Here we are……A New Year and things are looking very interesting!!

I really like the markets right now.

Although there are some unlikely levels being targeted, I have learned over the years to expect the unlikely in forex trading, and never hold too hard onto what I expect, and rather just “play the ball where it lies”.

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The further we go in our trading career, the more we learn to throw our biases out the window and not get too stuck on what we expect.  Sure, I always have expectations and predictions on what will happen, but at the end of the day I realize this is just for “color” and not going to change or affect the actual outcome in any way.  When it comes down to the nuts and bolts of my actual trading, I trade the market in front of me, rather than only trading the market when it does what I think it will do.

This alone, has helped me get much further in trading.  So, although it’s great to try and speculate on what will actually happen, it is more profitable to trade what is there on the charts and I mean this from a purely technical trading aspect, NOT in any reference to fundamentals.  That is a completely different topic than what I’m saying.

The Week Ahead:

We have gotten NFP week out of the way and we should have a much more stable week ahead.  The Eur/Usd is hitting some crazy low levels, but seems very bearish still.  The Yens are all over the place, but it seems to make sense in a way.  Overall, I like the structure of many pairs and think as long as the market IS tradable in the way the price action moves, we should have plenty of options to choose from in the coming week.

Euro/$: Broke and still below the area of 1.2025.  Now coming into 1.1800 and has bounced off of this.  I would think that since we haven’t closed the gap yet, 1.2025-1.2045 is a pretty attractive zone to look for a short.  IF we do continue this brutally bearish decent, then 1.1800 is a no brainer of an area to short from if broken, touched and rejected.

Gbp/$: Also very bearish.  I like the looks of things.  1.5270 for a short, OR if the bearish chaos continues, look for the massive 1.5000 area to break for a short.  I discuss in detail in the video.

Aud/$: Bucked the trend of the other two majors a bit, and spent the last week bullish, but is still very bearish overall.  I would like to short from .8350ish or below .8075 if that breaks.  All explained in video.

Euro/Gbp:  My analysis for the last couple/few months is still the same but we are getting closer to one end.  The 200 ema at .7815 should be the first short spot if broken, and finally we hope that .7750 will finally break for the bigger, and hopefully longer-holding short.

$/Yen:  Looks like a bit of a pullback is going on right now.  117.50 is very attractive as the cross of the daily 55 ema and the trendline we have had in place for a while.  If we get bullish beyond that, we should look to long from 120.00 and then 122.00.  For a sell trade, I would short this pair if broken below 115.50

Euro/Yen: A bit sketchy and I would take a “wait and see” approach before getting too “tradey” on this one right now.  Wait for a break above 142.00 for a long or 137.70 for a short.  The Usd/jpy looks much clearer, and easier to trade at the moment, but a good move on the Eur/Jpy and it could become the one to go after.

Aud Yen: Similar situation to Eur/Jpy and I would leave alone unless we break above 98.00 for a long or 95.75 for a short.

Usd/Cad: Pretty strong uptrend in place and I would continue to “climb the ladder” here.  Areas for longs are 1.17000, 1.1875 and then 1.2000

Eur/Cad:  Seems pretty bearish, and I would LOVE a short if we break below 1.3950 as long as it doesn’t happen on a Friday.  Also could reject 1.4100 for a short.  More details in the video.

Please note: If I am looking to take a trade long, at for example 1.5000 , I place my order 10 pips above & 10 pips below for a short. This is because price often does not quite reach a major line and you need to allow for spreads.

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Hope you enjoy the analysis!! Best wishes and happy trading to all!!!

Omar Eltoukhy
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