Good morning everyone.

How you all doing?

I cant believe we already 11 days away from the 1st of December.

The retail shops already have Christmas decorations up and that annoying Christmas songs !!!

I mean really…..why do they have to play Boney M EVERY year ???

Where did this year go ?

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The Spaghetti Indicator:

The 4 hour chart :

The Spaghetti Indi is flat on most currencies but we have an oversold NZD and overbought JPY currency.

The Daily chart :

The Spaghetti Indi is overbought on the JPY, Euro, CHF and the GBP currencies and oversold on the NZD and Aussie currencies this morning.

So let’s keep an eye on them for possible trade set ups from areas of interest (multiple reasons levels areas)

  • If you want to add the overbought and oversold areas to this Indi…..right click on the RS all Indi……then go to the RS All properties…….here we go to the levels tab…..then add the 8 and 13 and min 8 and min 13 line and click on OK.
  • Remember then to save a new template.

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As ever start with the calendar to check what news is due out, especially red flag news and speeches by central bankers that can rock currency prices.

This weeks main event is the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday. A rate rise in December is thought to be “nailed on” so analysts will be looking for any hints of uncertainty from the Fed. If not the rate rise is probably already factored into the price, but everybody is guessing. Best advice, as ever do not open new trades a few hours before the release. if there is volatility then let the dust settle afterwards.

Its the big Thanksgiving holiday in the USA on Thursday which will stretch into the weekend and Black Friday and Cyber Monday, so lots of participants are likely to be away at least until Monday so things could quieten down then.

I use Forex Factory’s Calendar

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Our wishlist: 

With the daylight saving in the UK , Judith is currently 2 hours behind South Africa so we will be meeting later than usual but as soon as we have a wish list for the week, I will drop a note in the forum.

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Let’s have a look whats cooking in the Forex kitchen for the early part of this week: 

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1) Euro Dollar on the 4 hour chart:

The direction indicator is mixed on the daily……but long on the 4 hour plus we closed 75 pips higher on Friday than the opening of last week so I will fib the 4 hour chart to get a long earth and sky zone.

Currently I have an Earth and Sky long zone between 1.1748 and 1.1692 with areas to keep an eye on 1.1728 and 1.1720 support areas where after I will re look to long this pair again.

Possible counter longs at 1.1850 and 1.1860 areas.

Notes:

While that 4 hour and daily and 4 hour 55 EMA`s hold……my bias will be too long. If price for some reason do break to the downside, look out for a possible M2 short set up.

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2) Euro JPY on the DAILY chart:

Notes:

The direction Indi is long on the daily but short on the 4hour chart. The main trend is still long in my book.

However Friday we closed 115 pips lower than the opening of last week plus we already closed broke last month’s low area at 113.40 so we can’t fib the daily to get a long zone.

My plan however is to look for longs from the MS1 pivot at 131.00 if we find good solid support.

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3) Euro GBP on the 4 hour and daily chart :

Notes:

The direction indicator is mixed on the 4 hour and mixed on the daily chart.

We broke loads of EMA`S at 0.8900 to the downside so we might drop lower.

I will however be sitting on my hands for a bit as it looks like we might be trapped in a triangle for now plus price currently is sitting on that bullish trend line of the triangle so it’s better to wait and see what it wants to do.

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 4) GBP Dollar on the 4 hour  and the daily chart:

Notes:

I don’t like this pair at the moment. We have loads of EMA`S at 1.3172 but price doesn’t respect this level as we keep breaking it to the upside…..then to the downside again. Look at last week’s 4 hour chart. Most of the candles had big candle wicks so we can see there is allot of pushing and pulling on this pair at the moment.

Looking at the daily chart then it also looks like we trapped in a triangle too.

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5) GBP JPY on the 4 hour chart:

Last week I showed you that we can spot MACD divergence on the weekly chart so my thinking is that we might have a bigger bearish correction.

The direction Indi is long on the daily but short on the 4hour  but last week we closed 128 pips lower on Friday than the opening of last week….plus my preference is to look for shorts….so that is why I fib. the 4 hour this week to get a short earth and sky zone.

Currently I have an Earth and Sky short zone between 148.66 and 149.18 with areas to keep an eye on 148.37 (38.2fib) and 148.89 and 149.00 areas where after I will re look to short this pair again.

Possible counter longs at 147.17 and 147.00 support areas.

Notes:

If we make new lows without the correction follow price with your fib so that the short zone can adjust.

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6) Aussie Dollar on the 4 hour chart:

Currently I have an Earth and Sky short zone between 0.7601 and 0.7634 areas to keep an eye on 0.7600 and 0.7616 resistance areas where after I will re look to short this pair again.

Possible counter longs at 0.7500 support areas.

Notes:

If we make new lows without the correction follow price with your fib so that the short zone can adjust.

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7) Aussie JPY on the 4 hour chart:

Currently I have an Earth and Sky short zone between 85.81 and 86.45 areas to keep an eye on 85.51 and (38.2 fib) and 85.81 and 86.12 and 86.28 resistance areas where after I will re look to short this pair again.

Possible counter longs at 84.00 and 83.71 support areas.

Notes:

If we make new lows without the correction follow price with your fib so that the short zone can adjust.

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8) Dollar JPY on the DAILY chart:

Notes:

The direction Indi is long on the daily but short on the 4hour chart. The main trend is still long in my book.

However Friday we closed 168 pips lower than the opening of last week plus we already getting closer to last month’s low at 11.72 so we can’t fib the daily to get a long zone.

My plan however is to look for longs from the MS1 pivot at 12.00  and the daily 200 EMA at 111.72 if we find good solid support.

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9) Dollar CAD on the DAILY chart:

Notes:

Looking at the daily chart then my only plan I can put together is to look for shorts at the daily 200 EMA at 1.2821 and last month’s high area at 1.2900

Otherwise I will re look to long from 1.2656 and 1.2600 and the 1.2577  areas ( 200 EMA, 55 EMA and the MS1 pivot areas )

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10) Dollar Index on the 4 hour chart :

The direction indicator is mixed on the daily……but short on the 4 hour plus we closed 50  pips lower on Friday than the opening of last week so I will fib the 4 hour chart to get a sort earth and sky zone.

Currently I have an Earth and Sky sort zone between 94.03 and 94.34 with areas to keep an eye on 94.00 and 94.15 resistance areas where after I will re look to short this pair again.

Possible counter longs at 93.39 areas.

Notes:

Big roadblock for this index at the moment so possible shorts can set up from 94.00 and 94.15.

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I will be back tomorrow with a comprehensive Earth and Sky analysis plus a video clip for you !!

Regards

Pierre

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