Hi guys, I often talk about probability when it comes to trading from a technical perspective. I do use fundamental analysis (what is happening in the economies of the pairs I trade) but technically I am simply looking at pattern recognition. If price reacted in an area previously on at least a daily chart on numerous occasions, that piques my interest.
Then I go to a weekly or even a monthly chart and look for other reasons to support my theory and especially “multiple reasons/confluence” in the same place. I want to find an area that has a major trendline, and/or previous major support and resistance, and or the only emas I use these days, namely the 55ema and 200ema on multiple timeframes.
Then I will look at Fibonacci levels and anything else to pinpoint the entry, stop and thus calculate the risk-reward.
<em><strong>Without knowing the risk-reward ratio it’s not possible to estimate whether a trade is viable or not.</strong></em> The final part of the puzzle is, what news is due in the days ahead and how might that ruin the trade.
I wrote an article last year about probability which you can find here -if you are new the title is “tongue in cheek :):
In recent weeks, especially last Sunday I have emphasised the need for folks to better understand what’s happening around the financial world. How all markets are interlinked. How the big boys rig the game and (I know you will be shocked), how politicians and central bankers lie.
More importantly the steps you need to take to protect your family and even prosper in the coming storm ahead. Crypto was one of my solutions last year. Some of my members made over 1000% growth last year. Ethereum alone is up over 2000% for beta members who joined me in May 2020 and 983%. Gold on the other hand, which is historically the ultimate “safe haven” dropped 7% over the period.
Check out my introduction to crypto course here:
Especially watch the “Why I believe in the crypto boom” recording of the webinar I hosted on the 28th October 2020 when Bitcoin was $13,300 and Ethereum was just $188 and see how much I got right.
How much is still relevant today and how its not too late. In my opinion, <em><strong>there is still a lot of money to be made in crypto over the 12 months, but a change of strategy is needed.</strong></em> I do expect the BIG 2 to continue to grow over the midterm, but one of my tokens which was not in the top 100 last year grew by 6000% this year! thats what you need to look for.
<strong>I will explain more about crypto and why I still believe it has a lot more to go in this Tuesday’s live training session. I will also revisit using my strategies to pin point entries on stocks. ABout 6 weeks ago I showed the sweet spot on Apple & Tesla (up 28% & 96% since).</strong>
If you haven’t seen my posts from the last few weeks/months, I highly recommend going through my archived posts here: <a href=”https://www.forexmentorpro.com/members-area/mentor-blogs/marcs-m2-analysis/” target=”_blank” rel=”noopener”>link </a>
<em><strong>The M2 technical and fundamentals we show and teach will allow you to enter any market, whether it’s stocks, crypto, metals, oil or forex. It’s up to you, however, to do the work.</strong></em>
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<strong>Trade for clients & receive a substantial profit share</strong>
If you want to receive a substantial profit share you only need to make 3 to 5% per month. You can find a copy of the brochure here: <a href=”https://www.forexmentorpro.com/dl/FMP_Funding_Brochure.pdf” target=”_blank” rel=”noopener”>Trade for Clients</a>
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<b><i>The live training session: Here is a link to register for this week’s live training session which takes place on Tuesday 2nd November at 11.00am London time (BST/GMT+1).</i></b>
<a href=”https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_b8sFt4ZhRPWXhBM6VFZ_rA” target=”_blank” rel=”noopener”>https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_b8sFt4ZhRPWXhBM6VFZ_rA</a>
<b>Then we can have a more detailed, up-to-the-minute look at what’s happening and potential trades for the rest of the week.</b>
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<strong>The Forex week ahead:</strong>
There is a LOT of red flag news this coming week. Remember, I spoke in detail in last weeks video about the 3 building blocks to understanding a currency price – growth (GDP), inflation and interest rates. These three factors make up nearly all of the red flag news you will see every week.
This week its the turn of the USD with inflation, FOMC & NFP all in the same week, so volatility is to be expected. I show in the video how to trade around these types of events, except NFP which I never trade. It’s a perfect time for market makers and dodgy brokers to fleece unsuspecting retail traders.
Then its the turn of the Aud & Gbp monetary policy and rate statements and finally Cad employment.
<em><strong>If you know there is an iceberg ahead, change course!</strong></em>
EUR/USD: Last week it bounced to the pip of the daily 55ema and the trendline that I have spoken about many times in recent weeks. This was after the ECB news. I show again today how you can look for these big areas after news. This pair moved almost double the average range and if you look on a 4 hour chart you can see clearly from the candlesticks that price had run out of steam at an area that had multiple reasons on a weekly and daily chart. “If its going to stop anywhere”………
<img class=”alignnone size-full wp-image-48274″ src=”https://www.forexmentorpro.com/members-area/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/daily-55-n-trendline-euro.png” alt=”” width=”640″ height=”376″ />
4 hour after the dust settled, look at the candlesticks and resistance levels MULTIPLE REASONS both timeframes:
<img class=”alignnone size-full wp-image-48275″ src=”https://www.forexmentorpro.com/members-area/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/euro-4-hour.png” alt=”” width=”449″ height=”339″ />
GBP/USD: I am still not confident with this one at the moment as its in the middle of a bunch of emas support and resistance, but its in a weekly down channel, so my bias is to sell. Areas to watch are 1.3790 or I prefer if it breaks and closes below 1.3600 then an M2 pullback- see the video
NZD/USD: Broke weekly trendline 10 days ago (so, significant move) and I’m now looking to long 0.7110 & 0.7080- split my order. See video for details.
AUD/USD: Its still too messy and needs to make it’s mind up. Better setup on the Kiwi (NZD/USD)
USD/JPY: Hasn’t pulled back yet but as I explained the Japanese government and finance dudes are trying to talk some strength into the Yen (there’s nothing left for them to do after 10 years of massive money printing): BOJ’S GOVERNOR KURODA: “THERE IS A SIGN OF PICKUP IN CONSUMER SPENDING.” expect more of the same.
“A” grade for me is still 110.30 to long, looks unlikely now but its the best risk-reward, also watch 111.60 and 112.60, 112.00 <strong>intraday </strong>are possibilities on smaller timeframes- see the video.
USD/CAD: Tweaking short entry splitting in half to 1.2490 & 1.2530 for a short.
USD/CHF: Did a perfect M2 break out pullback, but on Friday. Looking the same area this week 0.9160 one issue though is a weekly trendline is in the way at 0.9105 where it stopped last week, so could be a limited move. Don’t be greedy with this pair.
AUD/NZD: worked well shorting a few weeks ago, looking same spot again I.0590 BUT be careful with the red flag news
EUR/GBP: Brexit nonsense makes this tricky, but if it gets to the 0.8630 area I’d look to short.
EUR/NZD: Miles away from anything now. Area I’d look at again is 1.6890 to short.
AUD/CAD: Possible long at 0.9250 – see the video
GBP/CAD: I am looking to short at 1.7190 for multiple reasons. Target 1.6920
<em><strong>All the Yens need a big pullback for me. Bias is long so if trading intraday look for opportunities on 4 hour charts.</strong></em>
CAD/JPY: 86.60/87.000 area to long.
EUR/JPY: Most yens need big pullbacks. 129.10 is the area I’d be looking at to long.
AUD/JPY: Same as EUR/JPY, but not as clear. Needs big pullback
As always, remember correlation!
M3 -Shorter timeframes.
See the new course & recent blog posts as to how I do this: I do my analysis on daily and weekly charts first and make a note of the MAJOR areas of support and resistance. Then copy them onto Pierre’s Earth and sky template. Then I make a note of the weekly & monthly pivots points and add them to the charts. You will see lots of opportunities line up during the week. The important thing then is to select a bias for the next few days and do NOT take trades if the price is too near a trend line or pivot. Ideally, you want to buy when the price is near a major support and or pivot point line and has the potential to make at least 40 pips. Vice versa for a short.
New members, please note: If I am looking to take a trade long, for example, 1.5000, I place my order 10 pips above & 10 pips below for a short. This is because price often does not quite reach a major line and you need to allow for spreads.
We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself.
For more up to the minute, updates do not forget to drop by the forum. Ashley is back from his travels and there are other senior members who are happy to help.
Watch the video below for more detailed explanations of this week’s analysis and trade plan:
The analysis starts around 10 minutes. The first part of the video I am explaining the big picture, fundamentals, news etc.
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