Hi everyone,

I’m home, so the sound should be a lot better 🙂

There was big news all around last week and the world seems to be in a bit of a mess with interest rates and inflation figures seemingly being manipulated and ‘strategically’ adjusted. We will have a more in depth discussion about this in the live session on Tuesday -link below.

We also had a big unexpected event with Evergrande, one of China’s top property developers, potentially collapsing under a mountain of debt. Evergrande makes up about 2% of China’s GDP, so you can imagine the shockwaves this has (and there’s probably still more to come) sent around the world.

When these types of events happen they send uncertainty into the financial markets and money tends to flow into ‘safe haven’ currencies such as the US dollar and Swiss Franc. This is typically known as a risk off environment as everyone is more cautious then usual. I also show you a potentially useful tool for your fundamental analysis tool box. The ‘VIX’ index acts as a fear indicator and can give you potential clues as to how risky the assets are that investors are willing to invest in. There is money to in these markets, but you need to know what you are doing!

For the week ahead there isn’t that much red flag news, but quite a few ‘tricky’ speeches to make a note of.

Let’s have a look at some potential levels;

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The live training session: Here is a link to register for this week’s live training session which takes place on Tuesday 28 September at 11.00am London time (BST/GMT+1).

https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_lwdKiDYURDGfdBnQ03EJ9g

Then we can have a more detailed, up-to-the-minute look at what’s happening and potential trades for the rest of the week.

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The Forex week ahead:


MAJORS

EUR/USD:  1.1660 is still an A- grade long for me. 1.200 is the area for swing traders to consider a short. If it breaks below the 200 (on a daily candle) I would start thinking of a short.

GBP/USD: I’m uncertain about the Pound at the moment , so I’m leaving this pair alone for now.

NZD/USD: Still too messy for me -leaving it for now.

AUD/USD: Very choppy now, but I still want to short this. Need a bigger pullback.

USD/JPY: 108.500 is the A-grade area for a long for me.

USD/CAD: Really messy. 1.3000 is the area on this pair to watch.


CROSSES

AUD/NZD: 1.0620 is a BIG area for a potential M2 pullback, short. Be very patient!

EUR/GBP: Splitting my entry at 0.8650 & 0.8660 -see video for more detail.

EUR/NZD:  Looking for a pullback to 1.6896 for a short. Multiple reasons for a stop.

GBP/AUD: Interested to long at 1.8560. But this is a B-grade for me.

GBP/CAD: Winning trade last week where I was able to make half a months profits with one trade. These are the big ones I always speak about. I’m looking at 1.7590 again for a short and 1.7285 for a long.

EUR/NZD: Looking at 1.6920 to short.

GBP/NZD: Needs to break a daily trendline (see video)

EUR/AUD: Again looking to split my entry. Areas I’m looking at are 1.60 & 1.50. 1.60 is not a forward order for me though.

NZD/CAD:
Looking at 0.8855 for a long.

CAD/JPY:
Broke a major trendline, so I’m now looking at 86.40. Stop size is a problem on the daily, so I might have a look on the 4h. This could be a major move!

 

As always, remember correlation!

 


M3 -Shorter timeframes. 

See the new course & recent blog posts as to how I do this: I do my analysis on daily and weekly charts first and make a note of the MAJOR areas of support and resistance. Then copy them onto Pierre’s Earth and sky template. Then I make a note of the weekly & monthly pivots points and add them to the charts. You will see lots of opportunities line up during the week. The important thing then is to select a bias for the next few days and do NOT take trades if the price is too near a trend line or pivot. Ideally, you want to buy when the price is near a major support and or pivot point line and has the potential to make at least 40 pips. Vice versa for a short.

New members, please note: If I am looking to take a trade long, for example, 1.5000, I place my order 10 pips above & 10 pips below for a short. This is because price often does not quite reach a major line and you need to allow for spreads.

We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself.

For more up to the minute, updates do not forget to drop by the forum. Ashley is back from his travels and there are other senior members who are happy to help.

Watch the video below for more detailed explanations of this week’s analysis and trade plan: