Hi members,

In today’s webinar, I discussed the recent fundamental events that have moved the markets. I also shared how the governments are manipulating the figures to keep the inflation figures down. I went through some stocks and then M2 setups.

Ashley then shared the E&S pairs and also the shorter timeframe setups.

Day trader Junkie

For the past couple of weeks, I saw members struggling to catch trades so I thought ill do a little experiment myself. I started trading shorter timeframes using 30 min charts. The results?

It was the first time in many years I felt like I went back to my old days when I started trading. I took around 7 setups that week using shorter timeframes. I sat there for a few hours trying to force trades and looking for setups. I was getting addicted to take a trade as I was watching the charts and not doing much. By the end of it all, I was actually quite exhausted most of the days as I was watching the screen too much and I’m actually now in a drawdown of 0.5%.

Conclusion

I would strongly advise sticking to the Longer timeframes as this is what changed my trading results. I went from my Day trader Junkie to a person trading a million-dollar funded account within a year. The big boys focus on the bigger picture, look at where the currency will head in the next 6 months, and invest in that direction. The shorter timeframes have too much noise. As I showed you in recent weeks my M2 roared back and still gave me profitable trades, but you have to be patient.

Fundamentals

After the FED gave clues of raising interest rates further and the risk of recession, the markets saw this fear and bought the $. We saw the S&P500 drop which was the worst week in 2023.

S&P 500 records worst week in 2023

It’s getting more obvious in the sense that markets cant bring down inflation or control it without actually raising rates further. But this brings the risk of a recession recent papers mention.

risk of recession with further rate hikes

Here is a reminder of the US debt clock which I don’t think will ever be repaid. Also, the US hit its debt limit again this month crossing $31 trillion which was increased by Biden last year. So what will they do next? I think it’s quite obvious.

Here are a few sites showing the true debt figures in US.

US debt clock

Here is another website comparing the US declared debt vs the actual debt they think the US accounts for.

Truth in accounting debt

Here are the stats using official figures vs how inflation was calculated the old way

Shadow stats for inflation

Also, it shows that official unemployment figures could be even higher than what U.S claim it to be which is 3.5% where it could be 25%!

Unemployment figures

More pain for the people in UK as inflation figures show it’s slowing down but food prices have increased by 17%.

Food prices rise in UK

A report showed in January Germany going into a winter recession as Private consumption hits a low. As a result, annual GDP growth for 2022 was also revised downwards to 1.8%, from 1.9% YoY. It’s funny how Lagard was trying to explain inflation will peak a little and come down with her hand. Where is she now?

Germany facing a winter recession

Here are some quotes on economists that pretty much describe how they are.

Economic quotes

Heres a post we did on whether candle stick formations are important

Should You Pay Attention to Candlestick Formations?

Ashley then went through the E&S setups and the shorter timeframe setups he sees. You can view his analysis from minute 41.00 onwards:

We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself.