Hi, this is a copy of the weekly analysis I share with members on a Sunday, before the markets open.
Yesterday (Monday) I sent them a warning about the GBP as the UK Government have given an ultimatum to the EU about Brexit.
My best advice is to wait for bigger pullbacks on all GBP pairs as this development is unlikely to be seen as a positive one!
Notes from Sunday:
We had an eventful week just gone.
It looked as though the expected drop in US stocks had started, only for price to stop at the trend line. Crypto is down around 20%, oil is dropping, so we could see some nervousness this coming week.
On top of all of that the Swiss National Bank have again been speaking about intervening in their currency again, which we discussed in last weeks live training session.
The Chf is seen as the ultimate safe haven currency.
However this causes problems for the Swiss, who put simply, do not want your money!
If the Swiss franc becomes too strong then their exports will be too expensive.
To deal with this the interest rate is currently -0.75%. Put money in a bank in Switzerland and they charge you.
Another way that they weaken their currency is by intervening in the currency markets. The consider this to be essential, see this recent article in Bloomberg to find out more: Swiss banks intervention
They have been talking about it once more and even in relation to the $USA so be ultra careful with all Chf pairs this week.
If you are new to forex, then back in 2015 the actions of the Swiss National Bank resulted in a lot of forex brokers and traders going bust! See Here
This is what a 2000+ pip drop looks like! ANy trade who was long, saw their stops jumped by a huge amount.
Last weeks NFP was better than expected for the USA and worse for Canada and yet the Cad ($USA/CANADIAN $) still dropped. There is big Canadian interest rate news and more importantly, the rate statement this coming Wednesday so do not take any new Cad trades around that time. If the data or tone is much worse than expected then the Cad could well bounce back up again from 1.3000 so its definitely one to watch. Last week we had a 100 pip win from it and its definitely the major area.
Also, many pairs, as I had expected, stalled. The Gbp/Euro/Aud/Nzd all failed to break higher and the Chf and Cad halted their drop. Avoiding losing trades is just as important as finding winners!
All the majors are correlated to some degree and at the moment, its around 90%. If you are not sure what that means then correlation is explained here:
I also explained it in detail in last weeks live training session:
I have a few trades on my radar. Most of the majors its the same analysis as last week as I am looking for the “big areas” on weekly and daily charts.
Most Interested to trade this week:
Gbp/Cad I will long again at 1.7240. However, it may not pullback that much in which case 73.00 is the area to watch on a 4 hour- see the video. Be careful at the market open with this pair as the spreads often widen dramatically.
Euro/Yen: 124.60 to 124.00 is the area. I will scale in half at each (split the trade in two, risk 50% at each point).
Cad Yen: I feel more confident with the Euro Yen, but same as last week: “82.90 is an A grade short. 79.70/ 80.00 are areas to watch on smaller timeframes for a long”-
Euro/Aud: I will short if it moves up to 1.6440 where I have multiple reasons for the entry and the stop. Swing traders will be interested to long at the weekly trend line at 1.6150. It worked last week but as you know I rarely swing trade unless I have a lot of reasons for the stop. If not its just a bet, ie gambling not trading!
The rest need bigger pullbacks:
€uro/$: I show in the video why 1.1700 is now of interest for those trading the 4 hour. I prefer a pullback to 1.1520 to long.
Chf: Drifting lower, nowhere for a stop. My bias is still to short it. 0.9230 is of interest. I hardly ever trade it, but if it bounces down there the Euro will most likely bounce up. See the video.
Euro/Gbp: Weekly triangle break suggests an 800+ pip move which would be exceptional for this pair. I wanted it to break up, not down! However, 0.9000 is the area for a short.
Gbp/$: Finally broke the weekly 200ema, teasingly stopped at the 55ema. I am only interested to long if it pulls back all the way to 1.3150. Swing traders will be looking to short at the top, but not for me.
$/Yen: Its not my favourite pair and I haven’t traded it for a few months but 107.00 is of interest to short. If not I would want a break and daily candle close below 104.00 then pullback. The danger is if the new Prime MInister is seen to be a weaker choice it will probably shoot up. So be careful if you take it and watch the news closely.
Cad: Worked last week for 100 pips 1.3260 is of interest to short. 1.3000 is huge previous support and resistance I will long if it drops.
Nzd & Aud, hopefully, I kept you of losers last week. They are both too high and trapped between Emas and we don’t have multiple reasons for the stops = so have poor risk versus reward
I need bigger pullbacks on both, explained in the video. Nzd 0.6500 long
Aud: Last week I said “Technically it has broken the weekly 200/monthly 55ema so its a long? I am very wary of this and Nzd. See the video”….. its the same now, I need a pullback to 0.7000.
Aud/Yen: 75.00 is an A grade to long. 76.00 is worth watching on 4 hour to long too.
M3 Shorter timeframes
See the new course & recent blog posts as to how I do this: I do my analysis on daily and weekly charts first and make a note of the MAJOR areas of support and resistance. Then copy them on to Pierre’s Earth and sky template. Then I make a note of the weekly & monthly pivots points and add them to the charts. You will see lots of opportunities line up during the week. The important thing then is to select a bias for the next few days and do NOT take trades if the price is too near a trend line or pivot. Ideally, you want to buy when the price is near a major support and or pivot point line and has the potential to make at least 40 pips. Vice versa for a short.
New members, please note: If I am looking to take a trade long, for example, 1.5000, I place my order 10 pips above & 10 pips below for a short. This is because price often does not quite reach a major line and you need to allow for spreads.
We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself.
For more up to the minute, updates do not forget to drop by the forum.
Watch the video for more detailed explanations of this week’s detailed analysis and trade plan.