Global Macro and FX plan

It is MLK day in the USA on Monday which is usually a slow day for trading forex and the US stock markets are closed. I recorded the video on Saturday morning so if things change in the middle east, Russia etc then I would need to make some tweaks in my plan. I will update you in the live training session on Tuesday.

I’m mentioning this because The U.S and U.K have carried out strikes in Yemen, so there could be a possible war scenario if things escalate on the weekend. This could result in a gap at market open. Hence why you do not leave trades open on the weekends, as your stop could be jumped, resulting in a bigger loss.

U.S and UK strike in Yemen

This week we also have the World Economic Forum. It is attended by central bankers, prime ministers, finance ministers, trade ministers, and business leaders from over 90 countries. They discuss several things and sometimes some of the things they come up with are quite scary. They are also people who don’t follow what they preach, they come in private jets and tell the world to save fuel. How does that work then?

Talking about speeches during this event. President Lagarde speaks on a topic called “How to Trust Economics”. She is the head of the ECB and is the same person who came out in December 2022 saying she saw inflation “coming from nowhere” Well, it sounds pretty stupid when you are the head of a central bank which is one of the biggest in the world, and doesn’t understand basic economics. A year before in 2021 she explained how inflation is a little hump and it should be back to normal in 2022. Well, what happened? It tripled!.  Yet she is going to give a speech on how to trust economics. Very Bizzare!

Lagarde Little hump

Lagarde inflation statement

Eurozone inflation tripling in 2022

WEF MEETING

If you are struggling to understand fundamentals then again I strongly suggest reading Marc Chandler’s articles as he is very good with his analysis.

http://www.marctomarket.com/

The Forex Week Ahead+++++++++++++++++++++++

Monday is Martin Luther King day so it is a public holiday in the U.S. Expect it to be slow unless something kicks off in the Gulf.  You also have plenty of news releases. Tuesday CAD CPI.  Wednesday is an important day for the GBP as the y/y CPI is released. US core retail sales is also released later in the day. On Thursday AUD employment news and you have the WEF event running during the week. The markets should most likely pick up the volatility this week.

++++++++++++++++++

MAJORS

The $index is now in a daily downtrend. Like oil it came back and retested before dropping again. I show in the video how on the monthly there are numerous clues of probable more $ weakness.

Remember I am looking for “A” grade trades from weekly & daily charts that I can place the orders and then just walk away. A “B” grade is one that I will watch on 4 hour timeframes to see how it reacts if it hits my zone.

EUR/USD: I have my order in for a long at 1.08120. We need a catalyst to push it down there.

USD/CHF: No multiple reasons for the short, but keep your eye on it and the dollar index as they are correlated.

Do not take the Euro/$ & Chf at the same time. They are correlated so it’s the same “bet.”

GBP/USD: Messy. Not confident, leaving alone for now.

AUD/USD: Missed it this week due to the spread but I would long again at 0.6650.

NZDUSD: Could be looking at 0.6150 to long, we have multiple reasons. Looks more interesting than the GBP or Euro.

USD/CAD: Worked perfectly to the pip on Thursday touching the 55 weekly EMA.

USDYEN: I continue to ignore the Yens until we get to an area where we have multiple reasons for a stop. At the moment I would just be gambling.

CROSSES

Some are A grades where I will place forward orders, most pairs have “areas of interest.” I have a lot of similar crosses so be very careful with the correlation.

EURGBP:  I now have multiple reasons to short between 0.8635 & 0.8645. I will split the entry.

GBPNZD and GBPAUD: Both are correlated and very messy at the moment. Need a break above the trendline to take a long.

GBPCAD: Needs a big pullback, but anything can happen in forex. 1.6840 would be interesting for a long.

EURCAD: Would split the order at 1.4565 and 1.4535.

AUDCAD: not interested, but NZDCAD looks more interesting. watch the video.

I have quite a few other “possibles” that I will monitor during the week. See the video. I also show areas I will look to buy metals on pullbacks and crypto and miners.

As always, remember correlation! 

New members, please note: If I am looking to take a trade long, for example, 1.5000, I place my order 10 pips above & 10 pips below for a short. This is because price often does not quite reach a major line and you need to allow for spreads.

We are NOT a “tipping service” we aim to teach you how to trade for yourself.

Watch the video below for more detailed explanations of this week’s analysis and trade plan (click the 4 arrows bottom right to view full-screen):

 

Kind regards,

Marc