Hi, price has broken on a number of pairs and is at key levels on others, however, there is red flag advanced Gdp in the USA just after the New York open.
The bigger event of the day is FOMC news and Fed press conference afterwards, today so what to do?
Often when the FOMC statement is due out, price goes to sleep, especially after the London close.
I suspect that we might see some jittery movement this morning, including “fake outs”.
Then potential craziness at the Gdp news, followed by a slow New York session UNTIL the Fed news and especially the Press conference.
I could, of course, be completely wrong!
But from past experience, this is often what happens with this news event and in view of the extraordinary times we are living through, today its more likely than not.
The Fed & especially Chairman Powell, have been very quiet of late, so this is the first time for the press to grill him on how the Fed intends to react to the current crisis and going forwards.
Under the current monetary policy, this pandemic needs to be paid for*
The more cautious trader will wait until after FOMC. If its particularly volatile then waiting until London opens on Thursday is even more conservative.
I suspect that today we may see false break outs- fake outs. I am watching the 30-minute setups for possible trades, if you take any make sure to wait for confirmation and when in a trade do not get greedy. Trading shorter timeframes means you should be thinking of taking the profit sooner.
The following are key areas I am watching on longer timeframes and my bias UNTIL Fomc comes out, then I will recalculate the situation.
(Short term bias in bold)
Cad: Broke and closed below 1.4000 I am looking for a pullback to short
$/Yen: Broke and closed below the key 107.00 level, I am looking for a pullback to short
Aud has broken higher. My overall bias is still to sell, but short term a pullback to 0.6450 is of interest to long
Nzd interested to long at 0.6000
Euro/Gbp long if breaks small range above 0.8700
New members, please note: If I am looking to take a trade long, for example, 1.5000, I place my order 10 pips above & 10 pips below for a short. This is because price often does not quite reach a major line and you need to allow for spreads.
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- I mentioned the other day that Spain has proposed to the EU that an old method could be used to “write off/delay forever”, the debt, perpetual bonds, expect to see a lot more of this idea in the coming months. In laymans terms; “hey, why don’t we create some more free money as an interest-only loan and never have to pay it back”?It was first used by the British back in 1752 to finance the Napoleonic wars and by the Americans in 1870 to “consolidate” the civil war debt so it’s a distinct possibility other countries will come to the same conclusion.Expect to see more of this, because somewhere in the not too distant future the markets are going to focus more on how are countries going to pay for the pandemic emergency funding. I doubt very much that the European & British public will accept another round of austerity measures, so watch out for more of this!