Hi, this is my analysis and trading plan for the week ahead;
I posted this on Sunday before the markets opened.
I said in last Sunday’s post “there are lots of technical clues of possible pending price reversals at the moment.
There is macd divergence on a lot of pairs on both daily and even weekly charts.”
This was the first clue as to possible pullbacks or even reversals.
Then on Monday in the forum, Pierre posted his “Quick Quack” update showing pairs his software had highlighted.
It was mainly the same pairs but for different reasons.
Get in the habit of checking out BOTH of our analysis and the updates.
Late Thursday I scratched my Aud short as it was going nowhere and I advised via the forum, if you were still in it not to leave it over the weekend because of the Trump/China talks.
So the strategy is as ever, start broad, looking at lots of pairs on weekly charts. Narrow it down to 5 or 6 tops.
FInd multiple reasons for my entries, exits and targets.
If Pierre flags some with his software, even better 🙂
The key to successful trading is how MUCH you win, not how many.
The forex week ahead
Trump and Chinas President Xi announced that trade talks will resume.
We have no idea how the markets will react so wait to see what happens at the open and even consider waiting until after London opens.
The week ahead sees a LOT of big Aud news that means it’s tricky to trade any Aussie pairs, see the video.
On Thursday the long 4th July holiday weekend starts in the USA and Friday is NFP day so I will stop trading by Wednesday evening.
A lot of traders will be missing and NFP at the same time is too unpredictable, the safest option is to take a break & enjoy a 3 day week 🙂
GBP/$: 1.3000 is the best place for me for a short, for multiple reasons: Previous major support and resistance, whole number, 78.6 fib most recent daily move, and weekly 55ema (see the video)
Intraday 1.2770 was strong resistance last week, but nowhere for me to place a stop. Also, watch 1.2900. Best advice keep your eye on UK news here: https://www.newsnow.co.uk/h/
Euro/Gbp: Too messy, no risk-reward in either direction. If it drops I am interested to long around 0.8750
Euro/$: Broke 1.1300 last week. It’s overbought and Macd suggests a short around 1.1400. see the video
Aud: 0.7000 is STILL the big area BUT there is a LOT of AUD news this week, plus the 4th July USA holiday and NFP Friday, probably best leave all Aud pairs alone. Swing traders will be interested to long again from 0.6850 if it drops.
Nzd/$ My bias is still to short, but it closed above 0.6700 and is currently held down by the 200ema. I need it to break and close below 0.6700 preferably on a daily, (at the very least on a 4-hour chart) then pullback to M2 short. If it moves higher I will short at 0.6800
$/Yen: I am interested to short at 109.30 IF it slows down there. If not and it shoots higher I will place a forward order to short again at 110.00 once more, for multiple reasons.
Cad: Not the easiest pair to trade but it has broken a monthly trend line that goes back over 2 years, so now my bias is to short on a pullback. 1.3260 is my first choice ( I will start watching from 1.3220).
Same advice as last week: Watch oil closely. Any hint of further attacks or military engagement in the middle east will have a big effect on oil supplies. 1.3520/3550 is the place to watch for a short if it shoots up.
Nzd/Cad: looking to short between 0.8870/8900
$/Sgp: Thanks to one of my private students, Neita for pointing this one out: 1.3600 is a good area to consider a short (see the video)
If it drops below 1.3480 (ideally below 1.3440) THEN pulls back I will also look for an M2 short.
Euro/Nzd: One to watch for a swing trade long around 1.6900
Nzd/Cad: Possible short at 0.8900
New members, please note: If I am looking to take a trade long, for example, 1.5000, I place my order 10 pips above & 10 pips below for a short. This is because price often does not quite reach a major line and you need to allow for spreads. We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself.
For more up to the minute, updates do not forget to drop by the forum in Pierre’s corner.
Watch the video for more detailed explanations of this week’s detailed analysis and trade plan.
Click on the square button bottom right to watch in full-screen mode