Hi, I have posted a copy of my weekly forex analysis and video below. I have been sharing my trading plans with members of our Forex Mentor program since 2008.
Check out my plan and video below.
Since making the video British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has come under more pressure from home and abroad over a controversial bill that is being debated in Parliament on Monday and Tuesday.
He has acknowledged that it “may” be illegal under international law! Although he has an 80 seat majority in the UK parliament, there are many members of his own party whose emotions range from “disquiet to disgusted.” with his proposal. There are also a LOT of politicians on all sides of the House, newspapers, big money who want to stop Brexit at all costs, so for them, this is likely to be their last chance to stop the process.
On top of that Ms Pelosi, leader of the US House of Representatives, has stated that if the UK bill becomes law in its current form then a Biden administration will make sure that there is “absolutely no chance” of a US-UK trade deal passing through Congress if the Good Friday Agreement is undermined.”
If Johnson manages to force the bill through or if it fails then the UK could go back into Brexit mayhem!
Johnson and his government have a history of making U-turns, although he will try to avoid doing so here BUT the EU “smell blood in the water” once again and are also ramping up the rhetoric.
We saw last week how the GBP dropped.
The next few days are likely to be even more volatile so we will need to pay close attention to the latest news before entering any Gbp trades.
Right now my bias is more short than long. Here is a brief article from Reuters on the subject: Reuters
The main thing to note is that markets do not like uncertainty. As I explained in recent weeks, usually the value of a currency is based on the 3 key areas of growth, inflation & interest rates. The 4th ingredient is sentiment which is obviously harder to quantify.
However, as all economies are all in a mess due to the COVID situation, sentiment is now what is driving prices. The sentiment for the GBP is that a no-deal Brexit will not be good for the UK economy, thus the Gbp is more likely to fall than go up. It could all get super complicated if Johnson is forced to back down. I show in the video the key area on the Gbp/$ I will wait until the markets open, but right now I will be looking for reasons to short it and long the €uro/Gbp (the latter on a pullback).
Australia and China’s ongoing spat appears to have worsened over the weekend. Last week China expelled the two remaining Aussie journalists. Australian Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton on Sunday defended the government’s right to intelligence raids to prevent foreign interference. The Aussie secret service had raided the houses and offices of Chinese journalists who they suspect are spies. Non of this is good for the Aud. 35% of Australia’s exports are to China. Obviously falling out with one’s biggest trading partner is not healthy for the economy!
I will update you on the UK situation in Tuesday’s live training session:
Wednesday is a huge day for the USA and the $. I explain in the video about the need to trade around the news and not through it. The Aud is tricky from the Fed news until after its Unemployment data and Thursday sees yet more potential volatility for the GP- see the calendar and the video:
I have a few trades on my radar. Most of the majors are the same analysis as last week as I am looking for the “big areas” on weekly and daily charts.
Most Interested to trade this week:
Euro/Yen: 124.60 to 124.00 is the area. I will scale in half at each (split the trade in two, risk 50% at each point).
Cad Yen: I feel more confident with the Euro Yen, but same as last week: “82.90 is an A grade short. 79.70/ 80.00 are areas to watch on smaller timeframes for a long”-
Euro/Aud: I will short if it moves up to 1.6440 where I have multiple reasons for the entry and the stop. Swing traders will be interested to long at the weekly trend line at 1.6160 (remember to adjust entry points as trendlines move higher or lower). It worked 2 or 3 times in recent weeks but as you know I rarely swing trade unless I have a lot of reasons for the stop. If not it’s just a bet, ie gambling not trading!
The rest need bigger pullbacks:
€uro/$: 1.1700 is now of interest for those trading the 4 hour. I prefer a pullback to 1.1520 to long.
Chf: Drifting lower, nowhere for a stop. My bias is still to short it. 0.9230 is of interest. I hardly ever trade it, but if it bounces down there the Euro will most likely bounce up. See the video.
Euro/Gbp: I said the other week “Weekly triangle break suggests an 800+ pip move which would be exceptional for this pair. I wanted it to break up, not down! However, 0.9000 is the area for a short.” I then updated you on Monday as to the possible change of direction.
After last weeks reversal I now only want to long and we could be on for the 800 pip move upwards. Always be flexible 🙂 I need a pullback. Ideally to 0.9035. If not I will look on 4-hour charts for a possible entry. DO not be in more than one GBP trade at a time for the reasons stated above.
Gbp/$: It could quite possibly gap down at the open. 1.2725 is key. The conservative entry is an M2 break out below there on a daily candle close, followed by a pullback. My concern is it might just set off. So one to watch at the open then on smaller timeframes during the day. If you do take it, make sure you have at least a 50 pip stop to try avoid being taken out by intraday, news related volatility.
$/Yen: Same as last week: Its not my favourite pair and I haven’t traded it for a few months but 107.00 is of interest to short. If not I would want a break and daily candle close below 104.00 then pullback. The danger is if the new Prime Minister is seen to be a weaker choice it will probably shoot up. So be careful if you take it and watch the news closely.
Cad: Just missed my short entry last week 🙁 when I said that 1.3260 is of interest to short. 1.3000 is huge previous support and resistance I will long if it drops.
an A grade short for me is if it pulls back up all the way to 1.3440, seems unlikely now, but you never know with forex.
Nzd: 0.6500 long.
Aud: I need a pullback to 0.7000. Those trading intraday then 0.7200 is interesting to long too, but don’t be greedy as it will probably struggle to break the monthly 55ema at 0.7320 again.
Aud/Yen: 75.00 is an A grade to long. 76.00 is worth watching on 4 hour to long too.
Euro/Cad: New member Roger asked me to analyse this one. He thinks that 1.5520 looks good for a long? It’s not a pair I trade much, but technically he is correct!
M3 Shorter timeframes
See the new course & recent blog posts in the members area as to how I do this: I do my analysis on daily and weekly charts first and make a note of the MAJOR areas of support and resistance. Then copy them on to Pierre’s Earth and sky template. Then I make a note of the weekly & monthly pivots points and add them to the charts. You will see lots of opportunities line up during the week. The important thing then is to select a bias for the next few days and do NOT take trades if the price is too near a trend line or pivot. Ideally, you want to buy when the price is near a major support and or pivot point line and has the potential to make at least 40 pips. Vice versa for a short.
New members, please note: If I am looking to take a trade long, for example, 1.5000, I place my order 10 pips above & 10 pips below for a short. This is because price often does not quite reach a major line and you need to allow for spreads.
We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself.
For more up to the minute, updates do not forget to drop by the forum.
Watch the video for more detailed explanations of this week’s detailed analysis and trade plan.