Hi, on Friday I closed out the Aud short for 125 pips profit.
This was a trade I analysed in advance in great detail in the live session of the 5th June.
I explained how technically and fundamentally I felt that this was a great trade setup.
I was first alerted to it in my Sunday analysis, starting as ever with just a simplified weekly chart.
In current markets, where we haven’t seen many big ranges this was an almost perfect trade set up.
I closed it on Friday at the double bottom area as it will probably bounce or at least struggle to break this at the first attempt.
It may, of course, continue to drop but as I had made 4 times my risk with this trade I was happy to take the money and run.
Get in the habit of understanding at least the basics when it comes to fundamental analysis as explained in the course inside the member’s area.
I find when trading from longer timeframes that it helps me to filter out losing trades and gives added confirmation for potential winners.
Last Sunday was a great example of using my fundamental knowledge to avoid a losing trade on the Euro/$ and hopefully, you left it alone too.
I explained why I was not looking to long the Euro/$ even though technically it had broken the major area of 1.1300 after some worse than expected USA news. I explained why I was going to wait and see because fundamentally one piece of bad news was not enough for me to change my bias on these two currencies.
Please register for this week’s Forex Mentor Pro Live Training on
Tuesday 18th June 2019at 11:00 AM BST (London Time) click on the following link to register now:
We show in real time what we are looking to trade and are happy to analyse any setups you may have found.
A live training session with Pierre du Plessis & myself this week. We will assess fundamentals, M2 Earth & Sky & fundamentals for potential trades. Followed by a Q & A session.
After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar.
If you miss it, you will find a recording here on the blog, later the same day.
The key to successful trading is how MUCH you win, not how many.
Trading Week Ahead
I spoke last week about the dangerous world we live in with talk of war with the USA and Iran and even China. It was only talk at that point, but the events in the Gulf of Oman mean it becomes more volatile and a time for cool heads. Neither side are famous for that! Oil surged on Friday and will continue to be heavily influenced by the middle east uncertainty.
If oil shoots up then the Canadian $ should strengthen and therefore the Cad will fall (confusing for newbies, I know)! If you are trading the Cad you must pay attention to oil and the news.
Talking of news, there is a lot this week. The biggest being the FOMC rate, statement and following press conference. Trump has been berating Fed chair Powell again at the weekend and is trying to put pressure on the Fed to cut rates. If they do (seems unlikely this month at least) or even give a hint of cuts this year, that should weaken the USD and then we may see a change of direction on the majors so it’s a HUGE event. Do not take trades a few hours before this news and wait for the dust to settle afterwards.
There is also a lot of big UK news, there are rumours of a potential rate rise, which seems to be out of step with current data, but if they do raise rates the Gbp should move up. Conversely, there are rumours about potential €uro rate cuts (its currently at 0% so we may see a negative interest rate, like Switzerland’s -0.75%).
See the video for my thoughts about all of this and how I recommend to play it.
Euro/Nzd: 1.7900 for a short and 1.6600 are my forward order A grade setups.
Gbp/Cad: This looks interesting to short at 1.7200 area for multiple reasons. Intraday watch 1.7000
GBP/$: I am leaving alone unless we see positive data and the Gbp shoots up. If so 1.3000 is the best place for me.
Intraday watch 1.2900. Best advice keep your eye on UK news here: https://www.newsnow.co.uk/h/
Euro/Gbp: Technically I am looking for a long at 0.8780/8800. Swing traders will be interested to short at 0.8920. Personally, I would prefer it to break there, then pull back to go long.
Euro/$: The areas to watch: 1.1300 for a short (main one). 1.1200 is worth watching intraday. The other option is a swing trade up at 1.1100
Aud: 0.7000 is STILL the big area to short on a pullback. Swing traders will be interested to long from its current position, but not for me.
Nzd/$ Same with the Nzd my bias is still to short, so if it pulls back up to 0.6700 I will short it again. If it surprises everybody and spikes higher after all the news I will short at 0.6800
0.6500 is a HUGE area. It’s a weekly trend line that goes back to 2009! Swing traders will look to long there, half stake as its counter-trend.
$/Yen: I am interested to short at 110.00 once more, intraday watch 109.20 for a short as well.
Cad: Watch oil closely. Any hint of further attacks or military engagement in this region will have a big effect on oil supplies. 1.3520/3550 is the place to watch for a short.
Nzd/Cad: looking to short between 0.8870/8900
New members, please note: If I am looking to take a trade long, for example, 1.5000, I place my order 10 pips above & 10 pips below for a short. This is because price often does not quite reach a major line and you need to allow for spreads. We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself.
For more up to the minute, updates do not forget to drop by the forum in Pierre’s corner.
Watch the video for more detailed explanations of this week’s detailed analysis and trade plan.
Click on the square button bottom right to watch in full-screen mode