In todays live webinar I discussed inflation, the ever-rising debt mountain, the BRICS country’s plan to move away from the $ (they represent 41% of the world’s population so this is not to be ignored). I also looked at stocks and of course the forex charts.
I also showed how markets are cyclical and how to take advantage of those cycles. Most folks know that markets boom then bust. The hard part is trying to catch the peaks and troughs. I did remarkably well with the stock markets recently calling the tops in the Nasdaq, S&P and US 30 very near the top BUT more times than not folks rarely get it right.
Picking the bottoms is even harder. So for now apart from buying metals and metal stocks, I am sitting on my hands with stocks. I suspect a BIG drop is coming, so patience is the key.
The other thing to focus on now is other markets. In 2020 I became heavily involved in crypto and rode a massive profit wave. My most successful client turned $100k into $1.6 million at its peak! She banked over a million. She kept the rest for long term and is now investing with me in metals and other asset classes.
In January of this year I converted the €uro proceeds of a house sale and all spare cash (€uros and Gbp) into $USA. This has seen an increase in the value of my holdings by over 12% and I expect to see more profit in the short term.
All of this, stocks, crypto, cash & forex was a combination of technical and fundamental analysis, exactly the same as we teach you here at FMP.
Here is an extract from a post from 1st august 2022 for members of my crypto site, look how close to the “top” I called it in advance BUT this is not rocket science. This is simply repeatable patterns, probability and some fundamental knowledge. All of which we teach here at FMP and can be used in ALL markets.
“… as we have seen in the last few days there has been a bounce in many stocks and some crypto. Some pundits (the smaller group) are prophecies that we are about to see new highs in stocks, THEN a massive drop.
Personally, I see a bigger drop being the more likely outcome right now. I have grave doubts about a melt-up to all-time highs unless the Fed reverses course. If they do and there is a surge I still expect such a move to be short-lived.
The fundamentals just do not support that thesis in my opinion. I suspect that these current moves are more likely to be a “short squeeze” to sucker retail traders into believing that now is the time to “buy the dip.”
I show in the video that technically markets are still in a clear downtrend & the areas to monitor for a potential reversal back down once more. These are key levels. If they break then the move higher could be more pronounced in the short term.
Some of those areas to watch or take profit or consider shorting are the Nasdaq at 13,500.
The S&P 500 at 4200 & the main area of 4300. The US 30 at 13365. If these areas break upwards then we may see a sharp move up. I however feel that won’t last, so my decision is to take profits and have cash ready if we see a big drop/full blown recession.”….. posted 1st August 2022
Inflation and Recession fears grow
Inflation has peaked in many countries and the worry at the moment is whether governments can get it under control. The cost of living has increased across the world. In the UK it is predicted that the average annual household energy bill will increase to £3,549 ($4,197) from £1,971. That is an 80% increase.
Then we have the pubs, businesses and offices who are also suffering from these rising costs. The government needs to come up with a solution as soon as possible, because in the short to mid term it will be unsustainable for most businesses to survive. The hospitality sector was one of the hardest hit from the Covid crisis. Those that scraped through simply don’t make enought profit to stomach a 7 fold price rise in electricity costs.
Goldman Sachs predicted inflation could hit 22% as energy prices soar in the UK.
Here is a Bloomberg article also stating that the UK is already in a recession
UK in the middle of a recession
Moving across to Europe we have the same scenario. They are also facing a cost of living crisis. There was an article by Alf on twitter sharing one of his friends business bills in Italy. He compared it showing the difference in the 1 year bill and it was astonishing ! Here is the tweet below
Gas & electricity bill for a business owner in the South of Italy (literally a few km away from my hometown)
– July 2021: EUR 120k
– July 2022: EUR 979k
In his own words: ”A holiday in July would have been more profitable than running my business with these input costs”
— Alf (@MacroAlf) August 17, 2022
Here are some more articles showing Europe might already be in a recession.
Germany economy likely in a recession
To add more fuel to the fire, we are now also having protests across Europe. Farmers across Europe are protesting due to climate concerns and want to reduce livestock by 30% to reduce pollution.
This will only increase the price of meat across the continent as if there is less supply of something and high demand the price is likely to increase.
And then we come the U.S where inflation currently stands at 8.5% from the last reading. But they are also trying to hide that they could already be in a recession.
I also shared some stats on inflation and where things currently stand using the old and new calculation,
I spoke about the ever-rising debt mountain that many countries have accumulated through rigorous money printing over the years. This has to stop at some point as it’s not sustainable and is destroying economies worldwide. The U.S dollar has already lost around 92% since 1933 and is predicted to lose another half of it by end of this year. You can view the debt clock below
Here is another article that I found that says the U.S debt is actually much higher than what they have published. As things stand each taxpayer’s share in the U.S is $919,000!
A MASSIVE speech by Putin
There was a speech recently made by Putin where he made some very interesting comments on how the dollar currency could eventually lose its safe haven status and come to an end. Here is the article which was shared by Alf. He is an ex bond trader who managed billions, he is very experienced and knows what he is talking about.
China and Russia have been discussing creating a BRICS currency and both are known to be hoarding gold… another clue as to an impending reset away from the $’s reserve currency status. Won’t happen overnight BUT it is marching ever closer #Forex https://t.co/EOQ4fV1goR
— Marc Walton Forex & Crypto (@marcwalton) September 5, 2022
You can follow Alf on Twitter https://twitter.com/MacroAlf
You can also me on Twitter, https://twitter.com/marcwalton
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You can view the full webinar below: