Here is my analysis of forex, stocks, indices & some crypto, for the week ahead.
Over a week ago I explained how I had sold at least part of most of my stocks: I then updated I had sold virtually all of them except mining stocks which I continue to buy.
The markets kept going up and some folks questioned my reasoning. Also I was in a Cad trade last week that went further than I planned. It doesn’t matter.
I was happy to take what the market was willing to give me at that moment in time. Don’t beat yourself up if prices keep going as long as you stuck to your plan. If you just panicked then that is a different matter!
I show in the analysis video at the bottom of the page how I am looking to buy more mining stocks if they continue to drop and gold at $1700 and silver at $18. Anything lower I will continue to buy, not financial advise and I do not trade metals and never use leverage.
Here is a short clip taken from a live session with a student where I explained how and why I took the Cad last week. This is not my usual strategy but I noticed the move and the daily range was fairly small at this point so I took it. It went to my target and I took 65 pips. It went further, eventually stopping where? You guessed it to the pip at $1.30 which I may have mentioned a few (100) times in the last few months 🙂
This week the central bank leaders and finance ministers meet at Jackson hole which like Davros, is a time when the big finance dudes and central bankers get together to plot!
as ever look behind the news…..
I explain how in Tuesday’s session, I said I expected the euro to hit parity again and It almost did.
I expect it to go lower but the ECB nor the US want that and it may well not happen this week. I wouldn’t buy it as there aren’t multiple reasons for the stop and I won’t sell where it is as the probability is not in my favour!
The Eurozone is in a mess and the P.I.G countries have been dragging the euro economy down with it as they are in severe debt. Germany is now on the verge of a recession.
The Euro zone is in trouble. It had one growth engine – Germany – and that growth engine is now in serious trouble, as it was predicated on cheap Russian energy. That’s over. What’s left are massive trade deficits, less growth & less room to help those with huge debt overhangs… pic.twitter.com/ckFaZHHANv
— Robin Brooks (@RobinBrooksIIF) August 19, 2022
Energy and production prices have gone up in the Euro
Also the UK pay fell at the fastest rate on record as inflation hits wage rises. Yes they are up over 5% but as the Bank of England are forecasting the current 10% to at least go to 13% before the year end then clearly that is not good for people, ergo the economy.
You can follow me on Twitter where I show Tweets from folks who follow including analysts from Europe, the Uk and USA. There is a drip-drip of negative news all around the world, so keeping up with it is important:
https://twitter.com/marcwalton
The Forex Week Ahead
The $ index helped again in longing cad and CHF last week and I recommend that you continue to follow it on the daily.
I explain in the video that even yellow flag news can be important at the moment. Fx pairs rarely turn on a dime. More often than not it’s the aforementioned “drip-drip” of data that is the slower catalyst.
This week the BIG event is Jackson hole, if one of the members does say something the markets could be volatile. Tuesday could be very volatile as you have the Flash services and Manufacturing figures released. Also on Thursday, you have the German Final GDP q/q. Remember Germany is the powerhouse of Europe and if GDP is dropping that is not a good sign for the EURO,
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MAJORS
Remember I am looking for “A” grade trades from weekly & daily charts that I can place the orders and then just walk away.
EUR/USD: I’m leaving the Euro alone for now as it’s coming to parity again. No multiple reasons for the stop. I will look to short at 1.0300
USD/CHF: Looking to long at 94.70 and 95.00
GBP/USD: leaving alone for now. Not an A grade. Personally wouldn’t touch it, better opportunities elsewhere.
AUD/USD: missed it and went 250 :(. Looking for a short at 0.7000 short and 0.7100
NZDUSD: Only looking to short at 0.65500. Intraday 0.6450
USD/CAD: stopped to the pip at 1.30- I think I mentioned it a few times over the last 15 years! I wouldnt touch it in the current area. Swing traders will of course look to short.
CROSSES
EURCAD: seems unlikely now but 1.3690 is the sweet spot. watch 1.3370 intraday.
EURGBP: Need a clear break above or below the EMAs on the daily as shown in the video. its messy at the moment, better opportunities elsewhere.
EURNZD: Interesting on a Daily to short at 1.6470 and 1.6520
EUR/AUD: I am looking to short again at 1.4770. Nearly came to my area this week.
AUDCAD: Short around 0.9090/split and other half at to 0.9120,
AUD/NZD: 1.1010 is the area for a long
AUDCHF: Interesting to short at 0.6740
GBPJPY: Not for me but 160.00 is an area to long.
As always, remember correlation!
M3 -Shorter timeframes.
I do my analysis on daily and weekly charts first and make a note of the MAJOR areas of support and resistance. Then copy them onto Pierre’s Earth and sky template. Then I make a note of the weekly & monthly pivots points and add them to the charts. You will see lots of opportunities line up during the week. The important thing then is to select a bias for the next few days and do NOT take trades if the price is too near a trend line or pivot. Ideally, you want to buy when the price is near a major support and or pivot point line and has the potential to make at least 40 pips. Vice versa for a short.
New members, please note: If I am looking to take a trade long, for example, 1.5000, I place my order 10 pips above & 10 pips below for a short. This is because price often does not quite reach a major line and you need to allow for spreads.
We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself.
Watch the video below for more detailed explanations of this week’s analysis and trade plan (click the 4 arrows bottom right to view full-screen):
Regards
Marc
