Hi guys,

In today’s live webinar we discussed stocks, Indices, crypto, forex & all the clues that we could have a recession on the way.

In the first 10 min of the webinar, I walked through what I am currently doing with my portfolio, which stocks I have sold, and also which crypto pairs I am trading. One of the stocks I talked about, RIG, jumped up 20% since the meeting 🙂

I show how I have been profitable in ALL markets using a combination of my M2 technical analysis, combined with fundamental & geo-political knowledge.

Forex “Tip of the Day”

I also confirmed a great setup on the Aud/Nzd which one of my private clients Paul had spotted. I said in the session it was right in the zone, the daily range was exhausted and if it was going to bounce anywhere, that was the place. I showed why it was the “tip of the day”- hopefully, attendees caught it.

Its +50 pips right now from a text book (to the pip) M2 entry.

I also showed a potential short on the Euro/Aud which now +110 pips, a few hours after the session as I type these notes.

Yesterday Ashley was showing me a setup he uses on the Gbp/Aud. Murphys law it fired overnight whilst he was asleep and it went over 100 pips 🙁

I am still holding (HODLING) my main crypto portfolio, but I did just close out for a 60% gain on ETH that I bought at 1050 + some BTC. I shared these levels in advance.

I also explained many times in recent months why I was looking to buy Gold at $1700 and SIlver at $18, both of which finally arrived in recent weeks. These were preplanned for many, many months. For those of you who aren’t aware I share all my analysis, portfolio and other investing idea’s that we can use to grow our cash with members of my other website. More importantly how to protect our money against inflation in these current times.

You can view our other blog posts here

https://www.forexmentorpro.com/blog/

Clues of a recession

Germany’s retail sales posted the biggest year-on-year slump since 1994. German bonds are negative, they are on the verge of recession & folks are not spending. The Eurozone faces its biggest challenge EVER. If the top dogs in Europe are in crisis then no one is left to bail out the rest.

German retail sales slump

Make sure to keep your eyes on the yellow flag news as well. At the moment as things stand analysts and institutions are starting to pay more attention to these figures. They are trying to measure if things are getting worse or better and if inflation is slowing down.

I am also quite active on Twitter and have shared numerous articles for the past few months on my profile. You can follow me there:

https://twitter.com/marcwalton

US and China tensions

Elsewhere Pelosi is planning to visit Taiwan today and rumours are she is already on her way. This is huge politically and could also cause more tension between U.S and China.
Taiwan is home to the world’s biggest manufacturer of semiconductors on contract, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSMC). Their shares dropped slightly this morning.

Taiwanese stocks (.TWII) dropped 1.6%, marking their biggest percentage decline in three weeks.

Other semi- conductor and U.S chip stocks also took a hit today and could continue depending on the outcome of Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. But things could get ugly if the meeting does not go according to plan.
https://www.reuters.com/technology/semiconductor-stocks-under-pressure-taiwan-tensions-mount-2022-08-02/

China also banned 35 Taiwanese food exporters in warning ahead of Pelosi’s visit. In 2021, China’s imports from Taiwan reached a record $189 billion, according to official Taiwanese data.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-bans-35-taiwanese-food-exporters-warning-ahead-pelosi-visit-2022-08-02/

This could affect Taiwan’s GDP immensely as China is their major importer of goods and make up nearly 30%.

RBA

Lastly RBA increased their interest rates by 50 bps. Their statement was quite positive, but they did mention that the housing market was slowing down and house prices have dropped.
Could this be another clue that a recession is on the way?

The AUD dropped because the RBA. made a comment that future interest rate hikes would depend solely on data that they receive. So they gave a sign that they could possibly slow down their interest rate hikes. Traders took this as dovish, which is why we saw the AUD drop this morning.

You can view the full webinar below: (click on the arrows bottom right to view full screen).