Hi, I would like to take this opportunity to wish everybody a Happy & Prosperous New Year & show you the trades I am looking to take in 2014! Those of you have been with us in 2013 will know that my goals is to trade wherever possible from weekly charts. I do my detailed analysis on a Sunday. Watch the market open for possible gaps, place trades and walk away. This is my forex analysis for 2014.
Today we take that a step further and I show you my forex analysis and what I am looking to trade in 2014 and how to do so from monthly charts!
Had you followed my early December forex analysis at least two of these trades worked almost to the pip, a 200 pip gain on the Cad and a 300 pip move on the Gbp! That’s over a months profit from 2 trades placed at the market open!
Caveat: I have done my analysis before the monthly candle close. If there is a sudden pull back on pairs then we may need to recalculate – explained in the video
I am not looking to trade this week due to all the bank holidays around the world and a further caveat I need to add is that central bank manipulation could wreck any and all of my forex analysis, so as ever do your own research and update your plan as the year progresses.
Cad: Worked perfectly in December from weekly and even monthly charts! I am only interested to long in 2014.
Price has broken and cleared all emas and obstacles, and we could be on for a 2000+ pip move to the 2009 high of over 1.3000! The trick of course is the entry. Ideally I need a pull back. If you missed last months then that is the same place 1.0560. If that breaks below I will long again at 1.0420 ( will increase and possibly double my stake here) which is even stronger with the monthly 55ema. Trend line & 61.8% monthly fib not too far below. If that breaks I will look again at 1.0300. Remember we are looking for a possible 2000 pips here, so a few losses along the way will not be an issue. Final option, if price simply keeps going we need to create new areas of support which I will update during the year.
Gbp/$ 2014 looking for longs first few months at least.
The UK economy appears to be recovering better and stronger with less money printing than the USA so logic says it should go up. Logic of course doesn’t always follow in forex BUT that’s my interpretation of the current situation Also worked perfectly from last months chart analysis. If you missed it then 1.6300 Is still the first pull back area.
If 1.6300 breaks then I will be looking for entries further down, the strongest being 1.6000 but I will also look at 1.6100. Once again we could be on for a major run up on this pair and it was over 2.000 back in 2008!
If it keeps going up then I will look for a clear break and close of the 200ema, currently at 1.6650 followed by a pull back.
Shorter term swing traders will be looking for shorts at 1.6620
Euro/Gbp: 2014 looking to short.
I am expecting it to drop to at least 0.8000 and possibly the 2012 low around 0.7800 so it should be a decent move. Fundamentally the UK economy appears to be much healthier and I suspect there are a lot more “skeletons in the cupboard” of the Eurozone. Price is currently looking as though it will close above the CRUCIAL 0.8300. If it does then I will look for pull backs to short, the first being 0.8400. If that breaks we need to look for clues at 0.8500/0.8600. If price pulls back as far as the 0.8660 area (currently the 5 year trend line I will double my usual stake).
If price does drop dramatically and CLOSES below 0.8300 on at least a weekly chart I will short on an M2 pull back.
$/Yen 2014 only longs.
I wrote back in the summer that this could be on for a move back up to 120.00 and technically there is nothing to stop that. Also fundamentally the supposed improvement in the $USA economy (if you ignore the fact they are still printing $75 Billion a month to buy their own debt)! Affects this pair more than most. As ever the trick is the entry. The perfect one would be a pull back to 100.00 of course (if it does I will double my stake). If not then we need to look for previous major support areas. 101.20 is one but if move keeps going then a pullback to 103.00 (my 200ema) is the next.
If it simply shoots up then at some point there will be a pull back so its case of patience, discipline and waiting.
Euro/yen: 2014 only longs, certainly for first few months.
The $/Yen will probably be the more reliable of the two as any unexpected move from the ECB could distort this pairs trajectory. The major area is 140.00. If it simply keeps going then we need to trail it and look for pull backs.
Euro/$ : 2014: Neutral – This is expert speak for “ I have no idea” 🙂
Technically it looks as though it could be on for a run up but I don’t see that fundamentally can be supported. I am convinced that there will be some kind of major melt down in one of the bigger countries in 2014 and if deflation appears the ECB will need to take drastic steps which could see price race in either or both directions.
Shorter term I am interested to long at 1.3350 and short at 1.3800, all explained in the video
Chf: 2014 shorts.
Caveat; the Swiss National Bank has a history of intervening in their currencies so technical analysis will become obsolete if they do. However I am currently only looking to short. IF the current monthly candle clearly closes below 0.9000 then I will look for a pull back there to short. If it bounces back up then we need to find an entry.
0.9200 will be the first attempt. If that breaks then I will double my stake if price gets back up around 0.9580- remember emas keep moving, so if the 55ema falls below 0.9600 later in the year THAT is where I will look to enter.
Aud: Looking for shorts.
IF price clearly breaks and closes below 0.8900 on the December candle then I will look for a pull back to there to short. The Royal Bank of Australia made plain their intentions when they said that they would prefer the rate to be nearer 0.8500 rather than change interest rates, so thats their policy for 2014. I would prefer a bigger pull back and if we get that then 0.9550/9600 would be great and I will double my stake if it happens. If it doesn’t get that far then 0.9400 is another very strong area of previous support and resistance.
Short term. If price closes above 0.8900 I will be interested to half stake long.
Thats it! Lets see how it pans out. Remember when trading from monthly or weekly charts you need to have lots of patience and discipline but just one or two home runs in a year can give excellent returns!
New members please note: If I am looking to take a trade long, at for example 1.6000 , I place my order 10 pips above & 10 pips below for a short. This is because price often does not quite reach a major line and you need to allow for spreads.
We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself. For more up to the minute updates do not forget to drop by the forum
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