Weekly analysis: Focus on longer timeframes
I have posted my analysis for the week ahead. Lately, we have not had many longer-term trades coming to our areas of interest, BUT quite a few seem to be starting to line up for the week ahead.
In my last post, I warned you to not trade around when Powell was giving his speech on Thursday. As this is an opportunity for him to push the dollar up or down. For instance, I showed you the EURUSD in the video. It shot up 30 odd pips and shot down 25 pips on a 15 min candle. The other pairs could have been a lot more volatile than this.
Lately, Japan has also been trying to verbally intervene in the markets trying to make the YEN stronger, but it hasn’t really been working. However, you have to be careful for the coming weeks ahead because USDJPY is at its previous record high at 150. Last time the BOJ had to intervene and it’s very likely they will do it again, so it’s better to look elsewhere rather than looking for trouble. The same goes for all YEN cross pairs as they are correlated.
I do recommend reading Marc Chandler’s article as he discusses all the things that have been going on lately in the world including Powell’s speech. Link to the article below
Week Ahead: Q3 US GDP to Underscore Divergence, while ECB and Bank of Canada Stand Pat
The Forex Week Ahead+++++++++++++++++++++++
For the week ahead NZD has a bank holiday at the start of the week so best not to trade the pair. On Tuesday you have a lot of news especially the manufacturing figures so it’s best to not trade until all of that is due out. Then, on Wednesday AUD CPI will decide their interest rate decision and the CAD rate statement so make sure to not trade it until the press conference is out. Finally, EUR finance rate on Thursday afternoon UK time so don’t be in any EUR pairs before or try to at least Take profit and close the trade. As ever make a plan for whichever pair you are looking to trade.
MAJORS
Keep watching the $index it is now at a major “make your mind up” area once again on the weekly charts. It is now stuck at the 55EMA and you have the 200 EMA just above it. If it could break above that we could be looking at $ strength.
Remember I am looking for “A” grade trades from weekly & daily charts that I can place the orders and then just walk away. A “B” grade is one that I will watch on 4 hour timeframes to see how it reacts if it hits my zone.
EUR/USD: Will still watch 1.0740 for a short.
USD/CHF: It broke a weekly trendline which is a clue that the Euro could shoot up this week. The first area to watch is 0.8970 and 0.9030 as a split order for a short.
Do not take the Euro/$ & Chf at the same time. They are correlated so it’s the same “bet.”
GBP/USD: First area of interest 1.23 and 1.24 is the A grade for multiple reasons. watch the video
AUD/USD: 0.6640 area looks interesting to short. Possible split entry watch video.
NZDUSD: Similar to the AUD. Just below 0.61 area is interesting on the weekly for a short.
USD/CAD: Broken a weekly trendline but nowhere for the stop. Interested to long at 1.3560 and 1.3450
USDYEN: The BOJ is very likely to intervene again so I wouldn’t bother playing around with it. Why try to fight a bank? You won’t win.
CROSSES
Some are A grades where I will place forward orders, most pairs have “areas of interest.” I have a lot of similar crosses so be very careful with the correlation.
EURGBP: Finally a bullish candle I’ve been waiting for. Long at 0.8660
GBPAUD: Ashley will update you on this pair if there is a set up in the forum so keep an eye out.
NZDCAD: 0.82 is an interesting area for a short, but could take a while.
EURCAD: Finally broken above EMAs on a weekly, so possible longs at 1.45 again.
GBPCHF: I know a lot are looking to short this pair, but I would not trade it as the Swiss bank is likely to push this higher as they don’t want their currency to get stronger.
As always, remember correlation!
M3 -Shorter timeframes.
I do my analysis on daily and weekly charts first and make a note of the MAJOR areas of support and resistance. Then copy them onto Pierre’s Earth and sky template. Then I make a note of the weekly & monthly pivots points and add them to the charts. You will see lots of opportunities line up during the week. The important thing then is to select a bias for the next few days and do NOT take trades if the price is too near a trend line or pivot. Ideally, you want to buy when the price is near a major support and or pivot point line and has the potential to make at least 40 pips. Vice versa for a short.
New members, please note: If I am looking to take a trade long, for example, 1.5000, I place my order 10 pips above & 10 pips below for a short. This is because price often does not quite reach a major line and you need to allow for spreads.
We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself.
Watch the video below for more detailed explanations of this week’s analysis and trade plan (click the 4 arrows bottom right to view full-screen):
Kind regards,
Marc
