Dollar JPY on the 4 hour chart:

Direction Indicator: Direction Indi is long on the both time frames.

Currently, I have an Earth and Sky long  zone between 109.16 and 108.74 with support areas to keep an eye on the 38.2 fib at 109.37 and 109.16 and 108.96

I will re-look to long this pair if we find confirmation to long from any of the above levels.

Possible counter shorts at 110.00 and 110.42 resistance areas.

Notes:

If we make new higher highs without the correction we want follow price with your fib to get the adjusted long zone for the week.

Fridays notes:

Price made a slight higher high this week so we had to follow price with our fib to get the adjusted long zone.

Currently the 55 EMA at 109.68 is giving support but I will prefer a bigger correction to at least the new 38.2 fib at 109.43 area where we also have loads of EMA`S and weekly pivot point too. Possible long area for me….

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9) Dollar CAD on the 4 hour chart

Direction Indicator: Direction Indi is long on both time frames.

Currently, I have an Earth and Sky long  zone between 1.3276 to 1.3254 with support areas to keep an eye on the 1.3276 and 1.3265 and 1.3261

I will re-look to long this pair if we find confirmation to long from any of the above levels.

Possible counter shorts 1.3320 to 1.3340 resistance areas.

Notes:

If we make new higher highs without the correction we want…follow price with your fib to get the adjusted long zone for the week.

Be careful if we don’t find support at the 4 hour 55 EMA as we can then drop deeper to lat weeks low at 1.3231 or even lower.

Fridays notes:

Price gave a correction and we dropped back to the long zone…..HOWEVER the support we had at the 55 EMA and 61.8 fib didn’t hold and we had no confirmation to long as price dropped right past the 75% fib at 1.3256 area.

Currently leaving it alone as we can have a deeper correction to last week’s low at 1.3231 again.

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10) Dollar CHF on the 4 hour  chart:

Direction Indicator: Long on the 4 hour BUT short on the daily chart.

Notes:

The direction is still short while we stay under the 200 EMA at 0.9851 area…..we can’t fib the daily chart for a short zone as we already broke last month’s high area…..so plan B

We have a resistance zone between 0.9822 to 0.9877 where we have pivots and the 200 EMA that can give resistance for possible shorts to set up from if we find good solid resistance followed by confirmation to short.

Fridays notes:

This one is slowly but surely working its way up to that resistance zone between 0.9822 and 0.9877 area.

Its negative correlated (moving in opposite directions) to the Euro/Dollar but the Euro had a very very stronger move this week than the CHF.

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Regards

Pierre