Weekly Analysis- Be Patient

by | Oct 10, 2022 | Forex Analysis

Defence

Hi everyone,

This week I would like to emphasise the importance of staying patient and waiting for quality setups.

You DO NOT NEED to take many trades to reach your target/s. Forcing trades makes you give back your gains to the market. When quality, high probability setups then do come along you end up playing catchup instead of making a profit or hitting your targets. Quality over quantity! 

Let’s take Marc’s trading this week as an example. Remember, Marc DOES NOT watch or follow charts everyday. He waits for quality setups and combines them with a fundamental picture that he builds up by following the news. You do not need an economics degree, but if you want to trade the currencies of various countries against each other, especially for a living, it makes sense to know what’s going on in the world… A solid understanding of the ‘red flag’ news events and a little effort in staying on top of news events is all you need.

Marc’s plan:

– A fundamentally biased idea of a weak GBP (lower interest rate hikes + poor internal tax decisions)
– Using the M2 strategy to look for A grade entry areas.
– Looking for GBP weakness.
– One GBP trade this week
– Currently 385 pips in profit.
– A couple of swing trades as well (based on the same premise or idea) for a total of over 500 pips…this week.
(All of this shared in the forum)

Marc also mentioned that had he stuck to his own analysis and kept a GBP and EUR short from earlier the year he would have made a year’s profit already! Do you want to trade often or make money? 

Trading should not be a fun hobby or something you like to dabble with on the side. Every time you enter the market you are accepting risk. Have clearly defined percentage targets (in your business plan) and filters that allow you to only step into the markets when the probability is in your favour. Your end goal is to make money, and if you can make money by only trading once or twice a month, that’s all you need.

Remember Monday is a national holiday in the US and trading could be slow.

DXY CHART
Another strong week for the USD with strong job figures on Friday.  Based on this weekly chart, I personally see price challenging the 120.40/50 zone very soon.

DXY 8Oct

Energy & Commodity Prices;

Energy10Sep
Metal10 Oct

Gold;
Small rally this week, but broke back below the 55.

Gold8Oct

Oil;
Rally in the oil price this week. At the 200 ema now, so let’s see what happens.

Oil 8Oct

Bitcoin;
Looks to be ranging now. We need an external catalyst to move price higher.

BTC 8OCT

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The Forex Week Ahead

Look out for the US inflation news on Wednesday and Tuesday. Shouldn’t be trading, but Friday’s Retail Sales is the big one.

News10Oct

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If you want to receive a substantial profit share you only need to make 3 to 5% per month. You can find a copy of the brochure here: Trade for Clients

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MAJORS

EUR/USD: I’d look to short from parity (1:1) -if we get a pullback.

USD/CHF:  Long from 0.97250

GBP/USD: On the shorter timeframes 1.1526 for a short. A grade short, 1.2290

AUD/USD: A grade short from 0.6990. On the smaller timeframes 0.67200

NZD/USD: Short from 0.600, recommended on the smaller timeframes.

USD/CAD:  Long from 1.32700, recommended on the smaller timeframes.

USD/JPY: No mans land. 131.2300 for a long on the shorter timeframes technically, but look for better opportunities.


CROSSES

EUR/GBP: Long from 0.86250 -multiple reasons.

EUR/NZD: Long from 1.6800. Countertrend short from 1.7400

GBP/JPY: Long from 160.530

AUD/NZD: Long from 1.1230. If it breaks below this level, I’d look to short from the same level.

AUD/CAD: Short from 0.9060

GBP/AUD: Short from 1.8100. Shorting from 1.7720 is also an option.

GBP/NZD: Long from 1.9580

GBP/CHF: Short from 1.1740

NZD/JPY: 82.00 is key. If it breaks below this level I’d look to short. Long from 77.400 (See video)

AUD/JPY: Looking on the 4H- Long from 91.400. Short from 93.500

As always, remember correlation! –Especially when taking more than one JPY trade!

We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself.

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Watch the video below for more detailed explanations of this week’s analysis and trade plan (click the 4 arrows bottom right to view full-screen):

Regards
Thinus

Related posts:

Improve credit card scoreLive session recording: Updates & External factors CheckEnd of the year and ahead outlook Trade updateSet ups for the week funding140 pips on USDCHF

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