Hi, last week Pierre posted a potential move on the $/Yen for those following his Earth & Sky strategy. He caught 300pips in the end, the pair went on to do a little more before pulling back.

I also discussed in the live training session the need to be flexible if trades don’t line up on the longer timeframes. Then how to go down to smaller timeframes, Earth &Sky and below.

Pierre did a “catch up” post in his blog on Friday and I posted the recording of the live session, focusing on smaller timeframe trading & a summary of my trades in my blog.

I manage to find some decent setups virtually every week and I am only looking to trade weekly and daily charts and place a handful of trades. Three times already this year I have hit my 5% monthly target from less than 5 trades and more than 6 times last year.

We also use our technical skills to avoid losing trades and look for clues as to when its time to get out of trades. Last week I explained that the $/Index was probably going to reject at the high, which it did. I also cautioned that those in the Aud short should pay attention to the major trendline as a take profit area.

Forex is supposed to be completely random and impossible to predict and yet we do it week in, month out, year after year!

Are we super human?……

only in the gym 🙂

We look for repeatable patterns.

We focus on probability.

Then the skill is finding multiple reasons for the entry, stops and targets.

Finally, we have a good understanding of the fundamentals of the economies that we trade and we pay attention to upcoming news. Rinse and repeat.

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This week is THE big news week as explained in the video in detail. So we need to “tiptoe” around it and be careful.

MAJORS

EUR/USD: Broke a 5 year support area. Looks like its on its way to 1.000 both technically and fundamentally. Bias is only to short, I’m looking at 1.1000 on the daily for multiple reasons. On short time frames, I spoke last week about looking for setups on 4 hour or less at 1.0830. It just kept dropping and  looks as though its on its way to parity 1:1. Another area to focus on if it pulls back is 1.0630

USD/CHF: If it gets back to 0.9430, I will long it.

GBP/USD: Broke the range.  Only want to short but its miles from anywhere at the moment. The “A” grade short will be 1.3090 which seems unlikely now, but with a big news week, you never know! Better opportunities elsewhere

AUD/USD: Big news Early Tuesday European time. I am waiting until after that. My bias is to short at the moment and 0.7300 is the sweet spot unless news changes it dramatically. No forward orders ahead of the news!

NZD/USD: Brokedown. The “A” grade is back up at 0.6750, again there is the news and again that’s a decent pullback is required. If not go down to 4 hour charts (see last week’s live session recording if you are not sure how to do this:

Aud/NZD: Looks a better option BUT it over reacts to news so be careful. 1.0800 is the area to watch for a long OR if it breaks and closes below there on a daily then I will consider a short (it depends on the news)….see the video

USD/JPY: Same as last few weeks. The Japanese Government and bank have given up trying to intervene. Its probably going to struggle at 1.35 (see the video) not for me.

USD/CAD: I missed my entry long last week 🙁 Looking the same place again: 1.2670

CROSSES

Eur/Cad: One of the best setups this week. I will short at 1.3955 for multiple reasons (see the video)

NZD/CHF: worked well last week again, then the news spoiled it. I will watch the same area, 0.6340 to short it. If it fails then I will only long after news if the emas and trendlines clearly break and close on a daily candle later in the week.

EUR/GBP:  I only want to short.  0.8480 is the level for me. BIG news week though so work around it.

GBP/NZD: Watching at the open for a possible short from its current close position of 1.9470 based on the weekly.

AUD/NZD: 1.0820 for a long.

EUR/CAD: I want to short at 1.3800 (remember I place orders 10 pips below whole numbers for short and above for longs.

AUD/CAD: I am looking to short at 0.9245

Euro/Nzd: Might fire first, same pattern.

YENS: Still too far away from anything in order to trade with the trend. However, I showed last time how you could go to 4 hour charts and quite a few worked. Not for me but see the video for my thinking.

As always, remember correlation!

We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself.

Watch the video below for more detailed explanations of this week’s analysis and trade plan (click the 4 arrows bottom right to view full-screen:

Regards

Marc